The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motor City Sonics]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of folks on the right were really critical of how he allocated SuperPAC money down the stretch, wanting him to start pouring money into places like New Hampshire and Colorado. 

Can't stand the dude, but he knows what he's doing.... the fact that he wasn't spending in Arizona was kind of a tell that things weren't necessarily as close as the public polls were indicating as well.

Maybe he didn't subscribe to Trafalgar?  

Edited November 11, 2022 by Motor City Sonics

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of folks on the right were really critical of how he allocated SuperPAC money down the stretch, wanting him to start pouring money into places like New Hampshire and Colorado. 

Can't stand the dude, but he knows what he's doing.... the fact that he wasn't spending in Arizona was kind of a tell that things weren't necessarily as close as the public polls were indicating as well.

I love how they thought Colorado was in play. That state is basically the Ohio for Democrats.

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I love how they thought Colorado was in play. That state is basically the Ohio for Democrats.

If Colorado is like Ohio for Ds, then *Washington State* (which also was taken seriously in some circles) is like Ds trying to flip Kentucky or something lol

[Motor City Sonics]

12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I love how they thought Colorado was in play. That state is basically the Ohio for Democrats.

Not really........its about half the EVs, right?    We need to swap a bigger state than that.     I wouldn't call Arizona or Georgia Blue states just yet.  

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Not really........its about half the EVs, right?    We need to swap a bigger state than that.     I wouldn't call Arizona or Georgia Blue states just yet.  

Ohio does have more EVs than Colorado but Ohio is losing them every census and Colorado is gaining.

[pfife]

27 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of folks on the right were really critical of how he allocated SuperPAC money down the stretch, wanting him to start pouring money into places like New Hampshire and Colorado. 

Can't stand the dude, but he knows what he's doing.... the fact that he wasn't spending in Arizona was kind of a tell that things weren't necessarily as close as the public polls were indicating as well.

yeah I recall them being pissed at him this election but I think the MAGA sentiment that he sucks predates this election by a few years.  I think it's at least since the 2nd MAGA impeachment but it might be before then.

McConnell is more responsible than anyone else for the current supreme court.  That's more valuable than anything else.

[Motor City Sonics]

The Democrats need to make a strategic move they just refuse to make and it hurts them.   They need to add Pennsylvania and Colorado to the early primaries with Iowa and New Hampshire.   Good potential candidates drop out after IA & NH, two states with no big cities and 2 of the bottom 4 in minority population.   The Democrats need to strongly appeal to the suburbs of big cities and they need candidates that aren't afraid to be Democrats.    Putting all your eggs in the basket of two farm states is silly when it's pretty clear that Republican vs. Democrat is more Rural vs. City than anything else.   You have to appeal to those folks who are tied to cities even though they want to live a little bit out of city centers.    Neither party can win without them and we aren't putting our best foot forward with just Iowa and New Hampshire.    I don't think Biden runs again.   Do I think he's slipping with age?  No, he puts his foot in his mouth, sure, but he did that 40 years ago too, but if it's DeSantis, he'll be 46 and that contrast will hurt Biden. 

I don't know who the next Democratic star might be, but we need that person. If he can find a way to differentiate himself, it could be Booker).  Also, I think Tim Ryan could make a solid candidate. Just because he lost in Deep-Red Ohio, it shouldn't sink him.   Mark Kelly (I think he's going to win) is showing he can appeal to some crossover voters.  No, he's not the most liberal guy, but that's okay, we need someone who can win, and I think nationally he can.      I'm a fan of Katie Porter, but she's barely hanging on (though it is a traditionally Red district).  I think she's a potential for the Democrats, but she'll need a term in the Senate first.  I think she could appeal to dyed-in-the-wool Dems and the women in the suburbs - especially if Republicans make wisecracks about her because she's not exactly a model.    Remember how Trump attacked Carly Fiorina's looks?   That won't play well in a General Election with the suburban women you need to win.   

Abortion is still going to be a major topic in 2024.  DeSantis (and locally John James) were smart to avoid it, for the most part, but in a national election they won't be able to side step it. 

 

[smr-nj]

Katie will be a star at some point.  I agree that the senate might be a logical next move, or even the governor position. 
 

 

[Motown Bombers]

If I'm going to entertain this ridiculousness of replacing Biden who has been the most successful Democrat in decades, it's not going to be with someone from a swing state that we could potentially lose that seat. I'll throw out a couple names who aren't on the radar from safe states; Chris Murphy senator from Connecticut and Brian Schatz senator from Hawaii. Both are fairly young and somewhat progressive with appeal for moderates.

[Motor City Sonics]

6 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

Katie will be a star at some point.  I agree that the senate might be a logical next move, or even the governor position. 
 

 

No,  I think being a Governor of California is kind of a third rail for Democrats.    We'll see when Newsom likely runs in 2024.  He's a potential star, but a lot of California things will be used against him.     Senator from California would be better.   But I think Katie likes her role of being an interrogator, and she's really good at it.    Some comes with facts, asks direct questions and doesn't play games. 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Watching the GOP eat themselves alive has been…*chef’s kiss*

[mtutiger]

Unpossible.

People are tired of me saying it I'm sure, but I'll never understand why it never regiestered with many media figures that Oz was an incredibly unlikable candidate. It's almost like they assume that his polished TV look was all he needed and the substance didn't matter.

[Motor City Sonics]

8 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Much like the Tories in England.  They can't get out of their own mess and I don't know, something tells Rishi Sunak won't last a year.   Looks like their next General is in mid 2024 and I think Labour is gong to take it.    Their own Trump damaged them too.  

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

If I'm going to entertain this ridiculousness of replacing Biden who has been the most successful Democrat in decades, it's not going to be with someone from a swing state that we could potentially lose that seat. I'll throw out a couple names who aren't on the radar from safe states; Chris Murphy senator from Connecticut and Brian Schatz senator from Hawaii. Both are fairly young and somewhat progressive with appeal for moderates.

Nobody from Hawaii can win, they have to be born in America !

[RatkoVarda]

so it appears at this moment that all the SOS who got together and agreed they would commit crimes and not let Dems win - ALL LOST!

way to go America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! U.S.A. - U.S.A. - U.S.A.

 

[Motor City Sonics]

1 minute ago, RatkoVarda said:

so it appears at this moment that all the SOS who got together and agreed they would commit crimes and not let Dems win - ALL LOST!

way to go America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! U.S.A. - U.S.A. - U.S.A.

 

Yes, they should have just promised to steal elections quietly, like us Democrats......sitting in our lairs, paid for by George Soros,  dressed in drag, drinking baby blood and giving Satan handies.    

[chasfh]

30 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Yes, they should have just promised to steal elections quietly, like us Democrats......sitting in our lairs, paid for by George Soros,  dressed in drag, drinking baby blood and giving Satan handies.    

Duuuude ... it-quay saying the iet-quay art-pay out oud-lay ...

[Motor City Sonics]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Duuuude ... it-quay saying the iet-quay art-pay out oud-lay ...

Ah, what's the problem, We're in Michigan.  Satan will protect us here, we'll be all Blue in 51 days !!!!!!

[Motown Bombers]

If in a future election the Democrats lose in Michigan, they should pass a whole bunch of legislation making the governor less powerful like the Republicans do.

[Motor City Sonics]

30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

If in a future election the Democrats lose in Michigan, they should pass a whole bunch of legislation making the governor less powerful like the Republicans do.

Ah. like Wisconsin.........only after gerrymandering things to a degree where Republicans can't possibly win the state

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I am very curious, once we get the full set of county-level and precinct-level data out of Pennsylvania to see how Shapiro and Fetterman did in rural PA and among non college educated voters. There was this assumption that because Fetterman dresses like a normal dude, is tatted up, and campaigned in every county in PA that he'd be able to run up Dem margins there and appeal to white working class voters without a degree. Shapiro, although not sporting a hoodie or tattoos, also seemed to join Fetterman in rural PA. I'll be curious to see if they faired any better than Democrats nationwide or prior PA Dems like Senator Bob Casey and Governor Tom Wolf.

I'll admit in my own bias, that I look at a tatted up progressive like Fetterman, and see him as the type of candidate we need to win back white working class and non college educated voters. If the data doesn't end up bearing that out at all then so be it.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[smr-nj]

here’s my stupid question for today. Regarding the Georgia senate runoff: is it possible for the GOP to yank Herschel Walker, and replace him with someone else? He could back down saying it’s for health reasons, etc. What would prevent the GOP from inserting someone else there?

Would the democratic candidate just be declared the winner, or would/could there be a runoff between a new GOP candidate and the Democratic candidate. 

[oblong]

11 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

here’s my stupid question for today. Regarding the Georgia senate runoff: is it possible for the GOP to yank Herschel Walker, and replace him with someone else? He could back down saying it’s for health reasons, etc. What would prevent the GOP from inserting someone else there?

Would the democratic candidate just be declared the winner, or would/could there be a runoff between a new GOP candidate and the Democratic candidate. 

I would say no since this is a runoff based on existing candidates. 

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I am very curious, once we get the full set of county-level and precinct-level data out of Pennsylvania to see how Shapiro and Fetterman did in rural PA and among non college educated voters. There was this assumption that because Fetterman dresses like a normal dude, is tatted up, and campaigned in every county in PA that he'd be able to run up Dem margins there and appeal to white working class voters without a degree. Shapiro, although not sporting a hoodie or tattoos, also seemed to join Fetterman in rural PA. I'll be curious to see if they faired any better than Democrats nationwide or prior PA Dems like Senator Bob Casey and Governor Tom Wolf.

I'll admit in my own bias, that I look at a tatted up progressive like Fetterman, and see him as the type of candidate we need to win back white working class and non college educated voters. If the data doesn't end up bearing that out at all then so be it.

I think you have to factor in that Mastriano did little to no campaigning and Oz had gobs of money.

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The Democrats need to make a strategic move they just refuse to make and it hurts them.   They need to add Pennsylvania and Colorado to the early primaries with Iowa and New Hampshire.   Good potential candidates drop out after IA & NH, two states with no big cities and 2 of the bottom 4 in minority population.   The Democrats need to strongly appeal to the suburbs of big cities and they need candidates that aren't afraid to be Democrats.    Putting all your eggs in the basket of two farm states is silly when it's pretty clear that Republican vs. Democrat is more Rural vs. City than anything else.   You have to appeal to those folks who are tied to cities even though they want to live a little bit out of city centers.    Neither party can win without them and we aren't putting our best foot forward with just Iowa and New Hampshire.    I don't think Biden runs again.   Do I think he's slipping with age?  No, he puts his foot in his mouth, sure, but he did that 40 years ago too, but if it's DeSantis, he'll be 46 and that contrast will hurt Biden.

Switch out "Pennsylvania and Colorado" with "Nevada and Michigan", and I would agree. 

The biggest reason is size... PA with 19 EC Votes along with Colorado at 10 EC votes means they combined are probably too big and would likely hurt the competitiveness of the primary by slanting the field to whoever would win both of those.

Michigan is borderline too large, but Nevada is still a smaller state and checks all the boxes in terms of competitiveness, diversity, etc.