The 2022 Midterm Elections

[romad1]

The classic late break story is coming 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Bernie is going to be in town on Saturday rallying for the Michigan Democrats and Governor Whitmer. Shit on him all you like, but he's been out there in the battleground states working to get progressives out to vote.

[oblong]

I think its going to be a shit show Tuesday and the outcome won’t be good. A dark day.   Given the pandemic and trump/No trump and gas prices/inflation and roe…. I don’t see how these pollsters can demo turnout correctly but there seems to be a trend.  

[gehringer_2]

Well, I can't say I've ever heard an American President give that speech before.

[romad1]

Like clockwork, all those races that were moving to the Rs are now late breaking to the Ds.  

[mtutiger]

8 hours ago, oblong said:

I think its going to be a shit show Tuesday and the outcome won’t be good. A dark day.   Given the pandemic and trump/No trump and gas prices/inflation and roe…. I don’t see how these pollsters can demo turnout correctly but there seems to be a trend.  

The House looks gone and the Senate looks like a dead heat from where I'm sitting. 

Pennsylvania is the most fascinating one to me.... Fetterman was basically declared dead by the press after his debate, and yet he really hasn't lost much, if any, ground in any polling. Pennsylvania is also a case where the lack of a good Republican candidate for Governor may be an obstacle for Oz as well, given that he could lose by upwards of 10 or more.... split ticket voting will have to make a pretty big resurgence for him to win one would think.

[oblong]

My fear along with R's winning is also a situation where R's lead same day results but as in 2020 when mail/absentee votes come in the trend changes and then you start to get the whining from the pols and pundits that "something is wrong" and we see protests and riots like what happened at Cobo.

 

   

[CMRivdogs]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

My fear along with R's winning is also a situation where R's lead same day results but as in 2020 when mail/absentee votes come in the trend changes and then you start to get the whining from the pols and pundits that "something is wrong" and we see protests and riots like what happened at Cobo.

 

   

Which is exactly most Republican legislatures prohibit early counting of absentee ballots. To stir controversy and discontent. 

[Motown Bombers]

Most people say the house is gone because that's what is suppose to happen but this is the first general election since Dobbs and the insurrection. We had a spat of special elections post Dobbs where Democrats overperformed every one of them. 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

My fear along with R's winning is also a situation where R's lead same day results but as in 2020 when mail/absentee votes come in the trend changes and then you start to get the whining from the pols and pundits that "something is wrong" and we see protests and riots like what happened at Cobo.

 

   

It's guaranteed to happen in Pennsylvania. Shapiro may have a big enough lead that they can call it early but I'm not sure about Fetterman. 

[mtutiger]

25 minutes ago, oblong said:

My fear along with R's winning is also a situation where R's lead same day results but as in 2020 when mail/absentee votes come in the trend changes and then you start to get the whining from the pols and pundits that "something is wrong" and we see protests and riots like what happened at Cobo.

 

   

There have been changes to election administration in some of the 2020 contested states.... Pennsylvania can now start counting mail ballots at 7 am ED and continue non-stop and Wisconsin has made changes to allow counting on ED as well, according to 538.

My guess is that PA will go beyond ED, but if it does it would be more like 1-2 days afterward,  not 10 days.

Edited November 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

28 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Most people say the house is gone because that's what is suppose to happen but this is the first general election since Dobbs and the insurrection. We had a spat of special elections post Dobbs where Democrats overperformed every one of them. 

It really comes down to standard midterm dynamics and the fact that recent polling misses have tended to overstate Dem support. I'd love to think that they could hold both chambers, but I don't see it happening.

Having said that, on the latter point, one wonders if the conventional wisdom is becoming a little too baked-in at this point. And what the reaction would be if there was, in fact, a polling miss that overstated GOP support. I don't consider it likely, but it would be fun to consider on Earth 2.0

[Motown Bombers]

These aren't standard midterm dynamics. We've had half the population lose a fundamental right and our democracy was under siege. I can't recall a recent midterm when that ever happened. It's not like Republicans are actually leading polls. A lot of non-partisan polls have them tied or losing. Early voting in many states appears to be encouraging for Democrats plus the special elections. I also haven't seen evidence that Trumpers show up when Trump is not on the ballot. 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

These aren't standard midterm dynamics. We've had half the population lose a fundamental right and our democracy was under siege. I can't recall a recent midterm when that ever happened. It's not like Republicans are actually leading polls. A lot of non-partisan polls have them tied or losing. Early voting in many states appears to be encouraging for Democrats plus the special elections. I also haven't seen evidence that Trumpers show up when Trump is not on the ballot. 

I get it, just not trying to get out over my skis on this election, especially after 2020 went down. People still need to go out and vote.

FWIW, Michigan does have the potential of being a bright spot for Dems this year IMO. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I get it, just not trying to get out over my skis on this election, especially after 2020 went down. People still need to go out and vote.

FWIW, Michigan does have the potential of being a bright spot for Dems this year IMO. 

A Republican hasn't won statewide in Michigan since Trump in 2016 won by 0.2% and there have been 6 statewide elections since. A Republican hasn't won a senate election since 1994. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won 50% of the vote since 1988. I don't think Dems winning Michigan is a bright spot. It's a blue leaning state that can be won by Republicans and that's with Detroit at under 50% turnout. Michigan is closer to Minnesota than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. 

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

A Republican hasn't won statewide in Michigan since Trump in 2016 won by 0.2% and there have been 6 statewide elections since. A Republican hasn't won a senate election since 1994. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won 50% of the vote since 1988. I don't think Dems winning Michigan is a bright spot. It's a blue leaning state that can be won by Republicans and that's with Detroit at under 50% turnout. Michigan is closer to Minnesota than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. 

It's an interesting comparison. Minnesota has a lot more more college educated whites than Michigan, but Michigan has more AAs and maybe that cancels out some.

Where the differences between MI and PA/WI present themselves imo, particularly WI, it has a lot more mid-sized cities that tend to vote Democratic, it has Grand Rapids/WMI, which likely will continue to drift left over time due to the high preponderance of college educated whites and economic growth, and increasingly folks who are settling/retiring along Lake Michigan/NW Michigan who bring their politics with them.

Minnesota is further left of Michigan, but I do for sure believe that Michigan is the most blue leaning of the 2016 Blue Wall States that flipped.

Edited November 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[CMRivdogs]

Pennsylvania has always had the dynamics of Appalachia with the exception of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Once you get outside the metropolitan areas it’s solid red

[Motown Bombers]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's an interesting comparison. Minnesota has a lot more more college educated whites than Michigan, but Michigan has more AAs and maybe that cancels out some.

Where the differences between MI and PA/WI present themselves imo, particularly WI, it has a lot more mid-sized cities that tend to vote Democratic, it has Grand Rapids/WMI, which likely will continue to drift left over time due to the high preponderance of college educated whites and economic growth, and increasingly folks who are settling/retiring along Lake Michigan/NW Michigan who bring their politics with them.

Minnesota is further left of Michigan, but I do for sure believe that Michigan is the most blue leaning of the 2016 Blue Wall States that flipped.

In terms of black percentage of population, Michigan is over double Minnesota and right there with Illinois for the highest in the Midwest. Also, rural Michigan is simply not as bad as rural Pennsylvania. The UP for example was 57-41 in favor of Trump. You don't have many 80-20 areas. Pennsylvania is basically West Virginia but with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. 31% of Michigan is college educated vs 38% of Minnesota. Michigan is 15% black vs 7% for Minnesota. Blacks are more partisan than college educated but lower turnout. If the black vote turned out in Detroit, Michigan would very much be Minnesota. 

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

In terms of black percentage of population, Michigan is over double Minnesota and right there with Illinois for the highest in the Midwest. Also, rural Michigan is simply not as bad as rural Pennsylvania. The UP for example was 57-41 in favor of Trump. You don't have many 80-20 areas. Pennsylvania is basically West Virginia but with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. 31% of Michigan is college educated vs 38% of Minnesota. Michigan is 15% black vs 7% for Minnesota. Blacks are more partisan than college educated but lower turnout. If the black vote turned out in Detroit, Michigan would very much be Minnesota. 

The flip side to that is that there is more room to fall in Michigan for Ds in rural areas as well compared to PA.... trends away from them are likely to continue in rural areas. Which keeps the state close.

That said, those trends are counteracted a lot by trends in SE and W MI. Particularly with depopulation in rural areas.

[Tigerbomb13]

48 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

In terms of black percentage of population, Michigan is over double Minnesota and right there with Illinois for the highest in the Midwest. Also, rural Michigan is simply not as bad as rural Pennsylvania. The UP for example was 57-41 in favor of Trump. You don't have many 80-20 areas. Pennsylvania is basically West Virginia but with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. 31% of Michigan is college educated vs 38% of Minnesota. Michigan is 15% black vs 7% for Minnesota. Blacks are more partisan than college educated but lower turnout. If the black vote turned out in Detroit, Michigan would very much be Minnesota. 

I went to a wedding outside of Allentown a few weeks ago, and on the way we stopped in Pittsburgh for the night. Pittsburgh is pretty cool, but when we immediately left, it was much different. We stopped at a Burger King for a quick bite to eat and it was very backwoods. Pretty drive though. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

It's an interesting comparison. Minnesota has a lot more more college educated whites than Michigan, but Michigan has more AAs and maybe that cancels out some.

Where the differences between MI and PA/WI present themselves imo, particularly WI, it has a lot more mid-sized cities that tend to vote Democratic, it has Grand Rapids/WMI, which likely will continue to drift left over time due to the high preponderance of college educated whites and economic growth, and increasingly folks who are settling/retiring along Lake Michigan/NW Michigan who bring their politics with them.

Minnesota is further left of Michigan, but I do for sure believe that Michigan is the most blue leaning of the 2016 Blue Wall States that flipped.

West Michigan, Oakland County, and a community like heavily diversifying community with a large population Canton Township (almost 100,000 people there now) have really helped keep Michigan blue. As downriver, Genesee County, and parts of Macomb have trended away from Dems these other areas have been there to balance it out. The old "If you ain't Dutch, you ain't much" conservatives out in West Michigan are fading away and aging.

As you said, Wisconsin lacks a major county that is quickly flipping blue like Oakland County or a large area like Grand Rapids to help preserve its blue state status. You can only squeeze so many blue votes out of greater Milwaukee and Madison.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

I went to a wedding outside of Allentown a few weeks ago, and on the way we stopped in Pittsburgh for the night. Pittsburgh is pretty cool, but when we immediately left, it was much different. We stopped at a Burger King for a quick bite to eat and it was very backwoods. Pretty drive though. 

I've been to Pitsburgh, and it was a neat town, but it was in the middle of Deliverance and I was there before Trump. 

[Motown Bombers]

I'm also not convinced the bottom is going to fall out of rural Michigan. Biden won Leelanau County, came close to flipping Grand Traverse which is getting bluer every election, and Emmet County is trending blue. Democrats aren't likely to win these areas consistently, but the NW lower peninsula is trending blue. The rest of northern Michigan is losing population. Traverse City is targeting young college educated now that more people are working remotely. The area that is probably going to trend even more red is the thumb area. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

West Michigan, Oakland County, and a community like heavily diversifying community with a large population Canton Township (almost 100,000 people there now) have really helped keep Michigan blue. As downriver, Genesee County, and parts of Macomb have trended away from Dems these other areas have been there to balance it out. The old "If you ain't Dutch, you ain't much" conservatives out in West Michigan are fading away and aging.

As you said, Wisconsin lacks a major county that is quickly flipping blue like Oakland County or a large area like Grand Rapids to help preserve its blue state status. You can only squeeze so many blue votes out of greater Milwaukee and Madison.

In an era where the political geography is pretty bad for Democrats, Wisconsin is probably the worst state for it. Theoretically you could squeeze a few more votes out of Milwaukee if the suburban counties around them would start acting more like Oakland or the collar counties around Philly, but the trends just about everywhere else are pretty grim.

[mtutiger]

36 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm also not convinced the bottom is going to fall out of rural Michigan. Biden won Leelanau County, came close to flipping Grand Traverse which is getting bluer every election, and Emmet County is trending blue. Democrats aren't likely to win these areas consistently, but the NW lower peninsula is trending blue. The rest of northern Michigan is losing population. Traverse City is targeting young college educated now that more people are working remotely. The area that is probably going to trend even more red is the thumb area. 

I do agree with this, although my point about Rural MI was more outside of the counties around Lake Michigan.

Edited November 3, 2022 by mtutiger