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2022 Trade Deadline


RatkoVarda

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14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I think over 10 games you are but each game individually is the same ? But I hate long division  

 

Yes, each game is the same, but that is not the point.  Getting back to championships, if the Tigers make the playoffs five years in a row (yeah, I know that's crazy!) they are more likely to win at least one championship than if they only make the playoffs once in five years.   

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4 minutes ago, KL2 said:

 

Don't we have enough low OPS guys already?

that was more of a general comment, not specific to Marsh.  Agree, he's a bad fit--K's over 30%, too.

Our issue is that we can't be sellers because our only tradable assets are relievers, which we're seeing over the last few days, are a commodity in the league.  We can't be buyers because we don't have the prospect capital that others teams do (which is criminal given where we've drafted the last few years).  Even if we wanted to flip our recent 1st rounders, how much value would Mize, Tork and Jobe have?

Edited by Tenacious D
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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Our issue is that we can't be sellers because our only tradable assets are relievers, which we're seeing over the last few days, are a commodity in the league.  We can't be buyers because we don't have the prospect capital that others teams do (which is criminal given where we've drafted the last few years).  Even if we wanted to flip our recent 1st rounders, how much value would Mize, Tork and Jobe have?

Agree with the general thrust of your comment, although I'm not entirely sure the reliever market is fully settled at this point either.

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11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, each game is the same, but that is not the point.  Getting back to championships, if the Tigers make the playoffs five years in a row (yeah, I know that's crazy!) they are more likely to win at least one championship than if they only make the playoffs once in five years.   

I've designed this handy imaginary diagram for two competing situations. In scenario one, the Tigers utterly sell out and boost their chances one season, but never again make the playoffs, in the other they make it every season but are not a favorite. 

Scenario one: 1/8+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0

Scenario two: 1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12+1/12

What I've decided is fractions suck and I'm a fool for not using decimals for this. Feel free to mock me, I deserve it. 

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2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

8.3% is not such a low probability that you'll benefit much from doing something more complex than binomial.  

Anyway, it doesn't become 50% until you reach 8 seasons.  So, if a team gets into the playoffs 7 times, odds are they will not win a championship.  So, it's not surprising that there are teams that go to the playoffs over and over without winning it all.  You do increase your chances though.  

That’s why I don’t think the Tigers were playoff underachievers. 5 appearances between 2006-2014 yielded 4 trips to the ALCS and 2 pennants. That’s probably more than we could have expected, especially without home field advantage any of those years and only in 2006 did they have close to the best record in baseball. 

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5 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

That’s why I don’t think the Tigers were playoff underachievers. 5 appearances between 2006-2014 yielded 4 trips to the ALCS and 2 pennants. That’s probably more than we could have expected, especially without home field advantage any of those years and only in 2006 did they have close to the best record in baseball. 

if anything, they were regular seasoj underachievers.

2013 was the biggest disappointment.

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44 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, each game is the same, but that is not the point.  Getting back to championships, if the Tigers make the playoffs five years in a row (yeah, I know that's crazy!) they are more likely to win at least one championship than if they only make the playoffs once in five years.   

I agree with this. make sense to me...oh..oh..maybe not then..🙂

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4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

How we doing?  Avila working on his, “we made a lot of calls, but couldn’t find a fit that we thought was going to make us a better team” talking points?

Still think there's a chance, particularly with the Mets not having acquired any relief yet.

If they don't make any moves on Fulmer or Chafin, that's another failure to add to the ledger for Avila.

Edited by mtutiger
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