The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Edman85]

On 11/5/2022 at 11:29 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

You like to see this . . .

 

Man, stuff like that is worthless and meaningless. Don't get your hopes up based on early voting demographics.

[Motown Bombers]

We should ignore the special elections, voter registration and early vote demographics and go with priors as in this is what's suppose to happen.

[Motown Bombers]

Apparently the Nevada expert is already calling it for CCM due to the firewall built up in early vote.

[mtutiger]

15 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

LOL @ Politico for this headline . . .

 

The poll is probably an outlier, but it wouldn't be the first time this season where an outlet wrote an article looking to dismiss its own polling result.

Kind of bizarre tbh

[romad1]

One candidate on the ballot.  Lines were smooth and steady.  I saw a co-worker from work and shook his hand.  He was working as a volunteer.  I appreciated that he was ready to deal with the crazies coming for him just to make Democracy work.

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by romad1

[mtutiger]

I'm not sure that starting from a conclusion and working backward is the most sound methodology when making race predictions. The background here being that they put Nevada into the blue column and, apparently, had to move PA to red to keep R number greater than 50.

The Rs have a pretty good shot at winning the Senate, but forecasters in this cycle are making some weird decisions at times, and seemingly based on very little data. Or less than one would expect them to have.

[CMRivdogs]

10 minutes ago, romad1 said:

One candidate on the ballot.  Lines were smooth and steady.  I saw a co-worker from work and shook his hand.  He was working as a volunteer.  I appreciated that he was ready to deal with the crazies coming for him just to make Democracy work.

 

The same with our ballot. Choice between the incumbent Trump toady, Independent guy who quotes 2000 Mules and a retired Army colonel and former county official with an impressive resume.

The election is baked, unfortunately unless the Independent somehow manages to take enough votes away from the incumbent which is unlikely.

Voted by mail a few weeks ago..

[romad1]

29 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

The same with our ballot. Choice between the incumbent Trump toady, Independent guy who quotes 2000 Mules and a retired Army colonel and former county official with an impressive resume.

The election is baked, unfortunately unless the Independent somehow manages to take enough votes away from the incumbent which is unlikely.

Voted by mail a few weeks ago..

Virginia with the off-off year elections definitely throws a wrench in things.   

[CMRivdogs]

Powerball numbers delayed because some state's lottery agency can't get its books straight.

Could be a harbinger of things to come

[chasfh]

[Netnerd]

50 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

The same with our ballot. Choice between the incumbent Trump toady, Independent guy who quotes 2000 Mules and a retired Army colonel and former county official with an impressive resume.

The election is baked, unfortunately unless the Independent somehow manages to take enough votes away from the incumbent which is unlikely.

Voted by mail a few weeks ago..

Hmm… sounds like our Iowa US senate race, except our colonel is a Navy admiral.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

 

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Man, stuff like that is worthless and meaningless. Don't get your hopes up based on early voting demographics.

What, you don’t believe “Youngest Biden Delegate ‘20” and the “Co-host @iGenpolitics_”?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The poll is probably an outlier, but it wouldn't be the first time this season where an outlet wrote an article looking to dismiss its own polling result.

Kind of bizarre tbh

As I think about it, maybe more likely than bizarre. After months and months of a Republicans-will-win narrative, should they be expected to have written an article yesterday saying, welp, guess we were wrong about tomorrow the whole time?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

As I think about it, maybe more likely than bizarre. After months and months of a Republicans-will-win narrative, should they be expected to have written an article yesterday saying, welp, guess we were wrong about tomorrow the whole time?

They are invested in the narrative, for sure.

We'll know one way or another after tonight.

[Motown Bombers]

Florida is likely one of the first states to report results. I think Florida is going to be one of the few bad results for Democrats so better watch those ledges. 

[RatkoVarda]

one last doomsday post; apologies for posting this nitwit, who gets its wrong so often, but not here

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by RatkoVarda

[oblong]

Scott won in 2018 by 10K votes. Desantis won by 33K. 
 

i expect margins 10 times that tonight. 

[Motown Bombers]

Charlie Crist reminds me of one of the boyfriends on the Golden Girls and yet he's still likely to lose Florida. 

[chasfh]

Projection junction, that's their function ...

 

 

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, oblong said:

Scott won in 2018 by 10K votes. Desantis won by 33K. 
 

i expect margins 10 times that tonight. 

Not that I expect Texas to be very close, but I would be surprised if it weren't closer than Florida this cycle.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Florida is likely one of the first states to report results. I think Florida is going to be one of the few bad results for Democrats so better watch those ledges. 

Just hope Annette Tadeo and a few of our Congressional candidates win their close races.

[smr-nj]

17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Projection junction, that's their function ...

 

 

It that wasn’t so pathetic, it’d be funny.