2022 Trade Deadline

[chasfh]

If a team is going to make a trade with the Tigers, they’re going to want to pick up someone reliable who will help them contend now. Who on the Tigers fills that bill?

Skubal is a guy with more of a future than a present. He’s also less-than-reliable at the moment, so I don’t see how a team needing a reliable starter will believe they can get anything other than up-and-down starts out of him for the rest of this year. Plus, from our perspective, why trade one guy with more of a future than present for another guy with nothing but future across more or less the same timeframe of control?

So I think Skubal stays put.

I see no one on the position player side to deal, and besides, aren’t we the team that needs good position players, anyway? So hobbling our current lineup now for merely a chance at an equivalent return for the future is something even Al can’t be so dumb as to do. (I hope?) So don’t worry about us trading Riley, and no one is going to want any of the underperforming everybody else.

We have no starting pitching outside of Skubal to deal.

That leaves the relief corps.  Who among the relievers are candidates who can reliably help a contending team now?

Forget any of the young guns like Alex Lange or Will Vest, since they also have more future than present, and teams want present. And no one is going to want MLB-level lottery tickets like Angel de Jesus (#23 Tigers prospect on Pipeline), or recently-gimpy guys like Cisneros or Alexander. Teams are going to be looking for healthy, reliable guys who can help them now, and we’ll be looking to deal from a list of guys who don’t have any real future with us.

That leaves these guys as the list of candidates who fill that bill: Andrew Chafin; Joe Jimenez; Michael Fulmer.

I think Gregory Soto, who technically has a future since he doesn’t even reach arb until next year, might still be made available during phone conversations, but Al will ask too high a price. So I think Soto stays put.

I also don’t think Fulmer is a very attractive piece right now, since he walks too many guys and doesn’t strike out enough guys, his fast pitches are down a tick or two from last year, and worst of all, he is having a poor July. Recency bias and all.

So, my guess is that we end up trading Chafin and Jimenez to either one or two teams, and our return will include one overachieving position player we can put into the lineup right now; one stalled minor league position player who was once a numbered prospect but is topped out in the high minors at the moment; and at least two pitching lottery tickets.

[Tenacious D]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the thing is, trading Skubal at this point is probably pointless. Trades by nature start out as a zero sum proposition. The way they provide value is you either find a team in distress willing to overpay or you deal from an area of excess on your team to fill a gap. Starting with the 2nd first - there was point this season went it looked like the org did have excess starting pitching depth - but that is long gone now. Faedo, Manning, Mize, Wentz were all possibilities at one point who are questionable now and Skuball return to effectiveness is also open. So trading Skubal leaves as big a hole in the pitching as the position player that returns is going to fill, unless 2) you can rob a team in distress. But the truth is that in recent years teams have pretty much refused to play the 'all in for this run at the playoffs' game as much as they used to, plus by nature that is a scenario where the team that is willing to overpay - at least in theory, wants to do it in prospects since moving their established players runs counter to the aim of making a run. So there you are back to the rebuild paradigm. 

I tend to think they are stuck. Producing net improvement in a very low value roster through trades is very hard.

Skubal's trade value should be higher because he's already had his TJ surgery, which now seems inevitable for all young pitchers these days.

I'd be OK with trading him, if we can get an impact bat or two.  However, as we know with Tork, and other can't-miss bats like Kellenic and Hiura (to name a few), nothing is guaranteed.  Obviously having some ML success would be a huge plus.

I know this sounds crazy to say given all of the health issues we have with pitching, but if you can assume that most will be able to recover, it's still the area of strength for the organization.  Hopefully Turnbull and Manning are back next season, Eduardo returns and Mize comes back in 2024.  Plenty of wild cards, like Faedo and Brieske, maybe even G. Hill.  And others on the way--Madden, Flores, Smith and Hurter.  Maybe Olsen, who I'm not as high on as others seem to be, but clearly has some potential.  Some of these guys won't pan out or end up in the pen, but we do have both quality and quantity.

I've already managed my expectations for 2023--it won't be a great year, but hopefully more positive with player development.  .500 would be a realistic goal.  

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If a team is going to make a trade with the Tigers,....

I think this is pretty accurate.

The danger is that Al has done the worst when he's been under pressure to 'do something' at the deadline - as in JV and JD. I'm afraid he is going to end up making a poor trade out of desperation to be doing something.

Edited July 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Skubal's trade value should be higher because he's already had his TJ surgery, which now seems inevitable for all young pitchers these days.

 

I hear that type of argument a lot, but some pitchers don't last that long after surgery.  They can get hurt again or even have a second surgery.  I don't know the numbers on the long term success rate.  I also don't think it's inevitable that all young pitchers will have it.  

Edited July 27, 2022 by Tiger337

[Tenacious D]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

I hear that type of argument a lot, but some pitchers don't last that long after surgery.  They can get hurt again or even have asexond surgery.  I don't know the nunbers on the long term success rate.  I also don't tink it's inevitable that all young pitchers will have it.  

I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek.  More of a commentary on the state of young pitcher's health, or at least the Tigers.

[Hongbit]

The fact that Skubal has 4 more years under team control and isn’t a half season rental is significant.   This is the big reason there will be demand for him despite his inconsistency. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Hongbit

[Tenacious D]

Just now, Hongbit said:

The fact that Skubal has 4 more years under team control and isn’t a half season rental is significant.   This is the big reason there will be demand for him despite his inconsistency. 

agree.  obviously, today's start might be helpful as a potential suitor can see him in person, as well as any scouts who might be in attendance.  Not saying a team will make a decision on one game, but if he dazzles, it can only help.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek.  More of a commentary on the state of young pitcher's health, or at least the Tigers.

I wonder if the Tigers 'discovery' of spin has contributed to this. In Fulmer, Faedo and Jobe they opted for guys whose breaking balls were their calling cards, and conventional wisdom has always been that spinning breaking balls is what is hard on UCLs or in Mize's case the split, another high strain pitch. Obviously I'm concerned for Jobe.

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The fact that Skubal has 4 more years under team control and isn’t a half season rental is significant.   This is the big reason there will be demand for him despite his inconsistency. 

I agree with a lot of what Chas said, but a lot of it depends on how much a team believes in Skubal as well. Even among competitive ballclubs, there isn't a "one size fits all" view on any player, whether it be Skubal or anyone else. Because every GM and every front office is different and values different things. (EDIT: Some of it may depend on how a ballclub builds their roster as well; someone like Skubal makes a lot of sense to a smaller market competitive club who values controllability and affordability over the long term.)

Put another way, one GM of a competitive franchise looking to add a starter may feel he is too inconsistent, but another one may feel differently, or may place a high value on the fact that he is controllable over a longer period of time.

Edited July 27, 2022 by mtutiger

[kdog]

Jeff Passan:

Quote

Another name being kicked around, though the price would be exorbitant: Detroit left-hander Tarik Skubal, who is 25 and has four years of control remaining. The issue with moving Skubal: So many Tigers pitchers are injured -- Casey Mize had Tommy John surgery and Matt Manning remains out with a shoulder injury -- that any prospect of near-term contention depends upon them having at least a few decent starters. That said: Multiple general managers Wednesday said they expect Skubal to move.

 

[1776]

That Skubal’s name is even a part of the 2022 trade deadline conversation is a glaring admission of what a total failure this organization is at this point.

[Tenacious D]

4 minutes ago, 1776 said:

That Skubal’s name is even a part of the 2022 trade deadline conversation is a glaring admission of what a total failure this organization is at this point.

agree.  our blackhole of a lineup/player positions would force this move.  really inexcusable this far into the rebuild.

[chasfh]

51 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think this is pretty accurate.

The danger is that Al has done the worst when he's been under pressure to 'do something' at the deadline - as in JV and JD. I'm afraid he is going to end up making a poor trade out of desperation to be doing something.

Al doesn't have to be desperate this time around. JV and JD were gone for nothing at the end of their years, so it was trade-em-or-lose-em. We already have Chafin signed for next year; and Jimenez as a first-year arb reliever won't cost us much even if we keep him.

I do agree there is pressure on Al to look busy, meaning, even if trading no one is the right move, and it is one of them, he may trade for trading's sake anyway.

[Tenacious D]

Just now, chasfh said:

Al doesn't have to be desperate this time around. JV and JD were gone for nothing at the end of their years, so it was trade-em-or-lose-em. We already have Chafin signed for next year; and Jimenez as a first-year arb reliever won't cost us much even if we keep him.

I do agree there is pressure on Al to look busy, meaning, even if trading no one is the right move, and it is one of them, he may trade for trading's sake anyway.

I could be wrong, but I believe Chafin has a player option for next year. I'd be shocked if he opted to come back to this shit-show.

[chasfh]

49 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The fact that Skubal has 4 more years under team control and isn’t a half season rental is significant.   This is the big reason there will be demand for him despite his inconsistency. 

If the trade is to help someone else's future, rather than their present, I would think it's going to be something like ... I don't know ... maybe Skubal for Kyle Lewis, straight up. Or maybe a contender with good starting pitching already might take Skubal today for a down-the-list numbered position player prospect who's on the brink, but who's either stalled or blocked.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I could be wrong, but I believe Chafin has a player option for next year. I'd be shocked if he opted to come back to this shit-show.

Didn't Chafin want to come to Detroit because it was close to his family's farm in Ohio? That might be the most important thing to him, especially since his career is on the down slope.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If the trade is to help someone else's future, rather than their present, I would think it's going to be something like ... I don't know ... maybe Skubal for Kyle Lewis, straight up. Or maybe a contender with good starting pitching already might take Skubal today for a down-the-list numbered position player prospect who's on the brink, but who's either stalled or blocked.

If, to borrow Jeff Passan's term, the expectation is that the price for Skubal is expected to be "exorbitant", I don't think Skubal for Kyle Lewis is gonna get it done.

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If, to borrow Jeff Passan's term, the expectation is that the price for Skubal is expected to be "exorbitant", I don't think Skubal for Kyle Lewis is gonna get it done.

Not that it matters, because I don’t think Skubal is moving, anyway. 

[SoCalTiger]

15 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I was thinking of the Soviet Union  "Five Year Plans"... 

More like "Seven Year Plans" in this case

Ha.Ha......"The Great Leap Forward" - Chairman Al Avila

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not that it matters, because I don’t think Skubal is moving, anyway. 

No, but I do believe there are clubs who would pay more than an 27 y/o oft-injured, past prospect status outfielder. And there are at least a couple of contenders out there where you could easily see Skubal penciled in and getting postseason starts.

Cardinals come to mind, especially with all of their injuries and general mediocreness of their starting pitching

[Shinzaki]

Al Al is every bit the guy at the Politburo who rises in the party because he toiled loyally at the tractor  factory for decades and rose within the party because he outlasted everyone else

[SoCalTiger]

Skubal on the block is not surprising but I wonder if it means Al's influence has diminished or the organization has actually finally recognized that starting pitching should not be the foundation to build your team on. This could be a result of finally accepting that "never 3 timed through the batting order" mantra is here to stay, or the new Dodger personnel on board, or just how the team has patched through the injuries this year. But if true this is a good development and especially so if Al does not get replaced as he should.

As the deadline nears more young arm will be "made available' because this is the media's time to get clicks and any well run organization should have all assets available  at all times anyway for the right return.

I agree with Chas the very little will actually transpire for us this deadline but the change in philosophy could be a big step to finally getting it right which would be accelerated with a much better GM who knew this five years ago.

[RatkoVarda]

I could spend all day here

Edited July 27, 2022 by RatkoVarda

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If the trade is to help someone else's future, rather than their present, I would think it's going to be something like ... I don't know ... maybe Skubal for Kyle Lewis, straight up. Or maybe a contender with good starting pitching already might take Skubal today for a down-the-list numbered position player prospect who's on the brink, but who's either stalled or blocked.

I’m not sure where the idea came from that a team would pick up Skubal only to help their future.   Teams would pick him up certainly thinking that he could help them now.   The fact that he wouldn’t be a short term rental and is under team control at a nice price is something you don’t often see in deadline deals and would increase his value to someone.  

The Tigers aren’t going to trade him for a down the numbers prospect.   It’s not a fire sale.   Tarik is only leaving If they get something really good. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Hongbit

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I’m not sure where the idea came from that a team would pick up Skubal only to help their future.   Teams would pick him up certainly thinking that he could help them now.   The fact that he wouldn’t be a short term rental and is under team control at a nice price is something you don’t often see in deadline deals and would increase his value to someone.  

The Tigers aren’t going to trade him for a down the numbers prospect.   It’s not a fire sale.   Tarik is only leaving If they get something really good. 

It's definitely a case of tradeoffs as well... Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas may be better options, but they are also controllable for a much shorter period of time. 

Using the Cards again because they seem like a really good fit (at least to me), they could value Skubal's youth and controllability over a longer period of time, especially given the size of the market that they play in, the fact that their most useful starters (Wainwright, Mikolas) are guys who are closer to the end than the beginning, and just how they have generally operated in acquiring players over the years.