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2024 Presidential Election thread


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16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The public is stuck in a sense when something big hits like COVID. Some kind of bailout plan was good idea - you write the best bill you can get through knowing before hand it will be abused but that is the price you pay for any kind of action. You can always look back in 20/20 and see what kind of clawbacks you should have included for the abusers, but the truth is the best you can do is try to remember the history for next time. 

How government deals with big business is really the political question of the age, from social media cos to dereg to Citizen's United to 'Industrial Policy'. The 180 deg political split between the parties today insures little to no progress is made. In my personal view that is because now that we have let the business camel's nose into the tent, their ability to spread political money acts to prevent any kind of needed system correction. It's one of those structural things that flies below the radar of the MS media fascination with personalities and the immediate threat of large swath of the public's growing sympathy with fascism and even War in Europe, but it's an important threat to the body politic none-the-less.

The only semi-argument you'll get out of me based on your response is in regards to the 180 degree political split.  Publicly, yes, I agree it appears to be.  Privately, unfortunately I feel there is not much of a split at all and it's pointed in a direction that doesn't benefit the average citizen.

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25 minutes ago, ben9753 said:

Builds a strawman. When called out on it, says yeah, maybe this is a strawman, but who knows what else there is that’s real??

Or, I am freely admitting that he may have no role in this recent debacle and that blame could be solely on Southwest software combined with both of their major hubs having weather related issues, but pointing out that some past issues might get scrutinized more.

Note, Tom Price resigned from his cabinet position over private flights and he didn't take that many more than Buttigieg has.  That was not a big story against Buttigieg when it broke.  Could something like that change though?  

 

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Interesting new poll from The Bullwerk. It's behind their paywall. Basically shows Trump with approximately 30% of the vote among Republicans for the nomination. He still retains about 70% of serious Trumpers. (I realize serious Trumpers is a bit of an oxymoron) and loses in a head to head race with DeSantis 52-30. About 10% want somebody else.

Basically Trump should hope for a crowded field like 2016 so others can split the vote. Especially since I think most state nominating races are winner take all.

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1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

Interesting new poll from The Bullwerk. It's behind their paywall. Basically shows Trump with approximately 30% of the vote among Republicans for the nomination. He still retains about 70% of serious Trumpers. (I realize serious Trumpers is a bit of an oxymoron) and loses in a head to head race with DeSantis 52-30. About 10% want somebody else.

Basically Trump should hope for a crowded field like 2016 so others can split the vote. Especially since I think most state nominating races are winner take all.

I have stated that I think Trump can't win the GOP nomination.  That said, The Bullwark started out by a small group of Never Trumpers and built their base largely on folks like me (conservative Never Trumpers). I would fully expect a result like that from them.

I certainly hope it represents the whole of the GOP now though.

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3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 

I certainly hope it represents the whole of the GOP now though.

The GOP a seems to wanting to walk a fine line between not wanting Trump and not wanting to piss off the 30%  of the party that constitute his base. (How many members of the party in Congress still will not show contrition or backtrack on their vote Jan 6, 2021.)

A lot of it depends on how many folks actually run for the nomination. If you look at a field that includes Trump, Desantis, along with Haley and Pence who are certainly sounding like candidates. Not to mention one or two others who seem to be pondering a run...

Trump wins the nomination in a walk...

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3 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

Interesting new poll from The Bullwerk. It's behind their paywall. Basically shows Trump with approximately 30% of the vote among Republicans for the nomination. He still retains about 70% of serious Trumpers. (I realize serious Trumpers is a bit of an oxymoron) and loses in a head to head race with DeSantis 52-30. About 10% want somebody else.

Basically Trump should hope for a crowded field like 2016 so others can split the vote. Especially since I think most state nominating races are winner take all.

To be fair, there's a real disparity in some of the polling right now.... I've seen a couple of polls recently showing around a 52-30 spread in favor of Trump as well.

I tend to think people are underestimating Trump's residual strength within the base of the party. I still think he's the favorite.

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1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

That said, The Bullwark started out by a small group of Never Trumpers and built their base largely on folks like me (conservative Never Trumpers). I would fully expect a result like that from them.

The Bulwark aren't exactly in love with Ron DeSantis, but nonetheless it does fit a pattern of polling whereby partisan R pollsters who have an interest in seeing Trump go down tend to show Ron DeSantis doing better than public polling does.

The bigger concern off The Bulwark poll for DeSantis is what percentage of the Trumpy crowd is ride-or-die for Trump, they speculate as high as 28-30%.... sure, some of those people may come around in the end, but even something as small as 5% of Trump's base of support sitting at home as opposed to voting for DeSantis could really hurt his chances.

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37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The Bulwark aren't exactly in love with Ron DeSantis, but nonetheless it does fit a pattern of polling whereby partisan R pollsters who have an interest in seeing Trump go down tend to show Ron DeSantis doing better than public polling does.

The bigger concern off The Bulwark poll for DeSantis is what percentage of the Trumpy crowd is ride-or-die for Trump, they speculate as high as 28-30%.... sure, some of those people may come around in the end, but even something as small as 5% of Trump's base of support sitting at home as opposed to voting for DeSantis could really hurt his chances.

Not just a concern for DeSantis, but for the whole party.  IMO, not much they can do but deal with it and take their licks because it was their ineptitude which allowed the party to get to this point.

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32 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The Bulwark aren't exactly in love with Ron DeSantis, but nonetheless it does fit a pattern of polling whereby partisan R pollsters who have an interest in seeing Trump go down tend to show Ron DeSantis doing better than public polling does.

The bigger concern off The Bulwark poll for DeSantis is what percentage of the Trumpy crowd is ride-or-die for Trump, they speculate as high as 28-30%.... sure, some of those people may come around in the end, but even something as small as 5% of Trump's base of support sitting at home as opposed to voting for DeSantis could really hurt his chances.

There's the potential rub for the Republican Party. 1) If Trump does not get the nomination and the 5% or so stay home that would cut into the historically slim margins the parties hold in key states (See Hilary in 2016 over the email leaks...her losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania could probably attributed to those stories) 2)Trump runs as a third party. See Ross Perot or Ralph Nader.

In 1968 I think both parties saw Wallace as a game changer. Other circumstances played into the equation as well like the War in Viet Nam and the Chicago Convention riots.

 

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Not just a concern for DeSantis, but for the whole party.  IMO, not much they can do but deal with it and take their licks because it was their ineptitude which allowed the party to get to this point.

Which is what happens when you pander to the lowest common denominator  

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5 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

There's the potential rub for the Republican Party. 1) If Trump does not get the nomination and the 5% or so stay home that would cut into the historically slim margins the parties hold in key states (See Hilary in 2016 over the email leaks...her losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania could probably attributed to those stories) 2)Trump runs as a third party. See Ross Perot or Ralph Nader.

In 1968 I think both parties saw Wallace as a game changer. Other circumstances played into the equation as well like the War in Viet Nam and the Chicago Convention riots.

 

I think there is good chance Trump would run as a third party candidate.  I am pretty sure he doesn't give a crap about the Republican party and is only using it to his personal advantage.  He would have no problem messing them up.  At this point though, I am still thinking he'll get the nomination.   

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24 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think there is good chance Trump would run as a third party candidate.  I am pretty sure he doesn't give a crap about the Republican party and is only using it to his personal advantage.  He would have no problem messing them up.  At this point though, I am still thinking he'll get the nomination.   

If he doesn't get the nomination running as an independent is all upside. I'm sure he believes the GOP can't win without him, so that means another Democratic DOJ pursuing him, running and winning is still his best chance to put an end to that. Plus running allows him to keep on living for months on the proceeds of political fundraising and that's a valuable ticket for him.

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

If he doesn't get the nomination running as an independent is all upside. I'm sure he believes the GOP can't win without him, so that means another Democratic DOJ pursuing him, running and winning is still his best chance to put an end to that. Plus running allows him to keep on living for months on the proceeds of political fundraising and that's a valuable ticket for him.

That kind of thing was probably his intention in 2016.  

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