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2024 Presidential Election thread


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My guess is Trump would debate, but does not want to debate under the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates. Likely at forums that are more favorable to him (ie. Moderated by by friendlies)

Biden would also debate but would not debate outside the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates. 

Precedent would lie with staying with CPD, but my guess is that Trump is looking for a way to duck debates in that forum that involves shifting blame to Biden for ducking.

Edited by mtutiger
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Biden: "Donald, it's hard to set up a debate when your time is mostly spent in a courtroom. What are you charged with? Lying about sexual assault against a woman? Threatening a state official to overturn election results? Illegal use of funds to pay off a porn star? Attempting to overthrow the Constitution of the United States through violence? Donnie Boy, I think the debate is over already. You're a loser."

That should set off the fireworks.

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The other thing Biden needs to do, is...

 

Immediately after Nikki Haley bows out of the race, is to call her and offer her a position in his new administration (assuming he wins November). Back to the U.N, or whatever, if she wants it. He can campaign on that.

"Trump, I'm adding some of your favorite people to my next Administration. Starting with Nikki Haley, who wants to get back to the U.N. I'm adding her to my team. I am also placing in charge of Women's Rights in America, Stormy Daniels and E. Jean Carroll, names you should be intimately familiar with. All your best friends are now with me."

That should also get the "ball rolling" so to speak. Mostly, Trump going apoplectic.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

My guess is Trump would debate, but does not want to debate under the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates. Likely at forums that are more favorable to him (ie. Moderated by by friendlies)

Biden would also debate but would not debate outside the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates. 

Precedent would lie with staying with CPD, but my guess is that Trump is looking for a way to duck debates in that forum that involves shifting blame to Biden for ducking.

I think debating is grossly over rated and it's time competent managers push back against the idea that it's even an important skill. If I were Biden, my message would be "Talk is cheap and no-one makes it cheaper than my opponent. If there is anything America need less of it's grandstanding on podiums. It's time to judge people on what they have done, not what they talk about doing and fail to do. Here is my record. You can see my opponent's in the court records. Those are all the debating points I'm interested in making."

Edited by gehringer_2
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6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think debating is grossly over rated and it's time competent managers push back against the idea that it's even an important skill. If I were Biden, my message would be "Talk is cheap and no-one makes it cheaper than my opponent. If there is anything America need less of it's grandstanding on podiums. It's time to judge people on what they have done, not what they talk about doing and fail to do. Here is my record. You can see my opponent's in the court records. Those are all the debating points I'm interested in making."

My thesis is that Biden voters need to see him slay the dragon on stage. 

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I believe what a debate can do for Biden is simply have him out there being President.  He was inaugurated during covid.  That restricted a lot of the ability to "be President".  Use the pageantry of the office as an advantage.  That's the draw of being an incumbent.  Flying around in Air Force One and Marine One.  RIding around in The Beast with the long caravan of security.  Hearing Hail to the Chief played as he walks into the room.  Yeah I know they don't do that during a debate itself but Biden needs to get out there showing that he's the President.  He needs to exude the power of the office and show his competence.  

 

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They need to add a round of answering basic questions on government and the constitution. Use some of the citizenship test questions, then spice it up a bit. The candidate giving the wrong answers gets slimed. 

That might make the whole thing worth watching.

Edited by CMRivdogs
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25 minutes ago, romad1 said:

My thesis is that Biden voters need to see him slay the dragon on stage. 

 

11 minutes ago, oblong said:

I believe what a debate can do for Biden is simply have him out there being President.  He was inaugurated during covid.  That restricted a lot of the ability to "be President".  Use the pageantry of the office as an advantage.  That's the draw of being an incumbent.  Flying around in Air Force One and Marine One.  RIding around in The Beast with the long caravan of security.  Hearing Hail to the Chief played as he walks into the room.  Yeah I know they don't do that during a debate itself but Biden needs to get out there showing that he's the President.  He needs to exude the power of the office and show his competence.  

 

I think they have been doing a better job lately of getting Biden out in smaller settings and connecting with voters (his recent appearance in Duluth/Superior being the best example), but retail politics isn't good enough in today's day and age for sure.... 

The decision not to do the Super Bowl interview is puzzling in that respect... I don't think it matters much because the amount of people who will actually be watching the pregame is overblown anyway, but having the video clip that people can watch later matters as well.

Part of it is maybe age, but in general I think he's just getting bad advice from his campaign. Even before Biden became President and started showing age, he was always gaffe prone. Just let him doing his thing and move on... particularly when your opponent is Donald Trump lol

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

I think they have been doing a better job lately of getting Biden out in smaller settings and connecting with voters (his recent appearance in Duluth/Superior being the best example), but retail politics isn't good enough in today's day and age for sure.... 

The decision not to do the Super Bowl interview is puzzling in that respect... I don't think it matters much because the amount of people who will actually be watching the pregame is overblown anyway, but having the video clip that people can watch later matters as well.

Part of it is maybe age, but in general I think he's just getting bad advice from his campaign. Even before Biden became President and started showing age, he was always gaffe prone. Just let him doing his thing and move on... particularly when your opponent is Donald Trump lol

what I think helped put him over the top in 2020 was his empathy and connecting with people directly.

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12 minutes ago, oblong said:

what I think helped put him over the top in 2020 was his empathy and connecting with people directly.

100%. For the campaigns part, I think they are giving him opportunities to succeed in that respect (recent Duluth/Superior, Metro Detroit, Las Vegas) appearances.... I just think they need to mix in a few more speeches / higher profile events. Particularly because it is really hard to break through the other noise that exists out there in smaller settings.

Another example I think about (and was the leading indicator to me that he was going to get the UAW endorsement) was his appearance in Belvidere, IL late last year... it was kinda the perfect venue and setting for him, Shawn Fain and the workers at the Stellantis plant (which will no longer be shuttered due to UAW negotiations) gave him a pretty enthusiastic reception. But despite the fact that it probably earned him a decent amount of media coverage in the Chicagoland and SE Wisconsin media markets, it just completely fell on deaf ears nationally. I remember Nate Silver even musing about how you never see Biden out campaigning literally one day after said event.

As far as his gaffes and age are concerned, he is who he is at this point and they need to just embrace it as opposed to hiding from it. And I suspect that's more on the campaign being risk averse versus Biden himself as the candidate.

Edited by mtutiger
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1 hour ago, oblong said:

I believe what a debate can do for Biden is simply have him out there being President.  He was inaugurated during covid.  That restricted a lot of the ability to "be President".  Use the pageantry of the office as an advantage.  That's the draw of being an incumbent.  Flying around in Air Force One and Marine One.  RIding around in The Beast with the long caravan of security.  Hearing Hail to the Chief played as he walks into the room.  Yeah I know they don't do that during a debate itself but Biden needs to get out there showing that he's the President.  He needs to exude the power of the office and show his competence.  

 

And speak to it.

As often as possible.

As G2 pointed out:

"Here is my record as President...."

That knocks it out of the ballpark for Biden. No debate required.

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IMO... he should NOT debate Trump... but speak of him often, in the same vein as Biden speaking about his own record:

"I don't debate fascists, anarchists, and those charged with criminal behavior. You lose on all 3 counts Donnie Boy (Biden will be more diplomatic in naming him... but I really like "Donnie Boy" - pointing out what a ****ing child his opponent is...). Your record as President was abysmal, specifically...  Your record of crapping all over the Constitution is... in courts of law right now."

Donnie Boy loses with this messaging. No debate required.

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2 hours ago, romad1 said:

My thesis is that Biden voters need to see him slay the dragon on stage. 

I think this is shared sentiment, but in practical terms it can't be done. Trump can't be 'slain' rhetorically because he doesn't admit your reality, so you really can't touch him. You can blow him to Kingdom Come logically and it will just be water off a duck's back, like arguing with a 2 yr old. Biden could probably make him mad enough that he would look bad through conventional eyes, but even some kind of outburst in poor taste on his part won't bother his supporters.

But more fundamentally I don't think debates matter because, I don't think anyone's mind is going to be changed in this cycle. All the dies are cast already. The only thing that matters in this election for the Dems is turn-out and I don't see debates as having any positive effect on that for the Dems. Turnout is about fear (hit Dobbs and 1/6) and ground game much more than debates.

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14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think a growing issue with Biden in a public speaking  settings is that his brain is still faster than his mouth can go anymore, and the result is bad elocution. He needs the discipline to speak slower but that seem unlikely to appear at this point.

As one who had stammering issues when younger that seems to be an underlying issue. Now it's age and sometimes I just can't remember stuff fast enough.

What was interesting, I spent most of my career as a jock or reporter. I knew what I was going to say, no stutter. In casual conversation when I was comfortable I did tend to studder a bit.

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On 2/4/2024 at 10:44 AM, 1984Echoes said:

I'm going to make an odd statement here...

And it's sort of directed at ewsieg...

But I want to make a very specific point, see if you can spot it:

 

If Trump were to, somehow... win the DEMOCRATIC nomination for President (Biden: "I'm tired. I'm going home.")

And Nikki Haley then gains the Republican nominee for President.

 

Then I am voting for Nikki Haley.

I don't care what her platform is. Don't care if it's a conservative Republican platform.

I vote for her.

No.

Hesitation.

Whatsoever.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

I would vote twice for her if I could.   Because that's a win-win.  If you don't get caught voting twice you hurt Trump but if you do get caught you can always say "See, Republicans always cheat"

I would even vote for Rick Pitino over Trump and I HATE Rick Pitino.   I would even vote for Rand Paul over Trump, under one condition...........that his former neighbor gets to kick his ass once a month.  

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On 2/4/2024 at 10:44 AM, 1984Echoes said:

I'm going to make an odd statement here...

And it's sort of directed at ewsieg...

But I want to make a very specific point, see if you can spot it:

 

If Trump were to, somehow... win the DEMOCRATIC nomination for President (Biden: "I'm tired. I'm going home.")

And Nikki Haley then gains the Republican nominee for President.

 

Then I am voting for Nikki Haley.

I don't care what her platform is. Don't care if it's a conservative Republican platform.

I vote for her.

No.

Hesitation.

Whatsoever.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

Nothing odd about that at all.  If Trump was the Democrat nominee and a pile of dog crap swarmed by green flies was the Republican nominee,  I would vote for the dog crap without hesitation.  

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