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2024 Presidential Election thread


pfife

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7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I've noticed the message is completely different from Trump vs 2016. Trump offered simple solutions to complex problems like build a wall to stop immigrations or tariffs to bring back manufacturing jobs. Now his rallies are just rants of him airing grievances and how poorly he's being treated. In 2016 he had a few politically savvy people but they are gone now and it shows.  

that's an interesting observation. I would say that if it's true that people are going to Trump rallies today more to be entertained by crazy uncle than to hear their own political grievances supported, that is not a good sign for voter motivation levels on the red side.

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50 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Like I said, Republicans will come around.

 

John Sununu is the one I've been waiting for.  He's still on his kick that Trump won't be the nominee, thus allowing him to say he'll support the GOP nominee, but isn't supporting Trump.

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"Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan governor, pushed back on calls to not vote for Joe Biden over his handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict, saying on Sunday that could help Trump get re-elected.

“It’s important not to lose sight of the fact that any vote that’s not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term,” she said on Sunday during an interview on CNN’s State of the Union. "

Michigan governor says not voting for Biden over Gaza war ‘supports second Trump term’ | Michigan | The Guardian

She gets it and has more leadership than these tankie Dems we have in the house. 

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's definitely hard to keep the American voter engaged, though Trump at least is giving the Dems as much help as they should need with the continuing stream of outrageous statements. 

Of course let's not forget the other side. In the last 4 years the economy has improved more for blue collars than any other part of the economy. They might not be willing to thank Biden for it, but that is letting air out of voter motivation to get to the polls in that segment of the economy, and that could hurt Trump big time in terms of red voter apathy - though I've yet to hear it talked about.

TBH, all the talk about changing minds is probably too much attention to the minor event, Recent US elections are all about which side turns out. I think maybe the better way to frame the 'uncommitted' issue is less whether that voter changes their mind to 'come home' to Biden as much as how does that vote alter their psychological mindset for voting in the general? Are you more likely to feel you need to go vote for Biden after not supporting him when you could have, or do you give yourself a pass because voting in the general happens to be inconvenient that day and you already did your bit for Biden once already? I don't know the answers but those may be the more important kinds of questions.

Mail-in voting has made a big difference in participation and this is of course beneficial Biden (the real reason the right hates mail-in voting).  I would guess this is being made more difficult in some states this time around, although I could be wrong about that.  

Edited by Tiger337
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3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

 

In general, there's a real imbalance in how Trump's negatives or issues get framed in media versus Biden's.... as much as people talk about liberal media bias, the coverage of this race thus far makes Trump seem like a much stronger candidate that he actually is.

The media has been doing Trump a huge favor by broadcasting every word he has said or tweeted for the last 8 years.  This keeps him in the news constantly and gives him legitimacy among the masses.  Sure most of it is crazy talk, but if they see him in the the media every day, he can't be that bad of a guy, can't be a psychopath, right?    The media needs him and will do what it can to get him re-elected.  

Edited by Tiger337
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Just now, romad1 said:

He and the Parkland shooting dad have an effort to join both sides of the aisle to combat Trump and the attacks on democracy from Trumpists. 

I'm done with the left. Biden has given them what they want and they still abandoned him. Time to convert some moderate Republicans. 

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6 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

It always amuses me when states like Wyoming are like we want to break away from the US. Bitch you need to US more than the US needs you. There are probably only 2-3 states that could stand alone as countries. California and probably Texas and New York. 

If it's economics you're talking about, then you are wildly underestimating the power of each and every state in the Union. There are 213 nations whose GDP is measured by entities such as the IMF, World Bank, and United Nations. If every state's economy were a nation unto itself, every single state, bar none, would be in the Top 100 worldwide. Even last-place Vermont would rank just ahead of #99 Estonia and just behind #98 Paraguay.

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4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Not what I would have expected, thought I'm sure more Rs will vote on E Day

I genuinely don't think a lot of people here know they can do early in person voting yet

I'm also banking on it being a super fast effort to vote tomorrow whihc makes it less pressing to go early

Edited by pfife
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4 hours ago, chasfh said:

If it's economics you're talking about, then you are wildly underestimating the power of each and every state in the Union. There are 213 nations whose GDP is measured by entities such as the IMF, World Bank, and United Nations. If every state's economy were a nation unto itself, every single state, bar none, would be in the Top 100 worldwide. Even last-place Vermont would rank just ahead of #99 Estonia and just behind #98 Paraguay.

all that said, Wyoming or any other break away state will suffer as the UK has under Brexit by leaving an economic union.

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9 hours ago, pfife said:

I genuinely don't think a lot of people here know they can do early in person voting yet

I'm also banking on it being a super fast effort to vote tomorrow whihc makes it less pressing to go early

My comment was more about breakdown - would have expected more R votes than D votes, although I'm sure that will change with in person voting today

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All I know is that I'm not looking forward to the media discourse that's going to follow tonight over "uncommitted" and parsing what counts as a success or not.

Especially knowing that Haley is probably going to get over 30% and the same people doing the parsing will all say that's NBD and none of it matters and whatnot.

Edited by mtutiger
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