2024 Presidential Election thread

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

...

OTOH, the flip side of the abortion issue is that I fear it's going to drive more true believers/evangelicals more firmly to acceptance of fascist politics in the US: So for a couple of generations...

OTOH... Or what I am hoping for, in conjunction with what you've stated above because I agree with it:

Is that their CAUSTIC Theocracy becomes so abhorrent, and their fascist anti-democratic attitudes so apparent, that their popularity descends at a far more rapid pace than their increase in theo-fascism.

Can I get a Three Cheers for SECULARISM!?!?!

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, oblong said:

and many many people are nuanced and mature enough to hold a position that is "I think abortion is generally wrong, maybe even immoral, and women generally shouldn't get one but I don't think it should be illegal because a woman ultimately should have full autonomy over their body".  I think my wife falls into that camp.  The flirting around with banning contraceptives and denying certain cancer/medical treatments because a woman may be pregnant is also at play.  Throw in the higher risk women in their 40's face with pregnancy issues... it's just too much.  It's the ultimate "Dog catching it's tail" analogy.

 

We've been through this before.

It was called Prohibition.

It's just simply true that you cannot "legislate morality". 

The "Moral Majority" got what they wanted.

And now... guess what (to general audience, not a specific question to Rob)?

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

But Islamic-Americans have nowhere else to turn but the Dems. The Republican Party is STRIDENTLY anti-Muslim, from top to bottom. 

I agree with a lot of your post but one complicating factor for religious American Muslims that I would add is that Democratic liberalism on sex and gender doesn't play any better with religiously conservative Muslims than it does with religiously conservative Christians.

[mtutiger]

44 minutes ago, oblong said:

and many many people are nuanced and mature enough to hold a position that is "I think abortion is generally wrong, maybe even immoral, and women generally shouldn't get one but I don't think it should be illegal because a woman ultimately should have full autonomy over their body".  I think my wife falls into that camp.  The flirting around with banning contraceptives and denying certain cancer/medical treatments because a woman may be pregnant is also at play.  Throw in the higher risk women in their 40's face with pregancy issues... it's just too much.  It's the ultimate "Dog catching it's tail" analogy.

 

 

Shortly after the 2022 Midterms (in which Michigan voted in favor of Proposal 3), I had a conservative acquaintance of mine remark / complain about how much the media was focused on cases of rape/incest/health of mother about how you never used to hear about those exceptions that much prior to that election. And it's just like, well, yeah, you didn't hear about them because there was a minimum standard set for the entire country by which someone in those situations could resolve those issues.... and that, for people in a bunch of states, that was no longer the case. 

Taking out Roe V. Wade raised the saliency of these issues, but it also has raised a lot of questions for parents who are in childbearing years, as well as OBGYNs who have to navigate these tricky issues, particularly in states with strict laws against the practice. It should come as no surprise that this issue is still an issue.

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I agree with a lot of your post but one complicating factor for religious American Muslims that I would add is that Democratic liberalism on sex and gender doesn't play any better with religiously conservative Muslims than it does with religiously conservative Christians.

This is true.

Which could lead to "quiet" Republican votes in which someone has difficulty admitting they support Trump or the Republican Party in general, and therefore doesn't in public, but votes that way at the actual voting booth (a 2016 problem...).

So obviously, another vex in polling...

And potentially lost votes for the Dems but...

Can't please 100% of the people 100% of the time so to me it's as immaterial as the actual voting impact of the Israel-Hamas war (at least in my mind, at this point...).

 

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

... Can't please 100% of the people 100% of the time so to me it's as immaterial as the actual voting impact of the Israel-Hamas war (at least in my mind, at this point...).

Meaning...

I'm not going to stop supporting women's rights or the right for everyone to be treated equally regardless of sex or LGBTQ status because some Neanderthals (IMO) whine and choose to vote "conservative" because they want to outlaw or Inquisition LGBTQ and to treat women like chattel.

I'm not changing my stances. I'm sure they won't either.

We'll see whose ideology wins, in the long-term.

[mtutiger]

Did not hear these publicized much today, but the Georgia result is much different than the NYT poll

[Tiger337]

18 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

The Democratic party is losing the under-30 liberals because (a) they think that Biden has done SFA about climate change and (b) they cannot abide the policy that Israel can do no wrong and that if Israel bombs an apartment building it is somehow a war crime that Hamas has committed.  That's a non-starter.  

Point (b) is the key here.  Anybody who gives Israel carte blanche to bomb civilian locations in Gaza is playing directly into Trump's hands, by alienating the young voters that the Democratic party so desperately  needs.

So no, holding off on the LOL about blaming boomers for Trump, I think I would double up on the LOL.  

 

 

 

Yes, There are many liberals who fear what climate change will do to the earth as much as some people fear the end of democracy.  I mean, our democracy won't matter at all if the earth is destroyed.  So, if someone feels this way, why should they vote for Biden who they think has done virtually nothing on the climate change issue? We say that MAGAs are living in the 1950s.  The kids probably think we are living in the 80s.   

[Tiger337]

I was talking to my physical therapist today and the subject of election year came up.  I mentioned that it appears like we will get the same two candidates as last time.  She asked: "Biden and who else?"  She assumed that Trump had been convicted and wouldn't qualify.  There are a LOT of people like that out there who just don't care about politics or follow it much.  Probably at good third of the population.  Many of these people will be voting.  How do you reach them?  

[Jim Cowan]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, There are many liberals who fear what climate change will do to the earth as much as some people fear the end of democracy.  I mean, our democracy won't matter at all if the earth is destroyed.  So, if someone feels this way, why should they vote for Biden who they think has done virtually nothing on the climate change issue? We say that MAGAs are living in the 1950s.  The kids probably think we are living in the 80s.   

Yes, under-30 is a demographic in which low turnout is a chronic issue, and their disappointment about climate initiatives could easily cause them to abstain.  And while Americans in general might not vote on foreign policy issues, the university campuses are currently passionate about it and students could stay home on voting day for that reason too.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Jim Cowan

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I was talking to my physical therapist today and the subject of election year came up.  I mentioned that it appears like we will get the same two candidates as last time.  She asked: "Biden and who else?"  She assumed that Trump had been convicted and wouldn't qualify.  There are a LOT of people like that out there who just don't care about politics or follow it much.  Probably at good third of the population.  Many of these people will be voting.  How do you reach them?  

By Trump actually being on the ballot. (Which he will be)

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

By Trump actually being on the ballot. (Which he will be)

But if they don't pay attention to currents events, they probably don't realize how bad he is.  

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Yes, it is a demographic in which low turnout is a chronic issue, and their disappointment about climate initiatives could easily cause them to abstain.  And while Americans in general might not vote on foreign policy issues, the university campuses are currently passionate about it and students could stay home on voting day for that reason too.

As far as I can tell, they didn't abstain in Ohio or Pennsylvania last night. In particular, PA saw some pretty eye-opening numbers.

[mtutiger]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

But if they don't pay attention to currents events, they probably don't realize how bad he is.  

Again, we've already had this debate so we don't need to rehash it, but Biden's issues in polling aren't a reflection of Trump's popularity.

[Motor City Sonics]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I was talking to my physical therapist today and the subject of election year came up.  I mentioned that it appears like we will get the same two candidates as last time.  She asked: "Biden and who else?"  She assumed that Trump had been convicted and wouldn't qualify.  There are a LOT of people like that out there who just don't care about politics or follow it much.  Probably at good third of the population.  Many of these people will be voting.  How do you reach them?  

When **** starts getting taken away from them that they take for granted 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Again, we've already had this debate so we don't need to rehash it, but Biden's issues in polling aren't a reflection of Trump's popularity.

Trump is not popular, but neither is Biden.  And I can rehash any debate I please!

[Motor City Sonics]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

But if they don't pay attention to currents events, they probably don't realize how bad he is.  

It's the "Hey, I've heard of them before".   It's why a ****ing moron like Tommy Tuberville gets in the Senate.    Democrats do it too.  Martha Reeves had no business being a council member.  Nice lady, but come on, what were her qualifications.   Charles Pugh got the most votes because he was on TV and that's it.   Look how that ended up.     People are so intellectually lazy now.  It's a world of tweets.   

I watched a news cast from the late 70s where there was a political controversy with a judge in Metro Detroit, and the man on the street interview segment floored me.  People giving well-thought answers.     Some people refuse to read anything in detail now.  I am guilty of it too, but not to a completely ignorant degree.      Hell, if people on Trump's staff want him to read anything they have to put his name in almost every sentence or he won't read it.  A lot of Americans are like that now.  It's infuriating and sad and it will eventually be the end of us. 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Trump is not popular, but neither is Biden.  And I can rehash any debate I please!

I didn't say Biden was popular... clearly he has significant issues.

But the general election campaign has not started yet. And when we have evidence that comes in by way of actual votes being counted in actual states, that should mean at least as much as than n=1000 in Pennsylvania. 

I dont see any of that sort of introspection right now.

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motor City Sonics]

Just now, mtutiger said:

I didn't say Biden was popular... clearly he has significant issues.

But the general election campaign has not started yet. And when we have evidence that comes in by way of actual votes being counted in actual states, that should mean more than n=500 in Pennsylvania. 

Why would Biden campaign now?  Let the Republicans tear each other up, like they are.   Let them embarrass themselves, then when things get closer start really going for their throats.   Go after the ridiculous **** they say about guns and wanting to see medical records.  Go Super Dark Brandon on that stuff.       And you know what, play up the fact that he's not trying to win a popularity contest, he's there to work, which he's been doing.       Gotta stop hiding Harris so much, that is hurting them.   

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Why would Biden campaign now?  

Good question.

Regardless, when people say polling one year out isn't predictive, that might be an example of why 

[Motor City Sonics]

23 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Good question.

Regardless, when people say polling one year out isn't predictive, that might be an example of why 

And yeah, he's old, but Trump is only 3 years younger and will be older on election day than Biden was in 2020.    

I do think both sides need new blood and there are options but they don't have instant name recognition.   It seems to be the most important factor now.   If Oprah Winfrey jumped in the race as the Democratic contender, based on nothing but her name, she'd win the nomination easily.    And as smart as I think she is,  she's never been a politician - and being a politician is actually a skill and something that shouldn't be learned by someone who has the nuclear football.  

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

Yes, under-30 is a demographic in which low turnout is a chronic issue, and their disappointment about climate initiatives could easily cause them to abstain.  And while Americans in general might not vote on foreign policy issues, the university campuses are currently passionate about it and students could stay home on voting day for that reason too.

 

Like, on November 7th, 2023?

[mtutiger]

So, apparently there's a debate going on tonight....

Why? I have no clue.

[oblong]

The crazy guy, Vivek or whatever called Haley “**** Cheney in 3 inch heels”

and they are out doing each other in proclaiming how bad Israel should smoke Hamas.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I watched a news cast from the late 70s where there was a political controversy with a judge in Metro Detroit, and the man on the street interview segment floored me. 

Of course how much of that was because the reporter exercised editorial selection on what he was willing to put on the airwaves in that era, you will never know at this point.