mtutiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, pfife said: I think instead of polling I'm just going to listen to Michael Moore's predictions. He was right again. Plus he drove the sodomobile There are a few people who deserve some mea culpas.... Moore, but also Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg as well, who were kinda validated in this cycle (albeit after having issues last cycle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, mtutiger said: There are a few people who deserve some mea culpas.... Moore, but also Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg as well, who were kinda validated in this cycle (albeit after having issues last cycle) I'll also add myself to the mix as I have been calling for this for a while. No applause necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 One story from this election Another one as well... Have to wait for the west coast to come in, but it would appear that the Ds sort of defied political gravity with how they performed in this cycle. And that, given some Rs running unopposed in Congressional races as well as poor performances in specific states (ie. a "red wave" in Florida and New York and few other places), the gap between the popular vote and House outcome is probably gonna be a lot more narrow than we've been accustomed to in the Trump years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, pfife said: Bernie who? Scuse me? Epic MRA is actually the best poll of Michigan but 538 calls it a B- poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I really don't think we have shamed and ridiculed Trafalger and RCP enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I really don't think we have shamed and ridiculed Trafalger and RCP enough. Polls as information weapons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, romad1 said: Epic MRA is actually the best poll of Michigan but 538 calls it a B- poll preposterous. They are the best in Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, mtutiger said: There are a few people who deserve some mea culpas.... Moore, but also Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg as well, who were kinda validated in this cycle (albeit after having issues last cycle) yeah Rosenburg was going nuts, I was like if this cat's wrong..... yeesh kudos to him as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 so, if Nev Senate holds, and Dems have 50 votes (+Harris) before GA run off, that will depress Walker turnout as they cannot gain control regardless, correct? and without Kemp voters, who held their nose and voted for Walker, that will depress Walker turnout, correct? and if Trump announces his presidential run next week, that will energize Warnock turnout, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I really don't think we have shamed and ridiculed Trafalger and RCP enough. Especially RCP, given that they purport to be a serious outfit and have (despite having conservative political leanings) purportedly serious people running it. Even in this cycle I would look at them based on their track record. But I said it before the election: some of the decisions that they made, about which polls they would include, but also in how they rated races (ie. tossup, leaning states, etc.), how they deducted poll margin based on previous cycle misses, how they made projections that didn't even match their average (Michigan Gov for example).... these were all decisions that were, sooner or later, bound to backfire. The polling industry in and of itself has, and continues to have, problems.... but elaborately unskewing polls doesn't work either. It didn't in 2012, nor did it this cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 lol. Colbert.... 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I was running a couple of errands this morning and out of curiosity tuned into AM talk radio. Bryan Kilmeade was basically doing the usual post election autopsy. He had Allen West on who basically complained about states like Texas, Florida and Georgia whose whose strategies to attract businesses to their states have also brought too many "liberals" to cities like Dallas, Houston, and Austin. This coming from the party that in the 80s, 90s and early 2000 promoted the fact that they were low tax, business friendly states. Now he and his ilk want to criticize them because they attract the wrong type of people. He blamed Georgia's growth on making deals with Hollywood to bring the movie industry to the state making it hard for wonderful people like Hershel Walker to waltz to election victory. What a country! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: I was running a couple of errands this morning and out of curiosity tuned into AM talk radio. Bryan Kilmeade was basically doing the usual post election autopsy. He had Allen West on who basically complained about states like Texas, Florida and Georgia whose whose strategies to attract businesses to their states have also brought too many "liberals" to cities like Dallas, Houston, and Austin. This coming from the party that in the 80s, 90s and early 2000 promoted the fact that they were low tax, business friendly states. Now he and his ilk want to criticize them because they attract the wrong type of people. He blamed Georgia's growth on making deals with Hollywood to bring the movie industry to the state making it hard for wonderful people like Hershel Walker to waltz to election victory. What a country! The flip side is states like Michigan sent their crazy boomers to Florida and helped flip Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: I was running a couple of errands this morning and out of curiosity tuned into AM talk radio. Bryan Kilmeade was basically doing the usual post election autopsy. He had Allen West on who basically complained about states like Texas, Florida and Georgia whose whose strategies to attract businesses to their states have also brought too many "liberals" to cities like Dallas, Houston, and Austin. Having Allan West on to do a political autopsy is like hiring Dr. Nick from The Simpsons to do an actual autopsy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I really don't think we have shamed and ridiculed Trafalger and RCP enough. Lets bolster our numbers so we can say "something's fishy" when it doesn't match up? I think that's what they're really after. Strategically you wouldn't want your voters to think you've got it in the bag. It is more beneficial to scare them into voting because you might lose. As well as the Democrats did in a non-presidential year while in power, I think they could have and should have done quite a bit better. Should have taken Wisconsin. I don't get them, strange vote splits. Ohio is a lost cause, deep red state now who openly embraces several types of bigotry. Always knew there was something wrong in that state. The celebrity shit didn't work for Oz -- Was it ever close? Did Oprah swing it for Fetterman in the last days? (Seriously, the person that made Oz a star goes against him, I think that has some weight). Seriously, based on the debate, I thought PA was sunk, but Oz is disliked a little more than he's liked. If he'd stop his snake oil bullshit he might have had some cred. But the whole "I'm a doctor and vaccines are good but I won't vax my own family because my wife says......" Seriously, what the fuck was that. She needs a "miracle pill" for common sense. Edited November 10, 2022 by Motor City Sonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Having Allan West on to do a political autopsy is like hiring Dr. Nick from The Simpsons to do an actual autopsy HI EVERYBODY ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Having Allan West on to do a political autopsy is like hiring Dr. Nick from The Simpsons to do an actual autopsy Chris Christie was a bit better. Actually point out that the party needs to decide whether they are the Party of Trump or the party that actually wants to work to elect candidates. The whole thing just reinforced why radio is dying and why that stock that was once trading at nearly $70 20 plus years ago is now available for just a few pennies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Unbelievable we are even talking about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Does anyone know how to look up how Dearborn voted? I am very interested. Saw Dixon to Whitmer signs at about a 5 to 1 difference in my neighborhood but I think people were like me, fearful of vandalism for supporting the Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Unbelievable we are even talking about this. I saw John James ads all over TV...............I never saw a single Marlinga ad and that was decided by less than 2,000 votes. Big mistake there by the Dems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) Regarding Christie, Several of us had a theory than in order to win the nomination you'd have to be pro-Trump but that would not serve you in the General Election and that seems to be playing out. Christie is right, they need to go back to being more pragmatic and stop focusing on conspiracy theories but how do they do that........if you have 2 or 3 candidates that acted like normal Republicans in the past and then 1 who is loud and kooky with Stop The Steal and Conspiracies - that 1 is probably going to win - almost every time. They got Trump and now they're fucking stuck with him. Like the commercial with the tow-truck driver "Not..........My............Problem. " (by the way, that guy is an old friend of mine, Jimmy Doom from Almightly Lumberjacks of Death) Edited November 10, 2022 by Motor City Sonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: Does anyone know how to look up how Dearborn voted? I am very interested. Saw Dixon to Whitmer signs at about a 5 to 1 difference in my neighborhood but I think people were like me, fearful of vandalism for supporting the Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: I saw John James ads all over TV...............I never saw a single Marlinga ad and that was decided by less than 2,000 votes. Big mistake there by the Dems. There was one Marlinga ad. Marlinga is a well known commodity in Macomb County. Democrats gave up the district as soon as the map came out. Haley Stevens lived in the district and moved over to 11 to primary Levin. Marlinga had a great ground game and got some muscle at the end from Whitmer, Stabenow and Stevens, but it wasn't enough. James also ran a better campaign than the rest of the Republicans. He didn't get too down in the weeds with abortion, drag queens, kid's genitals, and attacking teachers as groomers. He sticked to economic issues while the national party tried to make Marlinga into a pedophile. Marlinga was a strong candidate, he just didn't have the funding James did. I think in 2024 you may see Mark Hackle take a shot at the district. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Thank You. Holy Shit Whitmer 64-34 Benson 66-30 Nessel 61-35 Guess you can't judge a neighborhood by signage - and the Trump people like screaming they are Trump people every way they can. I knew I liked my neighborhood. Very diverse (by old Dearborn standars), but we all seem to get along pretty well. Rashida Tlaib only 57-37 (compared to the others). I like her but she does need to tone things down. I don't like extremes and she's extreme.........The left side has them too. I wrote my self in for Judge of Court of Appeals 1st District. there was only one candidate and I thought he deserved a challenge. I watch lots of court on You Tube. I can do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: For some reason the link didn't work.... https://cityofdearborn.org/documents/city-departments/city-clerk/elections/election-results/november-8-2022-general-election-unofficial-results/7198-city-of-dearborn-general-election-unofficial-results-as-of-11-30-p-m/file Edited November 10, 2022 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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