2022 MLB Draft

[TigerNation]

42 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think the argument over command vs power arms just comes down the the irreducible fact that everything you do as pitcher is magnified in the problems it presents to the hitter if you do it at higher velo. Guys who are successful in the majors without a 90+ mph FB have to have really extraordinary added value in their stuff to make up for the time they are giving the batter to see the ball. So the trade off is that if I look at a guy without a power arm, he *might* be the next Greg Maddox, but the odds of that are so low I'm going to take the hard thrower because the odds he develops control (which are low) are still no worse than that the soft tosser turns out to be the next Greg Maddox because those odds are also really low.

Honestly, is anybody even successful without at least a 93+ MPH fastball anymore? Off the top of my head I can't think of anybody.

[Dan Gilmore]

I think there are corresponding thought processes regarding hitting. Basically whether you favor a guy with high level contact/ good OBP or prefer the guy with power/ lessor OBP. Compounded by looking at body type and attempting to project a young frame a few years down the road. 

i would be interested in Micro’s take on that regarding the Tigers system, and possible comparison to other orgs.

I realize one of the current offensive failures is lack of power, but am more thinking longer periods trends.

G2 has commented on how difficult it is to project the ceiling for hitters-do the drop out at levels in the minors as the pitching gets better? Or look good until they make the bigs. 

Thoughts?

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Basically whether you favor a guy with high level contact/ good OBP or prefer the guy with power/ lessor OBP. Compounded by looking at body type and attempting to project a young frame a few years down the road. 

of course in Detroit we had two great examples of guys who were hit first, see if the power comes later, in Whittaker and Trammell. Both eventually developed fair power, but even then not the kind of power you are hoping for in a 1B/OF targeted player.

[RandyMarsh]

18 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Every single fanbase overrates their prospects.  

This is true but with my experience from seeing fans in other message boards or social media nobody is more guilty of this than Yankees fans. 

I remember in the late 00s before I came here I was still a poster on the ESPN MLB boards and you'd often get laughable takes but none as bad as the Yankees fans on there. Chamberlain,Ian  Kennedy and Phil Hughes we're basically already crowned the next Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz accept with "better stuff". 

Jesus Montero was "Albert Pujols with the bat but the ability to play catcher, at worst he will be Miguel Cabrera like,". I put that in quotes cause that was a paraphrased quote by one of the more active Yankees posters at the time who claimed to be a scout as well. I still remember it cause I remember the huge debates it sparked from non Yankees fans like myself.  Granted this was around 08 or 09 before Miggy really hit his stride so the at worst comment about him isn't quite as bad as if it was said a few years later but still completely laughable.

Austin Jackson was another one, there were legit posters saying he was going to be the next great Yankees CFer and will be a Bernie Williams at worst. 

These are just some recounts that I remember from Yankees fans, yeah like you said all fans do it but usually when the fans that do you will atleast get more rational fans to correct them or put out a precautions, I never got that with Yankees fans. If one said it they all went with it. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[BBFCFM]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

This is true but with my experience from seeing fans in other message boards or social media nobody is more guilty of this than Yankees fans. 

I remember in the late 00s before I came here I was still a poster on the ESPN MLB boards and you'd often get laughable takes but none as bad as the Yankees fans on there. Chamberlain,Ian  Kennedy and Phil Hughes we're basically already crowned the next Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz accept with "better stuff". 

Jesus Montero was "Albert Pujols with the bat but the ability to play catcher, at worst he will be Miguel Cabrera like,". I put that in quotes cause that was a paraphrased quote by one of the more active Yankees posters at the time who claimed to be a scout as well. Granted this was around 08 or 09 before Miggy really hit his stride so the at worst comment about him isn't quite as bad as if it was said a few years later but still completely laughable.

Austin Jackson was another one, there were legit posters saying he was going to be the next great Yankees CFer and will be a Bernie Williams at worst. 

These are just some recounts that I remember from Yankees fans, yeah like you said all fans do it but usually when the fans that do you will atleast get more rational fans to correct them or put out a precautions, I never got that with Yankees fans. If one said it they all went with it. 

😂😂😂

[Tiger337]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

of course in Detroit we had two great examples of guys who were hit first, see if the power comes later, in Whittaker and Trammell. Both eventually developed fair power, but even then not the kind of power you are hoping for in a 1B/OF targeted player.

Back then nobody cared whether a middle infielder hit for power.  If they could catch and throw and not be a black hole, then they were good.  

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Austin Jackson

Point take that it's easy to get over excited about prospects, but in Jackson's case he's almost the counterpoint. He was the real deal as a minor leaguer. Austin had 19 WAR in his 1st four  pro seasons across more than 550 games. He WAS a really good pro ballplayer on a solid career trajectory, but for whatever reason his body gave out on him - not even so much a single big injury, but a number of things built up starting with hamstring injuries when he was still in Det. Most guys are over hyped for sure. But there are also a fair number of guys who deserved the hype but ended up with their careers derailed by acute or chronic injuries who could have been great players if they had stayed healthy. You can't really knock the people that scouted them for not knowing that would happen. I think about Madrigal. Kid was off to a great start but it's not clear he will be the same player after that injury.

FTM, if Casey Mize does not come back from TJ he'd be the same kind of argument. You could say the pick turned out to be bust and be correct at one level, but doesn't mean the excitement him about him wasn't also justified. He will still almost certainly be a good pro if his arm cooperates.

Edited June 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

Jackson was indeed a good player for four years, but when a lot of your game depends on speed, it doesn't taken much to derail your career.  

[buddha]

20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Point take that it's easy to get over excited about prospects, but in Jackson's case he's almost the counterpoint. He was the real deal as a minor leaguer. Austin had 19 WAR in his 1st four  pro seasons across more than 550 games. He WAS a really good pro ballplayer on a solid career trajectory, but for whatever reason his body gave out on him - not even so much a single big injury, but a number of things built up starting with hamstring injuries when he was still in Det. Most guys are over hyped for sure. But there are also a fair number of guys who deserved the hype but ended up with their careers derailed by acute or chronic injuries who could have been great players if they had stayed healthy. You can't really knock the people that scouted them for not knowing that would happen. I think about Madrigal. Kid was off to a great start but it's not clear he will be the same player after that injury.

FTM, if Casey Mize does not come back from TJ he'd be the same kind of argument. You could say the pick turned out to be bust and be correct at one level, but doesn't mean the excitement him about him wasn't also justified. He will still almost certainly be a good pro if his arm cooperates.

multiple injuries now for madrigal.

[RandyMarsh]

Quote

12. Detroit Tigers: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High (Wexford, Pa.)

I’ve also heard the Tigers with Crawford, and we know they’re not afraid to take a high school pitcher, which puts them in the mix for Porter and Robbie Snelling, who has risen as much as any prep arm this spring. There was talk of Young getting into the top 10, but I think some teams up there are shying away because he’ll be 19 at the draft and didn’t face great competition this spring.

Scouting report: Young has surged up draft boards with a strong showing this spring in the Pittsburgh suburbs. Last summer he would often overstride, and since he nearly bars his lead arm, he was left off-balance enough that he couldn’t adjust to stuff spinning away from him, although he’s quieted all of that down somewhat this spring and scouts have reported seeing better quality contact from him. He’s at least a 55 runner who has the speed and arm to stay at shortstop, although he’ll need some adjustment with his footwork to remain there in the majors. The Duke commit will turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, which will hurt him with certain teams that weigh age more heavily, while teams that focus more on tools and athleticism are likely to push him into the first 15 picks.

https://theathletic.com/3374301/2022/06/21/mlb-mock-draft-druw-jones/

Link to Law's latest mock. Has us taking a SS out of a Pittsburgh area HS. 

[RatkoVarda]

would much prefer any of the college bats he has going in the preceding 5 picks

[Tenacious D]

Remember that Law hates us.  I’d be shocked if we made that pick.

[RandyMarsh]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-22-2022?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

MLB's latest mock just came out and it has us taking Jace Jung. He speculates that atleast 1 of the second tier college bats will be there for us which includes Jung. Also put out the caveat that "Homestate product Porter could be difficult to resist, however, as could Prielipp."

[Tenacious D]

I don’t care who we draft really.  Everything sucks (Tigers-related—no reason to check in on me).

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-22-2022?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

MLB's latest mock just came out and it has us taking Jace Jung. He speculates that atleast 1 of the second tier college bats will be there for us which includes Jung. Also put out the caveat that "Homestate product Porter could be difficult to resist, however, as could Prielipp."

I'd personally be happy with Jung or Crawford if we go down the HS bat route. 

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I'd personally be happy with Jung or Crawford if we go down the HS bat route. 

Would be nice to draft a hitter that doesn’t have “swing and miss” issues.  How about someone who walks as much as they K (or close)?

[LongLiveMaroth]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Would be nice to draft a hitter that doesn’t have “swing and miss” issues.  How about someone who walks as much as they K (or close)?

Agreed, Jung had more walks than K's in his this season and last so he would fit that mold. 

[RandyMarsh]

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN now has us taking Connor Priellp(sp?) Lhp from University of Alabama. Kiley notes that from everything he has heard we are essentially exclusively looking at college players for our first pick.

[LongLiveMaroth]

58 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN now has us taking Connor Priellp(sp?) Lhp from University of Alabama. Kiley notes that from everything he has heard we are essentially exclusively looking at college players for our first pick.

Well here's hoping one of the better college bats fall to us then.

[RandyMarsh]

With the draft just 2 weeks away from Sunday here is Jon Mayo's latest mock. He has us doing the nightmare scenario of  taking another HS pitcher in Brock Porter from nearby Orchard Lake St. Mary's. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

With the draft just 2 weeks away from Sunday here is Jon Mayo's latest mock. He has us doing the nightmare scenario of  taking another HS pitcher in Brock Porter from nearby Orchard Lake St. Mary's. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Honestly surprised that he has the Tigers picking Porter over Jace Jung in this scenario.... there has been a lot of speculation that the Tigers are high on Jung, plus he's a college bat.

[LongLiveMaroth]

Just now, RandyMarsh said:

With the draft just 2 weeks away from Sunday here is Jon Mayo's latest mock. He has us doing the nightmare scenario of  taking another HS pitcher in Brock Porter from nearby Orchard Lake St. Mary's. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Yeah, that's going to be a no from me. That being said if they did draft him I wouldn't riot as he is a solid prospect but I would just prefer a college bat like Jace Jung or Jacob Berry if fell to us. I just wouldn't love that risk with us not having a 3rd and no longer having the comp pick as well. Last year when Jobe was drafted I wasn't exactly thrilled but I think getting Madden and Pachenco helped lessen that feeling. 

[Tenacious D]

9 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

With the draft just 2 weeks away from Sunday here is Jon Mayo's latest mock. He has us doing the nightmare scenario of  taking another HS pitcher in Brock Porter from nearby Orchard Lake St. Mary's. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Could just be lazy reporting/speculating based on track record.  Let’s hope.

[RandyMarsh]

Just now, Tenacious D said:

Could just be lazy reporting/speculating based on track record.  Let’s hope.

Yeah that's what I'm guessing, he didn't say it but other mocks speculated we may also be interested cause he is a "local kid". That is about the dumbest reason to draft somebody that there is particularly with baseball when the fanbase as zero knowledge of the player anyway. In other sports you atleast have the benefit that the local kid may help drive ticket sales or jersey sales but that isn't the case with baseball. 

[Tenacious D]

I’ll be bummed if they pass on a bat like Jung.  His profile is much needed in our org.