2024 Presidential Election thread

[MIguy]

I saw a story about Taylor Swift taking to Instagram to tell people to remember to vote and it made me think of a surefire way for Biden to win.  Dump Kamala and make Tay Tay your VP and the Swifties will come out in force for you.  And yes, Taylor Swift will be 35 before the next administration is sworn in.

[oblong]

Taylor could totally change the electorate if she got passionate about politics in a big way. I love seeing all the outrage from fanboys already due to Kelce.  Bros are triggered. 

[mtutiger]

The polls are what they are, but this is shaping up to be another disappointing midterm/offyear election for the GOP since Trump has come on board.

[MIguy]

Can we dump Biden and run Andy Beshear in 2024?  

[1984Echoes]

You can run a dead horse for the Dems in 2024 and I'll vote for the dead horse.

[mtutiger]

2 cycles in a row where the media said abortion didn't matter... 2 cycles in a row where it was a big factor.

[Jim Cowan]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's yet to be quantified...

So hold off on lol I would 

The Democratic party is losing the under-30 liberals because (a) they think that Biden has done SFA about climate change and (b) they cannot abide the policy that Israel can do no wrong and that if Israel bombs an apartment building it is somehow a war crime that Hamas has committed.  That's a non-starter.  

Point (b) is the key here.  Anybody who gives Israel carte blanche to bomb civilian locations in Gaza is playing directly into Trump's hands, by alienating the young voters that the Democratic party so desperately  needs.

So no, holding off on the LOL about blaming boomers for Trump, I think I would double up on the LOL.  

 

 

 

[1984Echoes]

10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

The Democratic party is losing the under-30 liberals because (a) they think that Biden has done SFA about climate change and (b) they cannot abide the policy that Israel can do no wrong and that if Israel bombs an apartment building it is somehow a war crime that Hamas has committed...

So go ahead and quantify that.

Prove it.

Because otherwise... that's just a bunch of hot air that you are lol'ing at...

[1984Echoes]

PS: Like how abortion and marijuana were approved in Ohio (red state) yesterday? Or like how Dem Governor Brashear was re-elected in blood red Kentucky yesterday? Or how Republicans LOST their House of Delegates in Virginia yesterday?

Oh WAIT!!! That's the OPPOSITE of what you are lol'ing at!!!

You are lol'ing at HOT AIR.

Sorry.

[gehringer_2]

11 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

The Democratic party is losing the under-30 liberals because (a) they think that Biden has done SFA about climate change and (b) they cannot abide the policy that Israel can do no wrong and that if Israel bombs an apartment building it is somehow a war crime that Hamas has committed.  That's a non-starter.  

Point (b) is the key here.  Anybody who gives Israel carte blanche to bomb civilian locations in Gaza is playing directly into Trump's hands, by alienating the young voters that the Democratic party so desperately  needs.

So no, holding off on the LOL about blaming boomers for Trump, I think I would double up on the LOL.  

 

 

 

TBH, I'm stuck by how little energy this conflict is generating here. Oh, there is plenty enough to feed the cable news cycle, and plenty of Arab and Jewish PR/agitprop money sloshing around to make sure there is grist for the media mill,  but we should realize by now that magnification by social media and the national news media really bears little true correlation to underlying public energy around the issue. I'd guess in general Americans are burned out on the ME. We just expect horrible things to happen there. It's the nature of America that every conflict around world has its partisans on both sides living here, but it's easy for the noise they make to obscure the wider apathy.

Edited November 8, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

TBH, I'm stuck by how little energy this conflict is generating here. Oh, there is plenty enough to feed the cable news cycle, and plenty of Arab and Jewish PR/agitprop money sloshing around to make sure there is grist for the media mill,  but we should realize by now that magnification by social media and the national news media really bears little true correlation to underlying public energy around the issue. I'd guess in general Americans are burned out on the ME. We just expect horrible things to happen there. It's the nature of America that every conflict around world has its partisans on both sides living here, but it's easy for the noise they make to obscure the wider apathy.

I also don't think that Americans really vote on foreign policy to the degree that the internet / SM thinks they do.

The other reality as well regarding this particular discussion about the degree to which it's helping / hurting is that some of the concerns regarding certain groups (ie. Arab Americans in Michigan) kinda elides the fact that overall, given the importance of Jewish voters to the Democratic coalition and the general level of sympathy that Americans as a whole have to Israel (even if they don't love everything Bibi / the Israeli govt is doing at the moment), there's a significant amount of political risk associated with doing what pro-Palestinian activists are asking as well. And I simply don't think that's ever acknowledged.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I also don't think that Americans really vote on foreign policy to the degree that the internet / SM thinks they do.

 

Agree. Or maybe put it that FP matters to US voters only in direct proportion to how many US boots are in harm's way somewhere.

[mtutiger]

This is a really good point... one party seems willing to at least attempt to course correct, the other just continually doubles down.

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: Like how abortion and marijuana were approved in Ohio (red state) yesterday? Or like how Dem Governor Brashear was re-elected in blood red Kentucky yesterday? Or how Republicans LOST their House of Delegates in Virginia yesterday?

Oh WAIT!!! That's the OPPOSITE of what you are lol'ing at!!!

You are lol'ing at HOT AIR.

Sorry.

OK well go ahead and keep blaming boomers for Trump, and I will keep laughing at that.

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This is a really good point... one party seems willing to at least attempt to course correct, the other just continually doubles down.

There is a deeper point about the abortion arg as well. It keeps working because it's the signifier for the broader critique that despite their rhetoric about guns and 'free' enterprise, the GOP is fundamentally not a party of personal freedom anymore. That's why the abortion issue rhetoric keeps working. It's today's shorthand for the whole debate around the elevation of religion over an open political process. Call it the left's dog whistle to avoid talking about religion directly.

OTOH, the flip side of the abortion issue is that I fear it's going to drive more true believers/evangelicals more firmly to acceptance of fascist politics in the US: So for a couple of generations, US anti-abortion forces could sustain both a belief in democracy and in the righteousness of their cause because it was the evil un-elected SCOTUS that had thwarted justice and once that was finally fixed through a democratic process, all would be well. Well guess what, they got their SCOTUS that gutted RvW and surprise, the democratic process is now rejecting their righteous cause at the ballot box all around the country. The only available conclusion is that democracy itself is a failed construct because it does not conform to the will of their god. This won't be a comfortable outcome for US politics, not that one was ever possible anyway.

Edited November 8, 2023 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

this one has been making the rounds... basically admitting the problem for the GOP is doing stuff that motivates democrats to vote.   According to Santorum's twisted logic the problem of democracy is people wanting to vote on things that interests/matters to them.

Not surprising from the guy who said allowing gay sex would lead to bestiality....

 

 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, oblong said:

this one has been making the rounds... basically admitting the problem for the GOP is doing stuff that motivates democrats to vote.   According to Santorum's twisted logic the problem of democracy is people wanting to vote on things that interests/matters to them.

Not surprising from the guy who said allowing gay sex would lead to bestiality....

 

 

LOL - "True Democracy is not the way to run a country"

Ron should watch his step. The Athenians made Socrates drink hemlock, probably not the least for espousing that view.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

There is a deeper point about the abortion arg as well. It keeps working because it's the signifier for the broader critique that despite their rhetoric about guns and 'free' enterprise, the GOP is fundamentally not a party of personal freedom anymore. That's why the abortion issue rhetoric keeps working. It's today's shorthand for the whole debate around the elevation of religion over an open political process. Call it the left's dog whistle to avoid talking about religion directly.

I've said it a few times around here, but I'm not sure that people grasp how much of Donald Trump's 2016 win came with the idea that he was actually moderate on abortion (among other issues) relative to a standard Republican.

Obviously, he ended up losing in 2020 in some small part because he made a much stronger embrace with evangelicals while in office (although I suspect other factors loomed larger).... but Dobbs I think drives an even deeper wedge between this Trump-style GOP and voters in the Midwest/Rust Belt states because many of them are not drawn to the GOP for the same reasons  that an evangelical voter in the South is. It really has blunted a lot of the momentum that was built upon that initial victory.

It kinda ties to tie into something I said after the H2H polls between Biden and Trump that got a lot of press over the weekend were released.... the results of that polling data doesn't mean Trump is popular at all.  It tells me that Biden, going forward, is going to need to work hard to consolidate his vote. Hopefully he can, whether it be through campaigning or whether it's by Trump being more salient as the campaign really starts to get underway.

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[Dan Gilmore]

Another problem with polling and punditry on abortion is that it tends to get framed as a binary. Pro Chioce vs Pro Life. I suspect many that lean towards the latter side are hugely put off by the lack of exceptions for women’s health, rape, incest, or even by time limits so short as to be virtually absolute bans. So many people, especially women, understand that it’s not so clearcut in the real world and that the hardliners are too zealous and vindictive. Take enough of those folks into account and you get a vote in Ohio (or Kansas or Colorado).

[RatkoVarda]

horrible person, but interesting compromise

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Another problem with polling and punditry on abortion is that it tends to get framed as a binary. Pro Chioce vs Pro Life. I suspect many that lean towards the latter side are hugely put off by the lack of exceptions for women’s health, rape, incest, or even by time limits so short as to be virtually absolute bans. So many people, especially women, understand that it’s not so clearcut in the real world and that the hardliners are too zealous and vindictive. Take enough of those folks into account and you get a vote in Ohio (or Kansas or Colorado).

The Virginia results are interesting because it was the first real case of the party trying to explicitly run on 15-week limit, which is (at least on the GOP side) seen as a compromise position.

And it kinda didn't work for a variety of reasons, not the least of which that the general electorate really doesn't trust the party on that issue. 

As a policy at the national level, a reason that something like that is a non-starter, IMO, is that it would provide a ceiling but no floor.... put another way, a 15 week ban that isn't coupled with some sort of minimum baseline of abortion coverage in states that currently have strict bans on the practice seems like it isn't really going to solve any problems for a lot of voters.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

...  some of the concerns regarding certain groups (ie. Arab Americans in Michigan) ..., there's a significant amount of political risk associated with doing what pro-Palestinian activists are asking as well. And I simply don't think that's ever acknowledged.

Worse for Islamic-Americans:

They have nowhere else to turn.

The White Trash Bigoted party (oops... Republicans) HATE Islamic-Americans. They can abide "top 1%" Jews who may be politically/ fiscally aligned with Republican ideology and that is only one reason (also, biblical theory on the land of Israel/ Jerusalem) that they heavily support Israel and are open to fellow Jewish Republicans even with the stain of antisemitism ingrained in a fairly large percentage of this current version of their party. And Jewish Republicans have at least a few reasons to stick with party even if there are also multiple differences they might have with this version. Lack of support of Israel is not one of them obviously.

But Islamic-Americans have nowhere else to turn but the Dems. The Republican Party is STRIDENTLY anti-Muslim, from top to bottom. 

Their best case scenario is a Dem Party that works hard to try to advance Palestinian statehood measures, supports both sides equally, and protects Islamic-Americans from the virulent hatred/ policies of the hard right. If they get less than that... From Biden or the Party as a whole, they can't just turn to the Republicans for relief. They either have to hold their noses and hope for better from the Dems/Biden (if they are not getting all that they want) and vote for them ANYWAYS. Or just stay home. And they're not going to just stay home. They are motivated voters by all accounts... I don't know how much this war changes that but we'll see next year. It affected nothing in this year's elections...

And as for young people? They're not "living or dying" on this issue. They have lots of issues with the older generations. Every issue is life or death for them (I'm being hyperbolic). Not just this one, and this one ONLY. That also came out in yesterday's elections. Abortion appears to have been the #1 issue (IE: PA Supreme Court Justice, Dem, elected after promising to protect abortion and pointing out opponent wants to strip abortion rights...).

NOT the Israeli-Gaza war.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

OK well go ahead and keep blaming boomers for Trump, and I will keep laughing at that.

I don't blame boomers for Trump.

I blame White Trash Bigots, of ALL voting ages, for Trump. 

[1984Echoes]

50 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I've said it a few times around here, but I'm not sure that people grasp how much of Donald Trump's 2016 win came with the idea that he was actually moderate on abortion (among other issues) relative to a standard Republican...

I don't think voters believed he would be a moderate on abortion...

He stated specifically that he would OVERTURN Roe v Wade, and that he would nominate Superiors who would specifically overturn Roe v Wade. The Evangelicals loved it and bought in, voting for him en masse. He got what he wanted by stating a NON-moderate position.

I think Republican women or any woman really, who actually supports the right to an abortion but voted for Trump anyways... did so because they just didn't believe him. Or believe that Roe v Wade could be overturned after 45 years of legal precedent. I mean.. Trump is a BUFFOON, but "I still like his policies" or something like that... and therefore, how could this "buffoon" actually do something that seemed so unlikely...? At least in the minds of many.

So: I don't think it was his "moderate" policies that win him 2016. It's the disbelief that he could actually be as BAD as what he was rep[resenting himself to be, that there would be guardrails to protect democracy from his worst instincts, that legal precedent mattered, etc...

And now most responsible adults are thinking (or at least we hope they are...): "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice..."

[oblong]

50 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Another problem with polling and punditry on abortion is that it tends to get framed as a binary. Pro Chioce vs Pro Life. I suspect many that lean towards the latter side are hugely put off by the lack of exceptions for women’s health, rape, incest, or even by time limits so short as to be virtually absolute bans. So many people, especially women, understand that it’s not so clearcut in the real world and that the hardliners are too zealous and vindictive. Take enough of those folks into account and you get a vote in Ohio (or Kansas or Colorado).

and many many people are nuanced and mature enough to hold a position that is "I think abortion is generally wrong, maybe even immoral, and women generally shouldn't get one but I don't think it should be illegal because a woman ultimately should have full autonomy over their body".  I think my wife falls into that camp.  The flirting around with banning contraceptives and denying certain cancer/medical treatments because a woman may be pregnant is also at play.  Throw in the higher risk women in their 40's face with pregancy issues... it's just too much.  It's the ultimate "Dog catching it's tail" analogy.