2024 Presidential Election thread

[ben9753]

@gehringer_2Why are so sure he can’t win the election? I’m terrified he will. 

[Tiger337]

35 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Desantis is toast. The nomination is Trump's.

He can't lose the nomination and he can't win the election. The drama in 2024 will be over Congress, and whether Trump actually ends up convicted somewhere before the voting so we have the first Federal Election in history with a convicted felon on the ballot.

He can win the election if the economy goes into the tank.  The polls do not suggest that Biden will easily beat Trump. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, ben9753 said:

@gehringer_2Why are so sure he can’t win the election? I’m terrified he will. 

you should be, but that is also the answer. Hard to imagine anyone that voted against him in 2020 will not do so again. Or to put it another way - what voters/constituencies can anyone identify that are growing or that will vote for Trump in '24 that didn't in '20? 

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

He can win the election if the economy goes into the tank.  The polls do not suggest that Biden will easily beat Trump. 

The 'unknown' is always out there, but in terms of the more probable futures, my current take would be that the most likely 'downside' economic outcome is that the Fed already has inflation coming down fast enough that they overshoot on the target to the downside and they end up with a growth-deflation. If that happens they will have to start pushing more $$ back out - and that won't hurt the incumbent.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The 'unknown' is always out there, but in terms of the more probable futures, my current take would be that the most likely 'downside' economic outcome is that the Fed already has inflation coming down fast enough that they overshoot on the target to the downside and they end up with a growth-deflation. If that happens they will have to start pushing more $$ back out - and that won't hurt the incumbent.

Even without an economic downturn, I don't understand why people here are so confident Trump can not win. He won in 2016 when he "couldn't win" and I think he would have won in 2020 if not for Covid.  2020 was not exactly a landslide.  We were waiting for days to get the final result.  If Trump can't win, why is he about even or even better in all the polls? I am not saying I think he will win.  It's the assertion that he can not win that I don't get.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

you should be, but that is also the answer. Hard to imagine anyone that voted against him in 2020 will not do so again. Or to put it another way - what voters/constituencies can anyone identify that are growing or that will vote for Trump in '24 that didn't in '20? 

People won't decide to switch their vote to Trump, but they might decide not to vote. 2020 was the biggest voter turn out ever.  That is not necessarily going to happen again.  

[romad1]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

you should be, but that is also the answer. Hard to imagine anyone that voted against him in 2020 will not do so again. Or to put it another way - what voters/constituencies can anyone identify that are growing or that will vote for Trump in '24 that didn't in '20? 

The Dems and nevertrumps are still going to need to block and tackle (i.e., do the small tactical stuff) to win.  Ground games and early vote efforts will matter as much as having enough lawyers to block all the petulant after-the-election sore-loserism that Trump will try.

[gehringer_2]

36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

People won't decide to switch their vote to Trump, but they might decide not to vote. 2020 was the biggest voter turn out ever.  That is not necessarily going to happen again.  

Radicalism on either side drives turnout on the other. Since the 2020 vote, when Dems were already scared ****less,  you've had Jan 6, the attempt to steal the election,  if anything, the GOP both at state and local levels continues to drive to ever more radical legislative proposals. Thomas and Alito continue to keep the SCOTUS front and center as a threat source, Pence is out there pushing a Federal abortion ban. The HOR will be running Biden impeachment hearings next year and will probably have shut down the Gov for some extended period before this year is out. And Trump's rhetoric is more unhinged than ever. Again - it's pretty hard to imagine the 2020 Dem voter that's sitting around next fall thinking "Oh, it's good to know that the GOP threat to the body politic has finally subsided." And finally, the new 18-22yr old voters in 2024 will skew blue.

Since these are both old men - some kind of medical scare situation is in play for both. Trump obviously won't get the nomination if he drops dead. A medical scare would be the biggest worry for Biden as well. But that's not a 'political' risk per se.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The Dems and nevertrumps are still going to need to block and tackle (i.e., do the small tactical stuff) to win.  Ground games and early vote efforts will matter as much as having enough lawyers to block all the petulant after-the-election sore-loserism that Trump will try.

absolutely.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

why is he about even or even better in all the polls?

I think there are a few dynamics behind this, but the main one would be that polls measure who people are for, elections mostly measure who they are against. In that  NYT poll that showed the race close, 14% showed undecided, but there really are no undecided voters in the US anymore -  the polls reflect people who wish the dems had a different candidate but are going to go vote against Trump regardless.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think there are a few dynamics behind this, but the main one would be that polls measure who people are for, elections mostly measure who they are against. In that  NYT poll that showed the race close, 14% showed undecided, but there really are no undecided voters in the US anymore -  the polls reflect people who wish the dems had a different candidate but are going to go vote against Trump regardless.

I didn't look at the tabs (I dont subscribe to the Times anymore), but the most overlooked part of Biden's disapproval gemerally is that it really is kind of a soft disapproval that is driven primarily by his age. And often is coming from inside the tent from people who would never consider a vote for Trump.

Really, I would like one pollster to ask a follow up question of the disapprovers:

If you answered disapprove and had to choose between Donald Trump, Joe Biden or neither, who would you vote for?

Biden wouldn't end up with a majority obviously, but I suspect it would be some ~20% minority chunk that, added to his approval, probably puts him above Trump more often than not.

Edited August 1, 2023 by mtutiger

[digitalpigsmuggler]

 

 

 

[digitalpigsmuggler]

On 7/29/2023 at 8:06 AM, chasfh said:

The perception by people of inflation is directly related to the media they consume.

Lulz, actually it is the gas they buy or the groceries they are purchasing at the supermarket. 

[pfife]

Yet people have different opinions on inflation...

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

 

Really, I would like one pollster to ask a follow up question of the disapprovers:

If you answered disapprove and had to choose between Donald Trump, Joe Biden or neither, who would you vote for?

Biden wouldn't end up with a majority obviously, but I suspect it would be some ~20% minority chunk that, added to his approval, probably puts him above Trump more often than not.

This NYT Newsletter addresses it a bit. The assumption that a small majority of the NOTA's would lean toward Biden. I have a feeling we're looking at something similar to 2016 where a majority really didn't want either candidate. Biden's age (nobody seems concerned about Trump's age and BMI) as well as choice for VP could play into the calculation as well.

i'm not sure if this link will work, but here goes

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?abVariantId=0&campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230801&instance_id=98934&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=73869733&segment_id=140795&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F39711863-c9ad-58b2-8f6c-6f90e89b2424&user_id=ab209330359f3e3101d0a3b6a50d1777

[1984Echoes]

59 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

I'd rather vote for a dead Joe Biden than a living Republican.

Edited August 1, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

of course why a 90 yr old man still cares how much money he dies with seems beyond any logic

Because at a certain point, it’s no longer about the money. It’s about the winning.

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Radicalism on either side drives turnout on the other. Since the 2020 vote, when Dems were already scared ****less,  you've had Jan 6, the attempt to steal the election,  if anything, the GOP both at state and local levels continues to drive to ever more radical legislative proposals. Thomas and Alito continue to keep the SCOTUS front and center as a threat source, Pence is out there pushing a Federal abortion ban. The HOR will be running Biden impeachment hearings next year and will probably have shut down the Gov for some extended period before this year is out. And Trump's rhetoric is more unhinged than ever. Again - it's pretty hard to imagine the 2020 Dem voter that's sitting around next fall thinking "Oh, it's good to know that the GOP threat to the body politic has finally subsided." And finally, the new 18-22yr old voters in 2024 will skew blue.

Since these are both old men - some kind of medical scare situation is in play for both. Trump obviously won't get the nomination if he drops dead. A medical scare would be the biggest worry for Biden as well. But that's not a 'political' risk per se.

It's pretty easy for me to imagine a small percent of Americans getting lazy and just not voting.  Why might that happen in 2024 and not 2020?  The one thing that's not going on now which I think may have influenced people last time is Covid.  Many people are feeling better about their lives without the fear of Covid hanging over their heads.  

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Desantis is toast. The nomination is Trump's.

He can't lose the nomination and he can't win the election. The drama in 2024 will be over Congress, and whether Trump actually ends up convicted somewhere before the voting so we have the first Federal Election in history with a convicted felon on the ballot.

Trump won in 2016 and then got more votes in 2020. He absolutely can win the White House.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Biden wouldn't end up with a majority obviously, but I suspect it would be some ~20% minority chunk that, added to his approval, probably puts him above Trump more often than not.

Exactly, "more often than not".  Not "Trump can't win".  

Edited August 1, 2023 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Exactly, more often than not.  Not "Trump can't win".  

Despite G2's framing or the framing that the race generally gets in the MSM, I doubt there are many people who think "Trump Can't Win"

[chasfh]

lol lulz

what, are we 4chan now?

 

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Despite G2's framing or the framing that the race generally gets in the MSM, I doubt there are many people who think "Trump Can't Win"

I have seen more than one person here say that.  Chas said it too.  He said there is no way Trump can win unless he cheats (which he 100% will try to do).  I think Echoes said it too, although it might have been after 10 coffees and a few cokes.  

Edited August 1, 2023 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen more than one person here say that.  Chas said it too.  He said there is no way Trump can win unless he cheats (which he 100% will try to do).  I think Echoes said it too, although it might have been after 10 coffees and a few cokes.  

Fair enough, but I think the MSM framing, if anything, probably oversells it a bit at the moment. Which is sort of what I'm speaking to.

[CMRivdogs]

After what Youngkin did in Virginia in '21, I'm not taking anything for granted. Trumpkin isn't DJT and maybe closer to DeSantis in philosophy, but he was still a wolf in sheepskin vest.

His opponent was not inspiring either and a bunch of otherwise intelligent people got fooled.

The key factor in 2024 just may be how many people say f-.... it and stay home,