2022 Trade Deadline

[RandyMarsh]

4 hours ago, Scottwood said:

I think the game has passed by Avila and he hasn't caught up and he needs to be fired. Even just the entire stated strategy of first getting the pitching right and devoting tons of resources the first few drafts of Avila's tenure to pitching and then adding position players later makes no sense. Pitchers break and are unreliable. I do think the current front office would probably not have drafted Mize or Manning or Faedo as they are going after pitchers now with better raw stuff to build off of. Seeing that the past two drafts has been a positive if nothing else. But it is too little too late now.

I also think Illitch has been a really bad owner and the thing where the Tigers would add a few things to modernize the org each offseason (this year was new heads of player development, in 2021 they added new additional coaches to the minor leagues, in other years they added more technology, etc.) is probably more an Illitch thing rather than Avila. I'm guessing Avila or any baseball exec would have wanted a total overhaul 5 or 6 years ago as opposed to a little here and there since it still leaves you behind other organizations. In a recent podcast, Cody Stavenhagen from The Athletic mentioned that the Tigers have now realized that they are behind other orgs in injury prevention. So, they will probably add to their biomechanics department this coming off season now.  But, it is just more of the same. They constantly play catch up.

I think maybe every MLB org has their own facility in the Dominican Republic now, or at least are in the process of building their own. So, I'd guess the Tigers will eventually do that too and announce that one off season. Then, once they do that, they'll have to add actual resources there and try to catch up there. The Dodgers and other organizations have an entire research department in addition to an analytics department. So, the Tigers will probably add a small version of that a different offseason. But, I'd guess that is more of an Illitch thing than Avila. Either way, the Tigers are arguably the worst organization in MLB all things considered and requires a change in how ownership invests in the organization and in the way it is actually run from the GM and other baseball front office execs.

I agree with all of this but just a minor quibble and that's that I think just about anybody wouldve taken Mize with the first pick, atleast if you were to believe the national pundits. Even Law who is about as anti pitcher as you could get said he'd be the slam dunk choice at 1 if he were picking there. But yeah otherwise I agree 100%.

[alex]

13 hours ago, Longgone said:

It doesn't really matter if the GM has any ability to judge talent, it's all scout driven. You don't even need to be a good negotiator, the staff will value each player. A GM's primary job is to make sure the organization has all the resources to be successful, including hiring qualified people for each role. Has he done that? I dont know, he's definitely added resources, and he's added staff who are well regarded, but so far, the results just aren't there, that's all you really know.

IMHO, I disagree about the trade aspect and negotiating. Yes, the scouting group can can suggest so and so in a trade - but AA has to be able to negotiate the trade for who is suggested. He has to be able to say if not A for B well, then who might you want to see in addition? You go from there.

Example: If someone wanted at this past 2022 deadline MFulmer or another RP or Fulmer and another RP and say it was the LAD, we say of we want OF APages (or whomever from whatever team). Then what player(s) from our farm system might you (LAD) like to add to balance this out and A, B and C are off limits (whomever the Tigs deem NOT to trade).

I just think AA way overvalues his own prospects and just not enough 'tactful' negotiating with another GM is done to get the guy we want (ex suggested by scouts). ALL players are available. We are NOT developing many position players at all. If there is a guy out there, and I am not saying another orgs no. 1-2 prospect pers say, and we think he could help, that player has a value - but so does the RPs that team seeks (from the Tigs) and another 1-2 prospects of their choosing that we could add.

Again, I 'do' think AA has value to be part of the organization - I just have not seen the ability to get young MLB ready prospects from another team that we may want to add to help form our nucleus.

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I agree with all of this but just a minor quibble and that's that I think just about anybody wouldve taken Mize with the first pick, atleast if you were to believe the national pundits. Even Law who is about as anti pitcher as you could get said he'd be the slam dunk choice at 1 if he were picking there. But yeah otherwise I agree 100%.

Same with Tork. He was the consensus 1/1 so it’s hard to fault any team in that position for taking him there.

So if the problem is not that they took the wrong guys 1/1, then that kind of narrows down where the real problem lies, doesn’t it?

[Longgone]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Same with Tork. He was the consensus 1/1 so it’s hard to fault any team in that position for taking him there.

So if the problem is not that they took the wrong guys 1/1, then that kind of narrows down where the real problem lies, doesn’t it?

Anyone who's writing off either one of them is way premature.

[pyrotigers]

12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Yeah, the Grossman trade is more like a B for me.

D sounds about right for the Fulmer trade and the general strategy employed my the GM

He's a free agent anyway, the only gain is that Chris saved some money. As a fan, I view this as a negative 

I was honestly surprised he didn't give us an F

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

He's a free agent anyway, the only gain is that Chris saved some money. As a fan, I view this as a negative 

If you're discussing Grossman in particular, I don't believe that keeping Grossman would have been a positive under any circumstances... I would rather see younger players playing, even if the results ultimately don't show up for them.

On Fulmer, hard to disagree.

[mtutiger]

31 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Anyone who's writing off either one of them is way premature.

Want to preface by saying that the reliance on advanced analytics in today's game is by far superior to the older, more traditional ways of looking at the game.

But with Tork in particular, you sort of see the downside: he struggled in the major leagues and, according to AJ Hinch, was sent down with an order to work on his mechanics. Thinking logically, one would think that if a player is being sent down to work on mechanics, you may not see results in the first 30 or so ABs. It may take as many as 100-200 ABs. But nonetheless, that doesn't stop some from taking a look at the stat sheet of those 30 or so ABs and drawing hard conclusions off of them...

There's a sort of rigidity in that way of thinking that isn't all that different from the traditionalist hater class IMO. Context does matter, players can be working to change and can improve their skillset. I'm not even guaranteeing it will work or that he might not bust out in the end, but with Tork, I wish we would have a little bit more grace and understand that it may take a little more time than we would like. He's a 22 year old kid who was probably brought up before he should have been, let's give him a chance to get back on track.

Edited August 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

There were no expectations to trade off Grossman, but then, I don’t credit Avila with this anyway since he went on record that he was sitting back and waiting for calls, not going out to make anything happen. The Phillies needs right-handed platoon hitting—ironically because Castellanos has sucked so bad this year—and Grossman has delivered on that all season.

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Want to preface by saying that the reliance on advanced analytics in today's game is by far superior to the older, more traditional ways of looking at the game.

But with Tork in particular, you sort of see the downside: he struggled in the major leagues and, according to AJ Hinch, was sent down with an order to work on his mechanics. Thinking logically, one would think that if a player is being sent down to work on mechanics, you may not see results in the first 30 or so ABs. It may take as many as 100-200 ABs. But nonetheless, that doesn't stop some from taking a look at the stat sheet of those 30 or so ABs and drawing hard conclusions off of them...

There's a sort of rigidity in that way of thinking that isn't all that different from the traditionalist hater class IMO. Context does matter, players can be working to change and can improve their skillset. I'm not even guaranteeing it will work or that he might not bust out in the end, but with Tork, I wish we would have a little bit more grace and understand that it may take a little more time than we would like. He's a 22 year old kid who was probably brought up before he should have been, let's give him a chance to get back on track.

But again, they should have made the move weeks ago. It negates part of the value of every decision that is correct when it takes so long to finally get to it. 

[mtutiger]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

But again, they should have made the move weeks ago. It negates part of the value of every decision that is correct when it takes so long to finally get to it. 

Whether the Tigers waited too long to send Tork down or not is kinda beside the point.... the fact is that he was sent down with the instruction to work on his mechanics, and that if he is following through on that order, it might take time to see results. We, as fans of this team, hapless as they are, should recognize that and show a little patience and not jump to conclusions after 30 ABs.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

We, as fans of this team, hapless as they are, should recognize that and show a little patience and not jump to conclusions after 30 ABs.

OTOH - we as fans jumping to conclusions has no effect on whether the Tigers become a good baseball team, the Tiger org's inability to take obvious actions in a timely manner does.

[Tiger337]

57 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Anyone who's writing off either one of them is way premature.

Fans pump up prospects too much and are then are too fast to write them off.  

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

OTOH - we as fans jumping to conclusions has no effect on whether the Tigers become a good baseball team, the Tiger org's inability to take obvious actions in a timely manner does.

No argument there.

But again, my comment is more about Tork than the Tigers organization.... it doesn't matter who the player is or what organization a player is a part of, if they are sent down to the minors specifically to work on mechanics, it is a reasonable expectation that it may take more than six games worth of ABs before you see progress.

Tork is largely not being given that benefit of the doubt. Reasonable people can disagree, but I think it's kind of unfair to him and that he has time to course correct and become a good ballplayer.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Longgone said:

Well, he did need to be traded, cuz something is better than nothing.

Maybe. I'm actually not at all persuaded that Gipson will net out to be worth any more to the Tigers than the innings Fulmer would have giving them for the next two months. That is unless the Tigers have decided to tank the rest of way.

Edited August 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Maybe. I'm actually not at all persuaded that Gipson will net out to be worth any more to the Tigers than the innings Fulmer would have giving them for the next two months. That is unless the Tigers have decided to tank the rest of way.

It saves Ilitch some money.

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It saves Ilitch some money.

There is always that.

[mtutiger]

45 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Maybe. I'm actually not at all persuaded that Gipson will net out to be worth any more to the Tigers than the innings Fulmer would have giving them for the next two months. That is unless the Tigers have decided to tank the rest of way.

The fanbase probably would have raked Avila over the coals for doing nothing as well, but with this kinda return on Fulmer, you wonder if the raking would have been less harsh tbh.

[Longgone]

47 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Maybe. I'm actually not at all persuaded that Gipson will net out to be worth any more to the Tigers than the innings Fulmer would have giving them for the next two months. That is unless the Tigers have decided to tank the rest of way.

You still have hope for this year? They can always resign him.

[Jim Cowan]

I'm certainly happy that Grossman got all that playing time to bump up his trade value, that was smart field management.

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The fanbase probably would have raked Avila over the coals for doing nothing as well, but with this kinda return on Fulmer, you wonder if the raking would have been less harsh tbh.

It goes to the idea that you are wasting your time working on moving non-all-star guys without at least a year of control left if you want to get something useful back. Teams wont give you anything valuable for a rental who doesn't project to generate some measurable WAR over the remaining 2 months/playoffs. Fulmer is not in that category. With a Fulmer, either move him last year, sign him yourself, or you'll pretty much end up letting him go for nothing. It's just bad roster management to take a guy like Fulmer to the deadline in his FA year if you aren't going to sign him yourself. 

Our front office talks a lot about long term sustainability, but that takes strategic planning and the kind of discipline teams like Milwaukee and St. Louis are more known for that says you have to be willing to plow some resources under to keep seeding the field. You have to understand that you can't always put the 'best' team on the field that you could have in a given year if you want to reach a the state where you are team that rebuilds in place. You can't hold a Fulmer on the chance you might be good this year and want him and still get value out of him. That's how you drain your roster value.

Edited August 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gkelly]

On 8/4/2022 at 8:36 AM, chasfh said:

Same with Tork. He was the consensus 1/1 so it’s hard to fault any team in that position for taking him there.

There are always arguments for and against anyone in the draft. 

Mize didn't exactly have the eye popping velocity that other pitchers do but was seen as being more MLB ready than others.  There were some alternate options such as Bohm, India, or Bart.  With the way the game is transitioning to starters basically being 5 or sometimes 6 inning pitchers, it might make more sense to go with the bat potential.  

The main argument against Torkelson is he is a 1st baseman.  Everyone it seems (well except Detroit) has a decent hitting first baseman.  Among starting first basemen, only Eric Hosmer was drafted really high in the draft (3rd).  Naylor and Cron were the other guys drafted in the first 30 pics (both in the mid-teens).  It's a bad return on investment to pick a 1st baseman that high when you can find talent later in the draft or sign international players; plus they can't transition to another position because they aren't athletic enough.  I think Tork has a long road to travel, and hopefully he keeps a good attitude and work ethic.  I think the Tigers should consider letting him work through his issues in the minors next season for as long as it takes.  The guy is only 22, so even a full year working on stuff in the minors might even be in his best interests.  I know fans want him up in the majors, but the Tigers aren't going to be contenders for a few years minimum anyway, and it's more important to get your top prospect the confidence and develop sound mechanics for the future.

I'm not saying either one of them were bad choices or not the consensus pick, but there were other options.  

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, gkelly said:

The main argument against Torkelson is he is a 1st baseman.

And they probably pulled the plug on his work at 3b too soon. And why? Because they thought Candelario was the answer at 3rd. Again, bad FO work. You leave him at his highest value position in the minors until the very last day when you call him up and *have* to move him, because you never know what is going to happen. Banking on Candelario at 3rd looks pretty stupid today.

[chasfh]

Mize was the consensus 1/1 because he had a splitter that wiped out college hitters. There are multiple things to unpack in that sentence, but point is, while there were technically hundreds of other choices available in the draft, everyone, even Fangraphs, thought Casey was the guy that year.

As for TORK!, if I recall correctly, he had never played 3B before the Tigers decided they were going to give him reps there. The way I remember it, he turned out to be not very good at this thing he'd never done before, and when Jeimer came back strong in 2021 after a decent but injury-shortened 2020, it was a reasonable assumption he'd locked up third base.

Edited August 5, 2022 by chasfh

[RandyMarsh]

Aside from the splitter Mize was also thought to have a plus FB as well due to the movement and command. Here's a snippet I found pre draft from bless you boys about the FB with quotes from Law and Sickels.

"Mize’s fastball is no slouch, though. According to Sickels, Mize has sat between 93-95 miles per hour with the fastball this season, topping out at 96 mph. “The pitch has above-average movement yet he commands it well, which is almost unfair...” added Sickels. MLB Pipeline also graded it as a plus offering, in part thanks to “exceptional” command of the pitch. Law echoed these sentiments, giving Mize’s fastball a plus grade. Mize pounds the lower half of the strike zone with the fastball, leading to plenty of ground balls. Said Law, “Between the fastball and splitter [Mize] could probably go entire games without giving up a fly ball on nights in which he has better command.”

[Dan Gilmore]

Right. His ceiling was sometimes said as Greg Maddox, because of his control. Hasn’t turned out that way so far, but the splitter was not all he had going for him.