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2024 Presidential Election thread


pfife

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11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

What makes Trump appealing to fiscal conservatives?  He hasn't been fiscally conservative his whole life.  He has always been in massive debt (the king of debt) and then he added hugely to the national debt as President.  He also imposed big tariffs and then bailed out corporate farmers when the tariffs failed.   

"Fiscal Conservative" is the cover label these interests use, but its really corporate money fueling them, so it's not any kind of Burkean philosophy behind it but just pure profit  - taxes and deregulaiton. Trump gets a A on both those and esp the corporate tax rate cut.  All other doubts about him end there for your fiscal conservative/corporate sector interests.

Edited by gehringer_2
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3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

"Fiscal Conservative" is the cover label these interests use, but its really corporate money fueling them, so it's not any kind of Burkean philosophy behind it but just pure profit  - taxes and deregulaiton. Trump gets a A on both those and esp the corporate tax rate cut.  All other doubts about him end there for your fiscal conservative/corporate sector interests.

But isn't that what all Republican Presidents are paid to do? It was easier for Trump to do because he had a 100% Republican Congress.  

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The money that fuels the GOP comes from four distinct source: 

  • Rich business guys who want lower taxes and less regulation.  Could care less about culture war but they don't poll well with this stuff except for among their own class and those aspiring to be in that class.  Paul Ryan is their hero.  They think Captain Hazelwood got a bad rap. 
  • Social conservative rich guys who live to play with model trains and plan the biological functions of young women.  They live to create a world in which women have to wear dresses and explain their menstruations to male authority figures.  Mercer family is their hero. 
  • Small dollar donors who want to create hell for the libs.  They love WWE and the storylines. Trump is their boy. 
  • Small dollar donors who create cover for Russian funding for the NRA and associated pro-firearms groups.  They love anyone who shoots a person of color.  They support the TN GOP. 

Maybe there are others.  These seem to be the most prevelent.  

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2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

But isn't that what all Republican Presidents are paid to do? It was easier for Trump to do because he had a 100% Republican Congress.  

Right, which is the answer to your question. Trump was there for them on taxes and dereg, so that cemented his 'appeal' in American boardrooms. I guess what I'm saying is that there are true fiscal conservatives out there, and the corporate interests love to mimic their rhetoric about the virtue balanced budgets and Yankee thrift, but in the end the corporate money doesn't care about those things and the those conservative philosopher types don't supply the money or numbers to be a real factors themselves.

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20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

MTU, you have to understand none of that matters anyway. For most of America, but esp the GOP, politics, which was only ever loosely tied to policy in the US anyway is now completely umooored from it. And TBH, we pretty much have a policy ignorant population anyway. So it's all about the snake oil. It's all personality, entertainment and tribal identity now. The only role of policy is as subject matter to hang rhetoric on in order to create the public persona. Trump could take any position on any policy but as long as he talks about it in terms of white greivance and owning the libs and makes it all about him, it would still sell to his supporters equally well. You have a whole generation of GOP Congressional leadership who have built their popularity without having accomplishing anything at all policy wise or legislatively (MTG/Bobert/Jordan McCarthy etc). 

US politics, esp on the right, has to be observed through the lens of the WWE. That's the model.

I think this is largely right, but in terms of the WWE analogy, the only person in the ring is Donald Trump.... all of the other candidates won't so much as lay a finger on him and appear to just be hoping he implodes on his own. DeSantis chief among them.

And it's because the entire situation is a Catch-22.... it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination without attacking Trump, but it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination by attacking Trump.

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2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The money that fuels the GOP comes from four distinct source: 

  • Rich business guys who want lower taxes and less regulation.  Could care less about culture war but they don't poll well with this stuff except for among their own class and those aspiring to be in that class.  Paul Ryan is their hero.  They think Captain Hazelwood got a bad rap. 
  • Social conservative rich guys who live to play with model trains and plan the biological functions of young women.  They live to create a world in which women have to wear dresses and explain their menstruations to male authority figures.  Mercer family is their hero. 
  • Small dollar donors who want to create hell for the libs.  They love WWE and the storylines. Trump is their boy. 
  • Small dollar donors who create cover for Russian funding for the NRA and associated pro-firearms groups.  They love anyone who shoots a person of color.  They support the TN GOP. 

Maybe there are others.  These seem to be the most prevelent.  

Very good. But #1 probably outspends the rest at least 2:1. Maybe Trump's greatest political strength has been his ability to direct fund raise to his own personal brand, but that's Trump's particular personality cult gift. Most pols are not going to be able to do that and so will depend on those Corp interests more than Trump had to.

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think this is largely right, but in terms of the WWE analogy, the only person in the ring is Donald Trump.... all of the other candidates won't so much as lay a finger on him and appear to just be hoping he implodes on his own. DeSantis chief among them.

And it's because the entire situation is a Catch-22.... it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination without attacking Trump, but it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination by attacking Trump.

Yup. Christie is out there trying to prove the counterfactual, but he carries so much baggage (figuratively and iiterally!) that he's got a big hill to climb.

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20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think this is largely right, but in terms of the WWE analogy, the only person in the ring is Donald Trump.... all of the other candidates won't so much as lay a finger on him and appear to just be hoping he implodes on his own. DeSantis chief among them.

And it's because the entire situation is a Catch-22.... it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination without attacking Trump, but it's exceedingly unlikely to win a nomination by attacking Trump.

Which all goes back to Lindsey Graham's statement that  if they nominate Trump the republican party will be destroyed.

He's hijacked it.  If he's not the nominee then he takes his voters and goes home or runs third party and shaves off just enough support to prevent a GOP win. If he is the nominee then he drives away more voters.

 

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18 minutes ago, oblong said:

Which all goes back to Lindsey Graham's statement that  if they nominate Trump the republican party will be destroyed.

I don't get this. Trump 1) delivered massive tax cuts 2) overturned Roe through his 3 appointments (while packing lower federal courts with nut jobs) 3) directed a massive amount of hate towards "bad" Americans and immigrants 4) and kept Hillary from winning.

He was an incredibly effective GOP president in that he gave many parts of the GOP exactly what they wanted - rules, laws, decency, humanity, be damned.

Yes, he mobilized Dems to wins in 2018 and 2020 and a stalemate in 2022, but history will show he gave the GOP a lot of short term wins. Unclear if there will be any long term price to be paid.

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56 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Unclear if there will be any long term price to be paid.

You can argue that Scrub had already begun the breakup of the Reagan GOP voter coalition but I don't think there is much arguement that Trump has considated the political movement of the white collar suburbs from the GOP to the Dems as well as pretty much every college educated woman. This is going to make it very hard for the GOP to build winning national coalitions in the future. Now as long as there is Gerrymandering, the GOP  be able to hold the House on and off, but the damage to the GOP as a functioning *majority* party has been pretty absolute. 

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24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You can argue that Scrub had already begun the breakup of the Reagan GOP voter coalition but I don't think there is much arguement that Trump has considated the political movement of the white collar suburbs from the GOP to the Dems as well as pretty much every college educated woman. This is going to make it very hard for the GOP to build winning national coalitions in the future. Now as long as there is Gerrymandering, the GOP  be able to hold the House on and off, but the damage to the GOP as a functioning *majority* party has been pretty absolute. 

Gerrymandering and voting restrictions among those unfavorable demos for them is the path forward now.

 

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2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Pretty telling when the Liberal won the Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin and Republicans saying Wisconsin is off the table for 2024. 

Gerrymandering doesn't help with statewide votes. But you are already seeing Red states trying to arrange to vote the EC by district.

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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Gerrymandering doesn't help with statewide votes. But you are already seeing Red states trying to arrange to vote the EC by district.

I think their reasoning was having the Republican super majority overturn the election in Wisconsin and getting it in front of the state supreme court. 

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22 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Very good. But #1 probably outspends the rest at least 2:1. Maybe Trump's greatest political strength has been his ability to direct fund raise to his own personal brand, but that's Trump's particular personality cult gift. Most pols are not going to be able to do that and so will depend on those Corp interests more than Trump had to.

Good thing for Dems is that their #1 source for money comes from Rich business guys who want lower taxes and less regulation (for themselves). 

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23 hours ago, pfife said:

That dude is a total pud.

I blame the media.   It's ridiculous that this toolbox is constantly fellated while being completely useless... meanwhile Big Gretch is kicking ass and the media is absent.

Fear and loathing gets better ratings than competence.

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22 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

But isn't that what all Republican Presidents are paid to do? It was easier for Trump to do because he had a 100% Republican Congress.  

I’m coming round to the idea that the all-Republican government of 2017-18 was basically the dog that caught the car—not because they didn’t know what to do with it, but rather they knew it was a bad idea to do anything with it.

Republicans as currently constructed is an “anti” entity—they get their power being anti-Democrats, anti-woke, anti-trans, anti-etc. So they need to be seen as being on the outside to maintain their power. If they started making decisions once they got power, they would not only be held accountable for those decisions, but they would also come to be considered insiders, which among that base would be a one-way ticket to the outside of the party. I think that’s why they did basically nothing even when they were in control: it was have been political suicide for them to do anything.

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