Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 26 minutes ago, GoBlue23 said: Biden lost American Samoa to a dude I've never heard of. Who the hell is Jason Palmer? Third round draft pick out of Vanderbilt. Good power potential. Some people had him going in the second round. Drafted as a SS, but he's too big for the position and will probably end up at 3B. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Another weak day for the former president struggling to stay above 70% in many states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Looking like Adam Schiff is going to be the new senator from California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Haley should endorse Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 People don’t think about elections until they actually happen and they’re required to pull levers. It’s mostly rabid partisans showing up for polls these days, because polling is no longer a reliable indicator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, romad1 said: Haley should endorse Biden. I have no idea what she does, but whatever she does, I expect it to be kinda disappointing lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 9 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I have no idea what she does, but whatever she does, I expect it to be kinda disappointing lol I heard she's a fun date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 13 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Is that Republicans or is it Democrats and Independents voting in the Republican primary? An entire RED state is going to flip BLUE for Biden in November because of Never-Trumpers. My prediction: Utah flips and votes Biden. Book it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 If I were advising her I would tell her to be patient and wait out the 4 years. If Trump wins, she's toast (Aren't we all?) If Biden wins then she's still there as an option in 2028. I don't htink someone who's pulling 30-45% of the primary vote against a former POTUS needs to grovel or "go away". Trump is such a unique thing that you can't use old rules to determine what to do. All these politicians endorsing Trump are doing it out of self preservation and a wink and nod to each other as to the reason why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 10 hours ago, GoBlue23 said: Biden lost American Samoa to a dude I've never heard of. Who the hell is Jason Palmer? Rich Dem who walked all over Samoa making promises... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 35 minutes ago, chasfh said: People don’t think about elections until they actually happen and they’re required to pull levers. It’s mostly rabid partisans showing up for polls these days, because polling is no longer a reliable indicator. Nate Cohn with another dive into polling issue in the Times. An interesting outcome he is seeing is that there is a split between web polling and phone polling and it tracks the age of the voter. Obviously pollsters don't like web polling because the sample self-selects, but ignoring the actual outcomes, Cohn says that in web polling he doesn't see any of the supposed drop of in Biden's support among <30-35 voters, that is only showing up in phone polls. I think it's just another bit of evidence that beginning with Millennials, phone polling now probably generates just as self-selected a sample as a web poll because the young generations do not have the same predisposition to answer their phone just because it rings that much of the older generations are still conditioned with. No longer being able to get a reasonably unbiased sample by just ringing phones at random is the 700 gorilla in the corner for the future of political polling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: An entire RED state is going to flip BLUE for Biden in November because of Never-Trumpers. My prediction: Utah flips and votes Biden. Book it! That's bold. Red states I would have flipping before Utah in no particular order: North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Montana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I will say, Utah is an interesting state. The Salt Lake City area continues to grow and turn blue. I could see Utah eventually becoming Colorado but I don't think that is close right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I also wonder how the unavoidably obvious shrinkage of the GS Lake intersects with GOP climate denialism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I will say, Utah is an interesting state. The Salt Lake City area continues to grow and turn blue. I could see Utah eventually becoming Colorado but I don't think that is close right now. No.. they're not turning into Colorado. They'll stay red... This is just pure "we're red, but we're also Mormon and we hate bullies/ fascism/ Trump", so it's a one-off this year. That's my prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: No.. they're not turning into Colorado. They'll stay red... This is just pure "we're red, but we're also Mormon and we hate bullies/ fascism/ Trump", so it's a one-off this year. That's my prediction. Mormons are the reddest of red. I know this because my brother is Mormon. Romney is a politician more than a Morman cultist you can't use him as an example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) 6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: but we're also Mormon Mormon's are under conflicting forces. The are generally on the side of the cultural conservatism of the GOP, but being a minority sect that has been considered heretical by other Christian groups in the past, they are also uniquely sensitive to 1st amendment establishment issues and should also be/are concerned about the threat of evangelical Christian nationalism. Edited March 6 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: That's bold. Red states I would have flipping before Utah in no particular order: North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Montana I believe NC, and possibly even Iowa and Montana, have voted blue before... so on a normalized basis, yes. Florida too... but I think they are getting heavy white-retirees from the mid west so it appears they are turning redder the past 20 or so years... I would think they'd also be getting heavy Jersey/ New York retirees and non-Cuban Hispanics to offset that but... I don't know they they are turning so red-fascist in that state...? That makes Texas, Florida, Alaska & Ohio very difficult to turn blue. But I'm guessing this is going to be the "Year of the Never-Trumper Wave" so we'll see how much of an impact that has on all the November races. Biden, Senator & Reps, state races... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Mormons are the reddest of red. I know this because my brother is Mormon. Romney is a politician more than a Morman cultist you can't use him as an example. Right, so the state stays red... in a normal year. I believe their Trump-hate is pretty crazy high also though, because they are Mormon. So this year, and this year only, the state goes blue and Biden wins there. Everything else in the state stays red... So I'm just calling this as a one-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Mormon's are under conflicting forces. The are generally on the side of the cultural conservatism of the GOP, but being a minority sect that has been considered heretical by other Christian groups in the past, they are also uniquely sensitive to 1st amendment establishment issues and should also be/are concerned about the threat of evangelical Christian nationalism. This is interesting and true. I don't know if it is decisive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said: I believe NC, and possibly even Iowa and Montana, have voted blue before... so on a normalized basis, yes. Florida too... but I think they are getting heavy white-retirees from the mid west so it appears they are turning redder the past 20 or so years... I would think they'd also be getting heavy Jersey/ New York retirees and non-Cuban Hispanics to offset that but... I don't know they they are turning so red-fascist in that state...? That makes Texas, Florida, Alaska & Ohio very difficult to turn blue. But I'm guessing this is going to be the "Year of the Never-Trumper Wave" so we'll see how much of an impact that has on all the November races. Biden, Senator & Reps, state races... Don't sleep on Alaska. Biden won't win it this election, but every election since 2000 it has gotten bluer. They elected a Democrat to their at-large congressional district who is popular. They have the most moderate Republican in the senate. It's not worth going up there for 3 electoral votes but I think it's a state that Dems should make a play for the non Murkowski senate seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just as a hint: Right now: Biden has 53,744 votes in Utah. Trump has 42,580 The swing vote...? Haley has 31,384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) 36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Nate Cohn with another dive into polling issue in the Times. An interesting outcome he is seeing is that there is a split between web polling and phone polling and it tracks the age of the voter. Obviously pollsters don't like web polling because the sample self-selects, but ignoring the actual outcomes, Cohn says that in web polling he doesn't see any of the supposed drop of in Biden's support among <30-35 voters, that is only showing up in phone polls. Not sure if he mentioned it in his piece (I don't subscribe, so behind paywall), but isn't the other 800 lb gorilla in the room here the fact that the last election cycle took place in the middle of a pandemic where, due to a bunch of people being at home, response rates (by age and partisanship) may have been much different in that cycle as well? I suspect that might explain a lot of how these polls show Biden/Dems doing significantly better with older voters and worse with younger and minority voters.... pollsters are likely reaching those high propensity older voters (who are probably more blue than the median older voter) a lot more easily and filling out the younger/minority pool (who are much harder to reach) l with whatever they can find. Edited March 6 by mtutiger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 12 hours ago, mtutiger said: If there's probably one state that I'm taking a little more seriously after what I've seen so far, it's North Carolina.... really underwhelming performance for Trump from the returns, particularly in suburban Charlotte, and they nominated an absolute nutcase (who dabbles in stuff like Holocaust denial) as their Gubernatorial candidate For some reason I've been bombarded with texts from candidates from NC, especially the Trump wannabe running for governor (?). I have no clue how they've gotten my information and decided I was a Republican. Probably the same fools that think I have property to sell in Tennessee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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