2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

After what Youngkin did in Virginia in '21, I'm not taking anything for granted.

But this is why it works. As long as everyone on the blue side stays appropriately paranoid, Trump has no shot. If I didn't sense so much paranoia out there I wouldn't be as confident.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, CMRivdogs said:

After what Youngkin did in Virginia in '21, I'm not taking anything for granted. Trumpkin isn't DJT and maybe closer to DeSantis in philosophy, but he was still a wolf in sheepskin vest.

His opponent was not inspiring either and a bunch of otherwise intelligent people got fooled.

The key factor in 2024 just may be how many people say f-.... it and stay home,

That's fair, but the other counterpoint is the 2022 Midterms.... the assumptions going in largely did not bear out either.

It's fine to be concerned, but it's still 16 months out, the GOP still hasn't had any debates and Americans largely aren't thinking about the 2024 Election right now. And Trump, despite being in the news for his legal troubles, isn't necessarily on camera every day reminding the majority of Americans why they can't stand the guy, which will change this time next year.

[1984Echoes]

17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen more than one person here say that.  Chas said it too.  He said there is no way Trump can win unless he cheats (which he 100% will try to do).  I think Echoes said it too, although it might have been after 10 coffees and a few cokes.  

No coffee (don't drink it).

But 6 Dr. Peppers will do nicely...

 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[Dan Gilmore]

There are still more indictments on the horizon, and while those won’t keep diehard MAGAs away, they should weaken support from others, as would convictions. And so far the lame opposition on the GOP side has been playing possum as far as criticism of Drumpf. Whether that matters, or changes out of desperation, I don’t know. I expect some will feel they need to differentiate themselves by being more critical.
 

Much of the electorate won’t pay much attention until this time next year. Lots could happen between then and now, but I doubt much of it will be good for Drumpf. Maybe if he can beat the wrap on most of the charges. I think the cases being brought have enough weight to make that unlikely.

[1984Echoes]

18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen more than one person here say that.  Chas said it too.  He said there is no way Trump can win unless he cheats (which he 100% will try to do).  I think Echoes said it too, although it might have been after 10 coffees and a few cokes.  

PS: I don't think I ever said 100% "can't win" because I don't believe in absolutes where only gray reigns...

But I think the likelihood of a Dem (ANY Dem, Biden or otherwise) beating Donald MF'ing Trump is about 99.9%.

But not 100%.

[chasfh]

On the old board, I (famously?) rooted for Trump to get the nomination in 2016, assuming he would get smoked like a cheap cigar in the general, because I mistakenly thought everyone already knew who he is. That was wrong. He did lose the popular vote by 3MM, but then the fckn Electoral College.

In 2018, after two years of Trump showing everyone who he is, he was the catalyst of losing Congress for the Republicans. People started to become animated to vote against him.

In 2020 I was concerned about Trump beating Biden, but he’d had two more years to show people who he is, and he ended up losing both the popular vote by 8MM and for real. People were very animated to vote against him.

In 2022, even though Trump was out of office, he loomed like a big shadow over that election such that the animating issue was Trumpism wrapped around abortion, and an election that the Republicans were thought to have in the bag was almost lost by them in the House, and was (mostly) lost by them in the Senate. People were still animated to vote against Trump.

Now, what’s going to happen in 2024? In a world where anything can happen, sure, Trump could win. But I think most people (at least here) agree that it would probably not be because Trump is going to win back voters who left him, or scoop up millions of undecideds. It would probably be because people who opposed him enough to vote against him in the midterms would suddenly become apathetic in a presidential election and fail to show up to vote at all.

So the $64 question at hand is, are people now apathetic about Trump and the Republicans? Because it’s not just about Trump anymore. It’s also the whole party, which got fired up by Trumpism, overextending themselves by going all in on the impeachment farce and the culture war issues both real and fake and, most of all, the banning of abortion completely.

Are people apathetic about all that now after having been all animated over it in 2022? Or, if the economy does a new 180 and is perceived to be going t**s up, will people be scared into voting Trump and the Republicans when they would normally vote against them? Looks to me like those are the two big questions there. Because I agree with most people here that there is probably not a base of millions of people who have never voted Trump, or who left the Republicans because of the Trumpism, who are itching to come back and vote for Trump next year.

tl;dr I like our chances, but nothing is 100%.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

There are still more indictments on the horizon, and while those won’t keep diehard MAGAs away, they should weaken support from others, as would convictions. And so far the lame opposition on the GOP side has been playing possum as far as criticism of Drumpf. Whether that matters, or changes out of desperation, I don’t know. I expect some will feel they need to differentiate themselves by being more critical.
 

Much of the electorate won’t pay much attention until this time next year. Lots could happen between then and now, but I doubt much of it will be good for Drumpf. Maybe if he can beat the wrap on most of the charges. I think the cases being brought have enough weight to make that unlikely.

I'll be surprised if any of the trials are completed before the election.

[Tiger337]

I think the majoity of Americans are apathetic about politics in general.  So, yeah I think after record numbers in 2020, it very well might regress to the mean in a post-Covid world.  It's not anywhere near 99% probability for Biden at the moment.  

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

In 2022, even though Trump was out of office, he loomed like a big shadow over that election such that the animating issue was Trumpism wrapped around abortion, and an election that the Republicans were thought to have in the bag was almost lost by them in the House, and was (mostly) lost by them in the Senate. People were still animated to vote against Trump.

Somehow it's memory-holed, but the discourse going into the election and how the election played out was such a misfire by the people who do the stuff for a living. Like, outright dismissive to the point of being mocking of the idea that Roe v. Wade repeal would matter much or that election denialism would matter at all.

And yeah, all these same folks are back for 2024 to provide the framing for this upcoming election. Just worth keeping in mind IMO

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

.I think the majoity of Americans are apathetic about politics in general.  So, yeah I think after record numbers in 2020, it very well might regress to the mean in a post-Covid world.  It's not anywhere near 99% probability for Biden at the moment.  

Well, it is true that as PT Barnum famously said, "No man ever went broke overestimating the ignorance of the American public."

[oblong]

I worry about turnout.  If there's high turnout, then Trump will lose.  If there's low turnout then he could win if his supporters are still passionate.  But I question that too.  Plus I don't overlook the covid death numbers.  His margins were so slim that it wouldn't take much.

I guess it will come down to AZ, GA,WI, and to a lesser extent PA and NC.

Also don't overlook abortion. It's still a hot topic.

If Trump isn't the nominee then I think it will be someone like a Kemp or Youngkin who will come in at the last minute.  I also have it in my head that Christie could get it.  I know that's crazy considering where he is in the polls but I also remember McCain being pretty low in 2008, but that was an entirely different electorate.  

 

[digitalpigsmuggler]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

Yet people have different opinions on inflation...

 

[pfife]

And yet people have different opinions on inflation

[1984Echoes]

20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the majoity of Americans are apathetic about politics in general.  So, yeah I think after record numbers in 2020, it very well might regress to the mean in a post-Covid world.  It's not anywhere near 99% probability for Biden at the moment.  

The Anti-Trump Angst is NOT going to die out quickly.

If he's on the ballot, Dems will come out in DROVES to vote against him, as will moderate Independents.

So yes... 99%

[digitalpigsmuggler]

6 minutes ago, pfife said:

And yet people have different opinions on inflation

They sure do.

You just can’t really afford to live like you were before’: Here’s how Americans are feeling the strain of inflation

Quote

for regular Americans, the pain of inflation is still most acute in the headline categories of energy and especially food, which are both outpacing core CPI and forcing people to reset their expectations about what they can afford as consumers.

Inflation “is making me have to change my food planning completely, because I have to drop down in the quality of the products that I’m using for my kids.

Quote

price of food across the country is 10.1 percent higher than it was a year ago. Grocery prices, which are reflected in the Labor Department’s food-at-home category, are up 11.3 percent since last year.

Quote

Even if you live a basic lifestyle, you just can’t really afford to live like you were before,” Brooke, who works the front desk of the YMCA in Greenwood

https://thehill.com/business/3857773-you-just-cant-really-afford-to-live-like-you-were-before-heres-how-americans-are-feeling-the-strain-of-inflation/

Edited August 1, 2023 by digitalpigsmuggler

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, oblong said:

I worry about turnout.  If there's high turnout, then Trump will lose...

If Trump is on the ballot...

It's a high turnout.

If Trump is NOT on the ballot... then turnout will be much, much more up-in-the-air, depending on multitudes of factors.

But Trump on the ballot = HUGE turnout.

Book it.

[1984Echoes]

Inflation?

WHAT INFLATION?

We talkin' 'bout inflation?

Don't know what you talkin' 'bout.

WHAT INFLATION?

I think it's just your 'magination... 

Says the Temptations.

[gehringer_2]

36 minutes ago, oblong said:

If there's low turnout then he could win if his supporters are still passionate.  But I question that too. 

Also  - "Loser" is a very hard tag to overcome in American politics. Nixon did it, but against a really damaged Democratic party and with third party draining even more Southern Dem votes on top of Johnson's Civil Right stance.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

37 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

 

Weren't you the one who just on previous page lulzed me by pointing out that actually it is the gas they buy or the groceries they are purchasing at the supermarket that drive inflation perception? And now you're pointing to everything but the gas they buy or the groceries they are purchasing?

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Also  - "Loser" is a very hard tag to overcome in American politics. Nixon did it, but against a really damaged Democratic party and with third party draining even more Southern Dem votes on top of Johnson's Civil Right stance.

Nixon did it because he sabotaged the Paris peace talks.

[gehringer_2]

Since I'm being the designated Pollyanna for 2024 today I'll add one more. In 2020 you had a polarizing Nancy Pelosi in full force in the House, and a master tactician Mitch McConnell still in full control of his faculties helping to engineer positive legislative spin for the GOP in the Senate. Today the House GOP leadeship is a clown show and Mitch McConnell has recently become a shell of his former self. Aside from the episode last week, there are a lot of reports around out that his energy level inside caucus leadership is way down. This stuff is not so much a Trump/Biden factor but their poor Congressional performance is another contribution to general GOP party weakness with independents.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[pfife]

1 hour ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

They sure do.

...

My salary and portfolio are up bigly since Biden took over.  Sounds like you need more bootstraps and less blaming the government 

[CMRivdogs]

Now that DeSantis seems to be DOA there is a part of me that wishes the other pretenders just step aside and allow either Christie or Hurd to go head to head against Trump.

True, it's a suicide mission, neither has a chance, much like all the Trump lite characters in the race. The NeverTrumper wing of the party needs someone with the gonads to take him on one on one. And go after his shins.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Now that DeSantis seems to be DOA there is a part of me that wishes the other pretenders just step aside and allow either Christie or Hurd to go head to head against Trump.

True, it's a suicide mission, neither has a chance, much like all the Trump lite characters in the race. The NeverTrumper wing of the party needs someone with the gonads to take him on one on one. And go after his shins.

The other reason this would be good is because making sure Christie's criticism of Trump gets media oxygen is a way to help insure Democratic GE turnout.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Since I'm being the designated Pollyanna for 2024 today I'll add one more. In 2020 you had a polarizing Nancy Pelosi in full force in the House, and a master tactician Mitch McConnell still in full control of his faculties helping to engineer positive legislative spin for the GOP in the Senate. Today the House GOP leadeship is a clown show and Mitch McConnell has recently become a shell of his former self. Aside from the episode last week, there are a lot of reports around out that his energy level inside caucus leadership is way down. This stuff is not so much a Trump/Biden factor but their poor Congressional performance is another contribution to general GOP party weakness with independents.

I think that's icing, not the cake.

Trump is the cake.

A poisoned cake that everyone knows for 100% certainty... and to avoid like the plague.

Except for MAGA. They're perfectly fine eating poisoned cake. Although I don't see how they can eat that cake and "have" it too...