Tiger337 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Just now, chasfh said: Wait a minute: you think Trump is a lock to be elected president next year? No, I think he's nearly a lock to get the nomination. He's got a good shot at winning the general election too, but it's far from a lock. I think it's going to be a closely contested race as it usually is and that neither side will accept the result if they lose and there will be four more years of angst either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said: Was just reading a Tim Miller piece on this past weekend's gathering of MAGAs. If there is a post Trump era it just might be Matt Gaetz https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-matt-gaetz-gop-future?r=45wcm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email I don't think the successor can be Gaetz, for two reasons: (1) He doesn't have the personality to maintain a cult of personality; (2) he's too politically stupid to understand that a Trump/Tucker ticket in 2024 would get absolutely crushed in a general election—or at least a free and fair election. I believe the narcissistic psychopathy of Trump actually precludes a successor, since he is so insecure he must strive to have 100% of all favor and power accrue only to him, and as such he is constitutionally unable to groom anybody as his successor for fear they will prematurely upstage him before he goes. Once Trump dies, though, the rush to fill the power vacuum will be one of the more entertaining political spectacles we will see in our lifetimes—assuming he does so in the next few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: No, I think he's nearly a lock to get the nomination. He's got a good shot at winning the general election too, but it's far from a lock. I think it's going to be a closely contested race as it usually is and that neither side will accept the result if they lose and there will be four more years of angst either way. I think it depends how well they can rig the election. Because if the election is allowed to be free and fair, I don't think he has a chance—that is, unless Biden dies and someone like Kamala becomes the nominee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 I'm also fearful of what a GOP congress could do in terms of validating the election if it goes against them. If the GOP keeps control... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: I think it depends how well they can rig the election. Because if the election is allowed to be free and fair, I don't think he has a chance—that is, unless Biden dies and someone like Kamala becomes the nominee. He is beating Biden in every single poll I see now and Biden is a very unpopular president. I think trump can beat him in a fair election. I don't understand why you say he can't. It seems like the same kind of thinking that helped him win in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: He is beating Biden in every single poll I see now and Biden is a very unpopular president. I think trump can beat him in a fair election. I don't understand why you say he can't. It seems like the same kind of thinking that helped him win in 2016. I don't think polls, especially taken almost a year out, represent how we will behave on Election Day, and I do think the past couple of presidential elections have shown us that. But I also don't see reasonable people simply moving from voting for Biden in 2020 to voting for Trump next year, or Trump scooping up undecideds. He has shown us every toxic behavior possible, and a substantial majority of people hate that. I think Trump already has practically every voter in his pocket that he's going to get, and I think the Republicans are basically going to have to engage in literal physical restraint of Democratic voters to win a free and fair election next November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Apathy among young voters could play a role. They seem fickle. Gaza and student loans… things like that. Trumps vote totals won’t go up…. But maybe Joe’s doesn’t either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don't think polls, especially taken almost a year out, represent how we will behave on Election Day, and I do think the past couple of presidential elections have shown us that. I think they show enough to tell us that he's got a legitimate chance to win. At no point over the past 7 years has he dropped in popularity (as weak as it may be) for any length of time. I think you overestimate the hatred the general population has for Trump. Most just don't care enough to hate a politician. There are a lot of people who think he's nasty and a goofball, but that he's a good businessman who knows how to run the economy. They view him the same way they did it 2016. Also, Biden is wildly unpopular for good reason or not. The only people who really like Biden are Dem loyalists who would vote D no matter what. Edited December 19, 2023 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 35 minutes ago, oblong said: Apathy among young voters could play a role. They seem fickle. Gaza and student loans… things like that. Trumps vote totals won’t go up…. But maybe Joe’s doesn’t either. Also, climate change is huge. Young people are terrified of climate change and they don't think he's done enough about it. Why would they fear a perceived loss of democracy if we are doomed by our environment anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Also, climate change is huge. Young people are terrified of climate change and they don't think he's done enough about it. Why would they fear a perceived loss of democracy if we are doomed by our environment anyway. Good point. I also think overstatement of Trump hatred and not everybody being in tune with his threats to democracy talk. They figure we survived already and “they are all crooked”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 People need to get their heads out of their asses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: He is beating Biden in every single poll I see now and Biden is a very unpopular president.... That could just be the "trendy" or "cool" pick in the current polls but doesn't reflect voting booth reality. IMO. Basically same thing chas is sayin'.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: That could just be the "trendy" or "cool" pick in the current polls but doesn't reflect voting booth reality. IMO. Basically same thing chas is sayin'.... It seemed like just the opposite was happening in the past where Trump tended to do slightly better in the real election than in the polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 polling is close to useless anymore. everyone measures the same numbers and then has to apply huge normalization factors that swamp any signal in the real data. Bottom line is all the polling is anymore is the pollster's assumptions about who is answering the poll and who is likely to turnout, and they really don't have more than a clue about either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 Colorado Supreme Court says Trump isn't eligible to be president under 14th Amendment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben9753 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, pfife said: Colorado Supreme Court says Trump isn't eligible to be president under 14th Amendment wow. can this go to the Supreme Court or is this a state's issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, ben9753 said: wow. can this go to the Supreme Court or is this a state's issue? From the article below. Trump, who has called the efforts to keep him off the ballot “nonsense” and “election interference,” is likely to try to appeal Tuesday’s Colorado ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. Courts have ruled against similar efforts to get Trump banned from the ballot in Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota. The plaintiffs challenging Trump’s eligibility in Michigan filed an appeal to that state’s high court on Monday. I’m curious on the legal reasoning that a president isn’t “an officer of the US government “. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 I doubt SCOTUS lets that stand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 The way I'm reading this is it pertains to the primary ballot in the state Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 17 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I think they show enough to tell us that he's got a legitimate chance to win. At no point over the past 7 years has he dropped in popularity (as weak as it may be) for any length of time. I think you overestimate the hatred the general population has for Trump. Most just don't care enough to hate a politician. There are a lot of people who think he's nasty and a goofball, but that he's a good businessman who knows how to run the economy. They view him the same way they did it 2016. Also, Biden is wildly unpopular for good reason or not. The only people who really like Biden are Dem loyalists who would vote D no matter what. I think you underestimate the increase in fear of Trump and the Republicans in general since 2016, and you might be whistling past the graveyard believing that since things have always been calm and under control no matter who's in office, that things will always be calm and under control no matter who's in office. Granted, there are a lot of ignorant people who know no more about Trump than they did eight years ago, and who don't care about him because he doesn't directly impact their own lives. To that, two things: (1) there are a lot fewer of those people now than there were in 2016; (2) If they never knew or cared about him, they're not going to vote anyway. I like Biden and I am not a "Dem loyalist", and I have posted here after not voting D. But I can see that he and his administration are doing a great job of getting this country back on track. Everybody can point to this thing or that where they don't like how Biden is handling it, but on balance, he's one of the best presidents of my lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think you underestimate the increase in fear of Trump and the Republicans in general since 2016, and you might be whistling past the graveyard believing that since things have always been calm and under control no matter who's in office, that things will always be calm and under control no matter who's in office. Granted, there are a lot of ignorant people who know no more about Trump than they did eight years ago, and who don't care about him because he doesn't directly impact their own lives. To that, two things: (1) there are a lot fewer of those people now than there were in 2016; (2) If they never knew or cared about him, they're not going to vote anyway. I like Biden and I am not a "Dem loyalist", and I have posted here after not voting D. But I can see that he and his administration are doing a great job of getting this country back on track. Everybody can point to this thing or that where they don't like how Biden is handling it, but on balance, he's one of the best presidents of my lifetime. Most voters don’t study this stuff as much as you or I or others here. Careful of the echo chamber. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think you underestimate the increase in fear of Trump and the Republicans in general since 2016, and you might be whistling past the graveyard believing that since things have always been calm and under control no matter who's in office, that things will always be calm and under control no matter who's in office. People that already feared the Republicans fear them more now. The same thing is happening on the other side. MAGAs are talking about the "fascists in Washington" all the time. They hate them as much as Democrats hate the Republicans. I don't have a problem with Biden in technical terms. The problem is he's very uninspiring and a poor communicator (which I think is an important part of a President's job) and I think that hurts him as a President. People have very low confidence in him whether he deserves it or not. I think the average American views him as weak and that's not a good quality in a President. I don't know if any of that makes him a bad president, but I believe it's going to hurt him in the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 I think the three posts above are all good. They cover different takes on Biden, Trump and the population that are accurate IMO. Sorting out which of the three holds come election time, too soon to know yet. One quibble I have with Lee’s take: I think a significant number of voters are more fearful of Republicans now than in 2016, and Trump and his grip on the party won’t be able to overcome that due to their ratcheting up authoritarian and confrontational stands. That and the multiple legal jeopardy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said: One quibble I have with Lee’s take: I think a significant number of voters are more fearful of Republicans now than in 2016, and Trump and his grip on the party won’t be able to overcome that due to their ratcheting up authoritarian and confrontational stands. That and the multiple legal jeopardy. I hope you are right. I have not seen it in my limited experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 22 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I hope you are right. I have not seen it in my limited experience. We won't really be able to determine if people (in general) have had enough of Trump until the 2024 election ballots are all in and counted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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