kdog Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Tenacious D said: Still a lot of time left, and teams always need more bullpen pieces. However, the closer we get to the deadline, the less leverage we have trying to get any value for Fulmer. We’re not privy, but you have to wonder if Avila gets too aggressive with his ask, that teams just look elsewhere. That is his reputation. They wait till the last minute and settle for scraps. We know Chris is a mark at this point. I would hope he has a friend who can tell him how underwater this organization is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, kdog said: That is his reputation. They wait till the last minute and settle for scraps. We know Chris is a mark at this point. I would hope he has a friend who can tell him how underwater this organization is. Maybe Yzerman will give Chris a pointer or two on tthe tigers out of sympathy. They’ve known each other a long time. Edited August 2, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) There always exists the possibility that they are working on a package and some of the pieces were contingent on other things happening.... (ie. Juan Soto deal, Ian Happ/Contreras deals, etc.) But it shouldn't surprise anybody at all that the Tigers, with one of the best bullpens in baseball, are left with all the pieces intact at the end of it. Which would reflect poorly on the General Manager. Edited August 2, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyrotigers Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 47 minutes ago, KL2 said: Not true at all. The odds are the same and what happen in previous or future years has no barring on the current playoffs. In baseball its 1 in 12 every year. And if you make it the next year its 1 in 12 again. it doesn't improve just because you made it multiple years. It's the same thinking that gets people to spend $100 on lotto tickets. If you have a 1/12 chance at hitting a home run, does that mean your odds of hitting one home run in a decade are the same if you have one or ten at bats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Avila surprisingly managed to trade away Grossman. Maybe he's just tired from that heavy lifting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Fun fact: Eric Hosmer's .272/.336/.391 would pretty much solidify him as the best bat in the 2022 Tiger lineup. Plus, he might have the glove required to tame Javy Baez's erratic hurls to 1B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 I think the Tigers paid down most of Grossman's salary to get that prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: ???? The probabilities across multiple years would sum by roughly a binomial dist. If you have a 1/12 chance of winning and go to the playoffs 10 times, your odds of winning at least one are ~60%. Binomial is probably not the best approx for that low a single event probability, but that should be in the ballpark. https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial Lee can probably generate a better approx. 8.3% is not such a low probability that you'll benefit much from doing something more complex than binomial. Anyway, it doesn't become 50% until you reach 8 seasons. So, if a team gets into the playoffs 7 times, odds are they will not win a championship. So, it's not surprising that there are teams that go to the playoffs over and over without winning it all. You do increase your chances though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMU97 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, kdog said: I think the Tigers paid down most of Grossman's salary to get that prospect. I would bet they paid all of except the pro-rated minimum for the rest of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, casimir said: Avila surprisingly managed to trade away Grossman. Maybe he's just tired from that heavy lifting? Al is relaxing after the blockbuster move with a gin and tonic. Edited August 2, 2022 by 1776 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, kdog said: I think the Tigers paid down most of Grossman's salary to get that prospect. I hadn't heard that, but it wouldn't surprise me. It was only $5M for the season, so, what, about 1/3 of that remaining? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Just now, 1776 said: Al is relaxing after the blockbuster move with a gin and tonic. Chris is messaging his feet all the while and thanking him for saving him some cash. It’s the Tiger way. If we're going this route, shouldn't it be "hot and ready" rather than "gin and tonic"? Do they still do the hot and readys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Hosmer traded to the Red Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Padres eating most of the salary. If it wasn't 1B, I'd take Hosmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 I can somewhat understand holding onto guys like Lange, Soto and Jimenez with the mindset that we may be able to get more in the offseason or even next deadline if they continue to pitch well but with Fulmer being a FA I'm stunned that he hasn't been dealt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Better to keep players and get nothing in return than have Al trade away players and get nothing in return. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, pyrotigers said: If you have a 1/12 chance at hitting a home run, does that mean your odds of hitting one home run in a decade are the same if you have one or ten at bats? They are the same whether you have one or 10 at bats. What happened in he previous at bat doesn't impact the current one. The odds don't change. It remains 1/12 whether you have one or a decade worth of at bats. It's why if you flip a coin 10 times it might land on heads 10 times. 50/50 odds don't mean it will land on heads exactly five times and tails exactly five times. Same concept here if you have a 1/12 shot to win the championship, and make the playoffs 12 straight years. The math doesn't say you are guaranteed to win one. Yours odds are 1 in 12 every year and what happened the previous years makes it no more or no less likely you will that given year. Especially in something with as many variables as a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, mtutiger said: There always exists the possibility that they are working on a package and some of the pieces were contingent on other things happening.... (ie. Juan Soto deal, Ian Happ/Contreras deals, etc.) But it shouldn't surprise anybody at all that the Tigers, with one of the best bullpens in baseball, are left with all the pieces intact at the end of it. Which would reflect poorly on the General Manager. Hmm, Toronto just aquired two RPs from the Marlins. Maybe more control of course for for those arms in terms of years. They gave up a top 100 (#82 JGroshans) who may be fairly close to MLB ready... In the end here, if AA cannot pry away an MLB/prospect ready type talent, it is more like Fulmer for a JD Davis type deal? Edited August 2, 2022 by alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: ???? The probabilities across multiple years would sum by roughly a binomial dist. If you have a 1/12 chance of winning and go to the playoffs 10 times, your odds of winning at least one are ~60%. Binomial is probably not the best approx for that low a single event probability, but that should be in the ballpark. https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial Lee can probably generate a better approx. The problem with using bionominal in this account is that it can be used in flipping a coin. Right. So you have either heads or tails and that's it. So you can calculate what the probability of getting multiple heads (but probability is not odds. The odds don't change its still 50/50). In baseball there are 1 of 2 outcomes win or lose. But, there are 12 teams, i.e. coins. It also doens't take into effect other things that can impact the outcome. In a coin flip the only thing that's gonna change it is a wind which is random. baseball is a game of skill and has many more random factors. Those change those 50/50 factors in different ways. Using bionominal does help calculate probability, but not the odds or chance you will win a championship by appearing in the playoffs more times. The previous year in a game of skill has no baring on the current. Maybe one of those other coins is heavily weighted to win. Maybe you keep getting brushed by the wind, i.e. a random bounce. Bionominal doesn't work in this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Surprised at how quiet Philly has been this deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 there's way too much math in this thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 I am glad KL is here to teach us how to do maths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, KL2 said: The problem with using bionominal in this account is that it can be used in flipping a coin. Right. So you have either heads or tails and that's it. So you can calculate what the probability of getting multiple heads (but probability is not odds. The odds don't change its still 50/50). In baseball there are 1 of 2 outcomes win or lose. But, there are 12 teams, i.e. coins. It also doens't take into effect other things that can impact the outcome. In a coin flip the only thing that's gonna change it is a wind which is random. baseball is a game of skill and has many more random factors. Those change those 50/50 factors in different ways. Using bionominal does help calculate probability, but not the odds or chance you will win a championship by appearing in the playoffs more times. The previous year in a game of skill has no baring on the current. Maybe one of those other coins is heavily weighted to win. Maybe you keep getting brushed by the wind, i.e. a random bounce. Bionominal doesn't work in this situation. If I watch ten Tigers games and you watch just one, who is more likely to see at least one Tigers victory? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyrotigers Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 The gambler's fallacy is the idea that if you lost in the past your odds improve. No one is suggesting that. It's just that ten longshots are better than two slightly lesser longshots I don't think you even need to get into math here. Most fans would rather compete every year than have one year with a higher chance of winning the series then turn to garbage The Tigers of course are mastering the garbage part without the good season aspect, which admittedly is even less ideal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, alex said: Hmm, Toronto just aquired two RPs from the Marlins. Maybe more control of course for for those arms in terms of years. They gave up a top 100 (#82 JGroshans) who may be fairly close to MLB ready... In the end here, if AA cannot pry away an MLB/prospect ready type talent, it is more like Fulmer for a JD Davis type deal? Why didn’t we better that offer. Top 100 guy. Plus Hosmer for free. Why not unless Hosmer no trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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