oblong Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I think there's room post Trump for the likes of Cheney/Kinzinger/Flake/Haley in the GOP. Trump has a hold on the party, as long as he is the top dog. If he loses in 2024 then that's it. He's done. He has the trials to contend it and the GOP can finally move on. The lackeys like Cruz and Graham know it's a fraud. Trump losing will ease the pressure. That's why Haley is smart to take the high road and be the option post Trump. A 2028 without Trump or Biden is a lot different than what we have today. I dont think Haley needs Donald Trump at all. She would beat Biden in my opinion head to head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Counterpoint being that there have been plenty of RINO politicos who ended up out of work on account of Trump as well (Cheney, Kinzinger, Flake, Corker, etc.). To me, the biggest issue is that Haley is currently not in office, and in terms of an elected job, there is literally zero chance she can win a GOP primary for anything after this run, at least so long as Trump is the main driver of this GOP. An endorsement will not change that. And for many of the ones who did roll over, they *were* in office and it was the fear of a GOP primary during their next cycle.... that just does not apply to her. Theoretically she could negotiate a job in a future Trump administration, but we have a disagreement on how likely that could even be anyway. So, at least in my mind, I don't know exactly what an endorsement gets her beyond standing by her statement today The difference between Cheney, Kinzinger, Flake, and Corker is that they broke hard and with finality from Trump, and Nikki has not, or at least not yet. Nikki may be a woman, but when it comes to Trump, she is no Liz Cheney. I grant that Trump might yet destroy her completely, as you appear to predict, and you don't have to grant at all that there's any chance that she comes back to Trump and he gives her some role in his administration. But just because you don't, that doesn't mean it can't happen. I think it could, I think she's trying, I bet Trump is at least listening, and who knows what will finally come from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) From today's JVL This was written before South Carolina... Quote Trump is finishing a primary campaign that was mostly a coronation. His rivals barely criticized him and when they did, they made sure to stay away from his actual electoral vulnerabilities. This period will culminate with a series of blowout victories for Trump: He will win Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican, ever. He will win New Hampshire. He will beat Nikki Haley in her home state by more than 20 points.1 He will win every single primary and caucus. And this juggernaut of winning will make Trump seem like a colossus. But that view is likely to be misleading, because unlike every other contested primary in the modern era, Trump will arrive at the nomination in a pre-campaign state where he has yet to take a punch. And the reality is this: Do you think Republican voters are likely to become more comfortable with Trump the more they see of him over the next 10 months? I do not. Historically, Trump’s approval numbers have moved inversely to the magnitude of his public presence. Edited March 6 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, chasfh said: The difference between Cheney, Kinzinger, Flake, and Corker is that they broke hard and with finality from Trump, and Nikki has not, or at least not yet. Nikki may be a woman, but when it comes to Trump, she is no Liz Cheney. I grant that Trump might yet destroy her completely, as you appear to predict, and you don't have to grant at all that there's any chance that she comes back to Trump and he gives her some role in his administration. But just because you don't, that doesn't mean it can't happen. I think it could, I think she's trying, I bet Trump is at least listening, and who knows what will finally come from that. I could be proven wrong, or maybe it's likely that I am, but her statement today was interesting because it forwent an endorsement in favor of putting the onus on Trump to make a compelling pitch to her supporters, which he will likely need in an election in order to win. Haley isn't dumb, she knows that pitch isn't coming. The principal himself has said as much in recent days. It just looks like a longer play (ie. beyond 2024) versus something that she's trying to extract today. But we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, CMRivdogs said: From today's JVL This was written before South Carolina... With an addendum today.. Quote Trump is about to take fire for the first time since 2020 and I expect his numbers to behave the way they have always behaved when Americans focus on him. The question isn’t whether or not they’ll drop. It’s whether or not they’ll drop far enough, fast enough, to prevent him from taking power again. Most voters don't start paying attention until around Labor Day...but Democrats need to start hammering him starting today, while inviting those not sold on Trump into the fold. Start a major fact check campaign. Hit him hard on his indictments. Go hard on women's rights on rights of immigrants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ronz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 45 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why didn't he win in a landslide in either of the past two elections? Those who opposed him before are either not going to vote this time or are now going to vote for him. Of course, I hope I am wrong about all of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Another variable. Trump will need to sell $1B in NY assets to pay off the $500m in assets he owes the NY court. That's because of the tax hit on the gains from those properties. The judge won't go after assets in NJ or Florida because why should he if he doesn't have to. The bills are coming due. He may be trying to leverage people like Elon Musk or the Chinese Falun Gong people but they prob won't spend that much cash to help him out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, The Ronz said: Those who opposed him before are either not going to vote this time or are now going to vote for him. Of course, I hope I am wrong about all of this. My Trumpy brother in law...(I assume he voted for Trump twice, unless there was a VaTech football or basketball game on tv) It's a choice between crazy or senile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Are you absolutely certain that you will feel this way eight months from now, and that nothing along the way can change your mind? Good question. I asked myself that question earlier today. My answer is, never say never. However, I just don’t foresee things changing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 45 minutes ago, oblong said: I think there's room post Trump for the likes of Cheney/Kinzinger/Flake/Haley in the GOP. Trump has a hold on the party, as long as he is the top dog. If he loses in 2024 then that's it. He's done. He has the trials to contend it and the GOP can finally move on. The lackeys like Cruz and Graham know it's a fraud. Trump losing will ease the pressure. That's why Haley is smart to take the high road and be the option post Trump. A 2028 without Trump or Biden is a lot different than what we have today. I dont think Haley needs Donald Trump at all. She would beat Biden in my opinion head to head. I disagree here and think most on the right and the Republican Party itself are too far gone. You aren't going to go from believing now that vaccines have built in 5G microchips, Hillary Clinton molested children in a pizza parlor, immigrants are vermin, and that LGBTQ+ people are a moral threat to society to not believing this by 2028. All these people will still hold all those beliefs four years from now and will support candidates who share those beliefs. The Republican Party is gone and it isn't coming back. After Donald Trump in 2028 it will potentially be Don Jr., Eric, or an adjacent MAGA person leading the way in the party. The days on the Gipper, George H.W. Bush, **** Cheney, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and company are over and are not returning. This is now firmly the party of MAGA-minded individuals like the Trump family, Steve Bannon, Ben Shapiro, Nick Fuentes, MTG, Matt Gaetz, Loren Bobert, Josh Hawley, and the like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 52 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: From today's JVL This was written before South Carolina... Yeah, for as much attention as Joe Biden has gotten about media availability, it's really been striking how much Trump has really avoided debates or interviews with outlets outside of the conservative sphere. It does become a lot harder to avoid those settings starting today, one would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 44 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: I will say life was better for us March 6, 2020. That answer will change if you move forward a couple weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: Wow. Yes, crazy. Although that may be defensive more than anything. I'm guessing they feel a bit like the State of Israel surrounded by people who don't really like them. Obviously not as dire as Israel... I'm just sayin'... They live in Austin, TX to be fair the are being overrun by Libs.... 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 11 minutes ago, Edman85 said: I will say life was better for us March 6, 2020. That answer will change if you move forward a couple weeks. True, but it was even better on March 6, 2016. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 27 minutes ago, Edman85 said: I will say life was better for us March 6, 2020. That answer will change if you move forward a couple weeks. I went back to my sent items folder for that week. Looks like we went home on the 13th. I have an email to my boss on the 16th, a Monday, asking if we could get into the building b/c I wanted my docking station and I was able to "snag" a couple of monitors. Officially people were allowed 1, but you know...... I remember a few weeks later we were told to go get the office chairs if we wanted them and all of the desks had markings on them to indicate they were "deep cleaned", as if we would be back in a few weeks. Then in July we were told to clear out all of our personal belongings we had left. Now the building is being demolished. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: My Trumpy brother in law...(I assume he voted for Trump twice, unless there was a VaTech football or basketball game on tv) It's a choice between crazy or senile And with Trump he gets both! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: So funny because some Trumpy Newsweek writer was on Maher angrily defending Trump and barking at him, do you really think you’re better off now than you were four years ago? And Maher says well four years ago we were in a pandemic, and she says, I **** you not: “I mean 2018, are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The Trumpy Newsweek writer might or might not be actually stupid, but she sure was lazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: True, but it was even better on March 6, 2016. Yeah, we can debate whether he's the cause or a symptom (probably more the latter), but in terms of societal cohesion, we were so much better off before Trump descended from that escalator. Everyone knows it, even if they won't openly admit it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I disagree here and think most on the right and the Republican Party itself are too far gone. You aren't going to go from believing now that vaccines have built in 5G microchips, Hillary Clinton molested children in a pizza parlor, immigrants are vermin, and that LGBTQ+ people are a moral threat to society to not believing this by 2028. All these people will still hold all those beliefs four years from now and will support candidates who share those beliefs. The Republican Party is gone and it isn't coming back. After Donald Trump in 2028 it will potentially be Don Jr., Eric, or an adjacent MAGA person leading the way in the party. The days on the Gipper, George H.W. Bush, **** Cheney, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and company are over and are not returning. This is now firmly the party of MAGA-minded individuals like the Trump family, Steve Bannon, Ben Shapiro, Nick Fuentes, MTG, Matt Gaetz, Loren Bobert, Josh Hawley, and the like. That’s fine, we can believe that the Republican Party are becoming too far gone and that it will be 100% MAGA and that it’s never coming back, but that doesn’t mean all that relentless fire-breathing is going to start winning votes from moderates all of a sudden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, oblong said: I went back to my sent items folder for that week. Looks like we went home on the 13th. I have an email to my boss on the 16th, a Monday, asking if we could get into the building b/c I wanted my docking station and I was able to "snag" a couple of monitors. Officially people were allowed 1, but you know...... I remember a few weeks later we were told to go get the office chairs if we wanted them and all of the desks had markings on them to indicate they were "deep cleaned", as if we would be back in a few weeks. Then in July we were told to clear out all of our personal belongings we had left. Now the building is being demolished. I got a text from a colleague on March 16 reaming me for telling an employee of his who shared a supervisor with me that we were good to go home. You will never believe that colleague's vaccination status. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: I will say life was better for us March 6, 2020. That answer will change if you move forward a couple weeks. Not for me. I make over 50% more now annually than I did in 2020. Portfolio is ridiculous in a good way, now compared to then too. OTOH, My family is much more fractured than it was then though and it's directly related to politics so that sucks. And I really wish Biden would have fixed the Trump Dam Breakages that happened in mid-Michigan in May 2020 and destroyed my hometown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 10 minutes ago, pfife said: Not for me. I make over 50% more now annually than I did in 2020. Portfolio is ridiculous in a good way, now compared to then too. Ok Stan. 😃 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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