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2024 Presidential Election thread


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16 hours ago, MIguy said:

The crazy Kennedy is going Independent.  

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/

I just hope people on the left are smart enough to look past his last name to see what a crackpot he is.  

I think they are, at least as far as those on the left edge of the Democratic Party are concerned. The main concern I have is that Kennedy siphons off enough of those hard lefties that it makes the difference in the election.

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2016 saw historic rises in 3rd party voting because people didn't like Trump or Clinton.  I think we're going to see the same sort of numbers in the 2024 election.  As a refresher, here are the approximate number of third party votes in Michigan for the past three presidential elections.....

2012 - 50,000

2016 - 250,000

2020 - 83,000

The important thing to remember from this is that Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just over 11,000 votes.  Someone like the crazy Kennedy being on the ballot could very well be what decides who wins Michigan and other key states.  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Maybe, although eight years is long enough for a new generation of ignorant people with votes to come of age.

The youth on the left don't remember any of them and don't care.  That's different from the elderly on the right who still talk about Reagan.  The left wants progress.  The right used to want everything to stay the same.  Now it wants regression back to the 1950s?  Or is it the 1860s?    

Edited by Tiger337
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1 hour ago, MIguy said:

2016 saw historic rises in 3rd party voting because people didn't like Trump or Clinton.  I think we're going to see the same sort of numbers in the 2024 election.  As a refresher, here are the approximate number of third party votes in Michigan for the past three presidential elections.....

2012 - 50,000

2016 - 250,000

2020 - 83,000

The important thing to remember from this is that Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just over 11,000 votes.  Someone like the crazy Kennedy being on the ballot could very well be what decides who wins Michigan and other key states.  

we can only hope the dynamic is reversed. In '16 you had a lot of Dems that didn't want to vote for Clinton. Hopefully in ;24 we have a lot of Repub that don't want to vote for Trump.

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3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The youth on the left don't remember any of them and don't care.  That's different from the elderly on the right who still talk about Reagan.  The left wants progress.  The right used to want everything to stay the same.  Now it wants regression back to the 1950s?  Or is it the 1860s?    

Nah, they don’t want the 1860s. April 1954 will suffice.

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21 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

we can only hope the dynamic is reversed. In '16 you had a lot of Dems that didn't want to vote for Clinton. Hopefully in ;24 we have a lot of Repub that don't want to vote for Trump.

They didn't want to, and many of them didn't, because they assumed she'd win anyway.  But if they could redo their vote I bet they would have.

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On 9/30/2023 at 5:05 PM, oblong said:

After Nader in 2000 and Stein in 2016 I think the hard core left learned their lesson. 

It also doesn't hurt that Bernie, who still holds sway over A LOT of these voters, has been pretty outspoken in his support for Joe Biden since after the 2020 primary.

21 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

we can only hope the dynamic is reversed. In '16 you had a lot of Dems that didn't want to vote for Clinton. Hopefully in ;24 we have a lot of Repub that don't want to vote for Trump.

Still think one of the more underdiscussed things about 2022 and special elections since has been the fact that there's been clear evidence that persuasion has made an impact.... Republicans won the popular vote at the national level in 2022 yet still only won a slim majority and managed to lose a lot of winnable races in the Midwest / PA / etc. In some of the special elections since 2022, GOP turnout has been decent relative to Dem turnout, yet the Dem candidates are outperforming 2020 Biden in their districts, etc.

And that speaks a bit to your latter suggestion.... whether it's Trump being Trump or Roe V Wade or both, there exists at least some evidence that the number of anti-Trump Republicans out there is being underestimated both in the polls and in the discourse. We'll have to see in due time.

Edited by mtutiger
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To be clear, if Trump wins there will be riots in the cities, where teh left lives, but if Trump wins, some people will be somewhat unhappy and there will be conflict, probably coming from teh left, because, you know, teh left.

The Presidential Election Outcome Could Lead to Violence

Washington Times

If Trump is elected president, there almost certainly will be widespread riots in our cities. Similarly, in the event of Mr. Biden’s reelection, large segments of American society may refuse to accept him as president, and the subsequent four years would be marked by conflict. The United States may become ungovernable.

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37 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

More Biden votes in blue states, Trump votes in swing states. Just a hunch, but I see west coast hippy types being on board with him, as well as antivaxxers across the country.

West coast hippy types wouldn't bother me at all.

My only worries would bein the purple states.

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34 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

There's also Option 3, where he's Kanye 2.0.... I think that stock in this discussion is undervalued.

This would be the preferred option.

I am hoping that Trump has shown enough poison that everyone is NOW a sensible voter (Independents and moderates of both parties and even some of the fringe left types) and will vote for NOONE except a Democrat until American Fascism has died out (or at least died down to a minor fringe instead of an entire Republican Party...)

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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Just a guess but I think of the IDGAF voters who did support Trump beause "they're all crooked" could vote for RJK Jr, if they even bother voting.  But there has to be a draw to him like Trump had.  The rallies, the slogans, etc.  He could get a few % votes in a poll but how does that translate to people actually voting.

 

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