mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: They don't exist. Republicans always fall in line. Haley in 2016 was one of Trump's biggest critics until she wasn't and working in his cabinet. Cruz, Rudio, Stefaniak, Graham, Mace and the list goes on. Democrats don't fall in line like Republicans unless they love a candidate like Obama. If they didn't exist, Donald Trump probably would have won in 2020. For sure, he would have won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin in 2020, three states where the margin was almost entirely covered by these sorts of voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 7 minutes ago, mtutiger said: If they didn't exist, Donald Trump probably would have won in 2020. For sure, he would have won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin in 2020, three states where the margin was almost entirely covered by these sorts of voters. He got the 2nd most votes in history. Democrats fell in love with Biden. Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were all won by less than 1%. Trump got 400k more votes in Arizona in 2020 than 2016, 400k more in Georgia in 2020 than 2016, and 200k more in Wisconsin in 2020 than 2016. Trump did not lose any voters in 2020. Democrats actually woke the **** up in 2020. Now they're back to their purity contests and virtue signaling. Edited February 26 by Motown Bombers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: He got the 2nd most votes in history. Democrats fell in love with Biden. Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were all won by less than 1%. Trump got 400k more votes in Arizona in 2020 than 2016, 400k more in Georgia in 2020 than 2016, and 200k more in Wisconsin in 2020 than 2016. Trump did not lose any voters in 2020. Democrats actually woke the **** up in 2020. Now they're playing their back to their purity contests and virtue signaling. This just isn't true.... there absolutely are voters who voted for him in 2016 and didn't in 2020. The shift of counties around Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee) and Atlanta (Gwinnett, Cobb, others) toward the left in the suburbs isn't possible if there is zero persuasion. Edited February 26 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just now, Motown Bombers said: Democrats fell in love with Biden. No, they hated Trump and his incompetence and stupidity was fresh in their minds. My fear is they may have forgotten and may now be blaming the current President for everything that is wrong in their world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: This runs back to the polling issue as well. I didn't see word one in the NYT or WaPo about the polling miss in SC. Now it's true that Haley not being able to win her own state is the bigger immediate story, and Trump's margin of victory on one level made the polling irrelevant. Yet it's Trump's continuing strength in national polling that is the bigger overall story of the election and if that is illusory, that is potentially much bigger story overall than Haley and SC. But it lies exactly in the black hole of weakness in American journalism. The polling story is complex, confusing, highly technical and even involves numbers. To the extent there was discussion of it on Twitter, it seemed to be more explaining it away. For my mind though, a pseudo-incumbent / de facto party leader only drawing 59% is "four siren emoji" material, even in an open primary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Republicans always fall in line One reason is because GOP campaign money is corporate and thus more hard headed about not risking it on underdogs. For instance after Haley's weak showing at home, Koch is dropping their support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 7 minutes ago, mtutiger said: This just isn't true.... there absolutely are voters who voted for him in 2016 and didn't in 2020. The shift of counties around Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee) and Atlanta (Gwinnett, Cobb, others) toward the left in the suburbs isn't possible if there is zero persuasion. If it isn't true than he gained voters. For every voter he lost he gained two then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: No, they hated Trump and his incompetence and stupidity was fresh in their minds. My fear is they may have forgotten and may now be blaming the current President for everything that is wrong in their world. It's definitely hard to keep the American voter engaged, though Trump at least is giving the Dems as much help as they should need with the continuing stream of outrageous statements. Of course let's not forget the other side. In the last 4 years the economy has improved more for blue collars than any other part of the economy. They might not be willing to thank Biden for it, but that is letting air out of voter motivation to get to the polls in that segment of the economy, and that could hurt Trump big time in terms of red voter apathy - though I've yet to hear it talked about. TBH, all the talk about changing minds is probably too much attention to the minor event, Recent US elections are all about which side turns out. I think maybe the better way to frame the 'uncommitted' issue is less whether that voter changes their mind to 'come home' to Biden as much as how does that vote alter their psychological mindset for voting in the general? Are you more likely to feel you need to go vote for Biden after not supporting him when you could have, or do you give yourself a pass because voting in the general happens to be inconvenient that day and you already did your bit for Biden once already? I don't know the answers but those may be the more important kinds of questions. Edited February 26 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Peter Meijer was excommunicated from the Republican party and voted to impeach Trump and he is still on team Trump. They always come around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: If it isn't true than he gained voters. For every voter he lost he gained two then. I mean, he did gain voters. (See Miami-Dade Co.) Doesn't really change my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Peter Meijer was excommunicated from the Republican party and voted to impeach Trump and he is still on team Trump. They always come around. It's been discussed here that right now there is so much cultural baggage/personal identity tied up for republicans in being republican that it's sort of unprecedented how difficult it is to pry a repub away from their party. At some point that should regress to a more historical norm, but who knows when the fever will start to break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's definitely hard to keep the American voter engaged, though Trump at least is giving the Dems as much help as they should need with the continuing stream of outrageous statements. Of course let's not forget the other side. In the last 4 years the economy has improved more for blue collars than any other part of the economy. They might not be willing to thank Biden for it, but that is letting air out of voter motivation to get to the polls in that segment of the economy, and that could hurt Trump big time in terms of red voter apathy - though I've yet to hear it talked about. There definitely seems to be a built-in assumption that voter turnout among the Trump base will be as juiced as 2020, at least in the media space, and that's definitely an open-ended question at this point IMO. To be honest, I'd be surprised if turnout wasn't down based on how low-energy this contest seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's definitely hard to keep the American voter engaged, though Trump at least is giving the Dems as much help as they should need with the continuing stream of outrageous statements. Of course let's not forget the other side. In the last 4 years the economy has improved more for blue collars than any other part of the economy. They might not be willing to thank Biden for it, but that is letting air out of voter motivation to get to the polls in that segment of the economy, and that could hurt Trump big time in terms of red voter apathy - though I've yet to hear it talked about. TBH, all the talk about changing minds is probably too much attention to the minor event, Recent US elections are all about which side turns out. I think maybe the better way to frame the 'uncommitted' issue is less whether that voter changes their mind to 'come home' to Biden as much as how does that vote alter their psychological mindset for voting in the general? Are you more likely to feel you need to go vote for Biden after not supporting him when you could have, or do you give yourself a pass because voting in the general happens to be inconvenient that day and you already did your bit for Biden once already? I don't know the answers but those may be the more important questions. The Bernie Bros didn't turn out in 2016. Hillary didn't get the full Obama coalition because they didn't fall in love with her. Trump kept more of the Romney voters. They stayed more loyal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I think "dementia don" is starting to become absorbed by the media as a thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: There definitely seems to be a built-in assumption that voter turnout among the Trump base will be as juiced as 2020, at least in the media space, and that's definitely an open-ended question at this point IMO. To be honest, I'd be surprised if turnout wasn't down based on how low-energy this contest seems. I think overall turnout will be down like 2016. Trump kept close to Romney levels but Hillary lost a lot of Obama supporters. They became Bernie Bros. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I think overall turnout will be down like 2016. Trump kept close to Romney levels but Hillary lost a lot of Obama supporters. They became Bernie Bros. But the other factor here is not to underestimate American women. They are still mad as heII over Dobbs and the Alabama decision has just pored huge fuel on an already raging fire there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: I don't doubt she will. What I'm saying is more of that Haley vote will come around on Trump in November than the uncommitted vote will come around on Biden. We saw it in 2016. This is not correct. But... Let's dissect this just a teensy bit: If you're talking volume, you will be correct. If you're talking rate, ixne. So... Haley is taking roughly 40% of the Republican Party and/or right-leaning Indies. 40%. Against Trump. Trump got 74+ million votes in 2020? That's 30 million that are dead set against this scumbag. Will some go against their word and come back to Trump, as you say? Most assuredly. But if half DON'T... Trump just lost 15 million votes. How many "statement" votes against Biden? 1 million? 90% of those will go back to Biden in November. So... by volume, you're correct: 15 million anti-Trump primary voters (using 50% as a WAG) will go back to Trump, versus "only" 900,000 going back to Biden. But by Percent or Rate? Trump has LOST the middle-to-right Indies, LOST suburban moms, LOST a certain percentage of moderate Republicans, at a much higher rate than Biden will EVER lose Dems. Here's an article on the crap chances Trump gets elected in November but the Media's not really covering: https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trumps-dominating-gop-primary-140005226.html Opinion Donald Trump's dominating GOP primary performance doesn't add up Heather Digby Parton Mon, February 26, 2024 As you can see, it's just an opinion. But read the last paragraph, particularly this sentence: "She's (Haley has) spent the last year with fellow Republicans and Independents who are telling her they will never vote for Trump again." These are Republicans, TELLING a Republican: I hate Trump and will never vote for him again. Let's go back to volume now. 2020 Trump gets 74 mill. Less 15 mill that he has LOST. Has he gained anywhere? Maybe with non-white men who are Macho Men. Add back 1 mill. He's at 60 mill votes. Biden got 81.3 mill votes in 2020? Add 10 mill. That's 91.5 mill to 60 mill. Bottom Line: Biden is going to kick Trump's ass. By Volume... OR by Rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: ... In general, there's a real imbalance in how Trump's negatives or issues get framed in media versus Biden's.... as much as people talk about liberal media bias, the coverage of this race thus far makes Trump seem like a much stronger candidate that he actually is. THAT should scare liberal and moderate voters to the polls in VAST NUMBERS come November. The media just may be dumb... like a fox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18 minutes ago, romad1 said: I think "dementia don" is starting to become absorbed by the media as a thing. Drudge has been pushing that for awhile now. I know many on the left hated the 'free campaign ads' of him doing his stump speech last time around, but there definitely is a decline with him as well. I don't see how he can run on Biden being too old and then speak gibberish and independents will just go along with it and vote for him anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: THAT should scare liberal and moderate voters to the polls in VAST NUMBERS come November. The media just may be dumb... like a fox. I'm sure all the people voting uncommitted will help with the coverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 23 minutes ago, ewsieg said: Drudge has been pushing that for awhile now. I know many on the left hated the 'free campaign ads' of him doing his stump speech last time around, but there definitely is a decline with him as well. I don't see how he can run on Biden being too old and then speak gibberish and independents will just go along with it and vote for him anyway. He objectively looked terrible during his speech last week before the National Religious Broadcasters Convention, at least in the clips I saw.... lots of slurring, bags under his eyes, exhausted looking. Edited February 26 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Like I said, Republicans will come around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: He objectively looked terrible during his speech last week before the National Religious Broadcasters Convention, at least in the clips I saw.... lots of slurring, bags under his eyes, exhausted looking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 lol @ Klanpain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I've noticed the message is completely different from Trump vs 2016. Trump offered simple solutions to complex problems like build a wall to stop immigrations or tariffs to bring back manufacturing jobs. Now his rallies are just rants of him airing grievances and how poorly he's being treated. In 2016 he had a few politically savvy people but they are gone now and it shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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