2024 Presidential Election thread

[MichiganCardinal]

40 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Which leads again to the question of, what's life after Donald like for the GOP?

Biden, fairly or unfairly, gets a lot more scrutiny for his age, but Trump is 78 and in worse health (at least in all likelihood). 

I don't think they are prepared for that situation at all. All they've known since early 2016 has been kissing the ring and it's poisoned the entire party.

It's not exactly imminent either. If Biden wins in November for instance, I wouldn't count out Trump from running again in 2028. He would only be five months older than Biden is now. These rallies and his cult is all he's known for the last nine years now and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the nomination again, even if it's from prison. He likely sees the presidency as his only sure-fire way to stay out of prison.

And I'm not holding my breath waiting for the GOP to say "okay Donald, time to pass over the reigns" -- the time for that was January 7th, 2021.

[Motown Bombers]

As long as Trump isn't dead or in prison, he will try to run in 2028. Even if he wins in 2024. 

[MichiganCardinal]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

As long as Trump isn't dead or in prison, he will try to run in 2028. Even if he wins in 2024. 

FTFY

[LaceyLou]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Am I the only one who is wondering how someone born and raised and lived their entire life in Alabama doesn't have an accent? 

Is she a fundamentalist? Women in fundie groups are actually taught to talk like this. 

 

 

[LaceyLou]

3 hours ago, GoBlue23 said:

 

I was thinking Stepford Wives.

[Motown Bombers]

I feel like this was filmed in the kitchen section of Lowes. 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Am I the only one who is wondering how someone born and raised and lived their entire life in Alabama doesn't have an accent? 

It's a practiced thing. It's called the Fundy woman voice. She's been taught to speak like a good submissive wife and mother

Edited March 8 by CMRivdogs

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Am I the only one who is wondering how someone born and raised and lived their entire life in Alabama doesn't have an accent? 

Because the housewife thing is just schtick.  She has most likely been cultivating her accent for polics for years, much like Trump.  

[oblong]

28 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

It's a practiced thing. It's called the Fundy woman voice. She's been taught to speak like a good submissive wife and mother

Yes.  Watch that show on Prime about the Duggars and their church. Thy explain it well.  The women have to also look gazingly at their men. 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

.... If Biden wins in November for instance, I wouldn't count out Trump from running again in 2028...

The death of Trump's political career is November, 2024.

To whit:

1) Republicans are going to get wiped out. And not just Trump. Strong economy. IVF. Roe v Wade. Playing around with the border instead of fixing the border. Boot-licking Vladimir Putin and Russia. Trump's in-your-face fascism. And not least: Dark Brandon has been unleashed. I predict major disheartened red base and motivated blue, and right-leaning Indies and suburban moms wiping out a wide swathe of Republicans... even with the gerrymandering.

2) What does that make Trump? A LOSER. Not just once, but 3 times over and losing in the courts too.

3) That's called a sinking ship. After the November elections, the rats will abandon the sinking ship.

 

That's the end of Trump.

[MichiganCardinal]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

The death of Trump's political career is November, 2024.

To whit:

1) Republicans are going to get wiped out. And not just Trump. Strong economy. IVF. Roe v Wade. Playing around with the border instead of fixing the border. Boot-licking Vladimir Putin and Russia. Trump's in-your-face fascism. And not least: Dark Brandon has been unleashed. I predict major disheartened red base and motivated blue, and right-leaning Indies and suburban moms wiping out a wide swathe of Republicans... even with the gerrymandering.

2) What does that make Trump? A LOSER. Not just once, but 3 times over and losing in the courts too.

3) That's called a sinking ship. After the November elections, the rats will abandon the sinking ship.

 

That's the end of Trump.

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November. I thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016, and that turned out to be the result of a significant underestimation on my part of the impact that an impassioned base like Trump's can muster.

Biden is just so vanilla. His strongest appeal to a great number of voters is that he's not Trump. Which worked out in 2020 when people were ready for that daily god-awful reality show to get cancelled. Many Dems would have voted for any Republican candidate dating back to Reagan, just to be rid of the orange slob... I agree that when Biden exhibits his signature personality, he can be a likable, good to great candidate. But he just doesn't inspire voter turnout in the way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders (to a certain extent) did.

Now that Trump has not been in the daily limelight (at least not as someone who actually matters) for a while now though, it's easy for people to forget. Not a lot of people, but enough? Maybe.

I think it's going to come down to Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, just like 2016 and 2020. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Trump flip Michigan based at least partially off Biden's Israel/Palestine response. Maybe Georgia too just based on how close it was there, combined with their legislator toying with the election laws. From there, off 2020's map, Biden is sweating out PA, WI, NV, and AZ sitting at a perilous 274.

Dems can't phone it in like they did in 16 and assume because Trump is god awful that independents and the margin voters will come out for Biden.

[mtutiger]

As a parent to a 5 year old, this speaks to me a lot 

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November. I thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016, and that turned out to be the result of a significant underestimation on my part of the impact that an impassioned base like Trump's can muster.

Biden is just so vanilla. His strongest appeal to a great number of voters is that he's not Trump. Which worked out in 2020 when people were ready for that daily god-awful reality show to get cancelled. Many Dems would have voted for any Republican candidate dating back to Reagan, just to be rid of the orange slob... I agree that when Biden exhibits his signature personality, he can be a likable, good to great candidate. But he just doesn't inspire voter turnout in the way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders (to a certain extent) did.

Now that Trump has not been in the daily limelight (at least not as someone who actually matters) for a while now though, it's easy for people to forget. Not a lot of people, but enough? Maybe.

I think it's going to come down to Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, just like 2016 and 2020. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Trump flip Michigan based at least partially off Biden's Israel/Palestine response. Maybe Georgia too just based on how close it was there, combined with their legislator toying with the election laws. From there, off 2020's map, Biden is sweating out PA, WI, NV, and AZ sitting at a perilous 274.

Dems can't phone it in like they did in 16 and assume because Trump is god awful that independents and the margin voters will come out for Biden.

I dont think they will, for what it's worth. If anything, I expect them to work a lot harder than this iteration of the GOP under Trump.

If he loses, it won't be because of effort 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November. I thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016, and that turned out to be the result of a significant underestimation on my part of the impact that an impassioned base like Trump's can muster.

Biden is just so vanilla. His strongest appeal to a great number of voters is that he's not Trump. Which worked out in 2020 when people were ready for that daily god-awful reality show to get cancelled. Many Dems would have voted for any Republican candidate dating back to Reagan, just to be rid of the orange slob... I agree that when Biden exhibits his signature personality, he can be a likable, good to great candidate. But he just doesn't inspire voter turnout in the way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders (to a certain extent) did.

Now that Trump has not been in the daily limelight (at least not as someone who actually matters) for a while now though, it's easy for people to forget. Not a lot of people, but enough? Maybe.

I think it's going to come down to Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, just like 2016 and 2020. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Trump flip Michigan based at least partially off Biden's Israel/Palestine response. Maybe Georgia too just based on how close it was there, combined with their legislator toying with the election laws. From there, off 2020's map, Biden is sweating out PA, WI, NV, and AZ sitting at a perilous 274.

Dems can't phone it in like they did in 16 and assume because Trump is god awful that independents and the margin voters will come out for Biden.

This is where I part a bit with the conventional wisdom about voter motivation. Just my read based on nothing but my own intuition, but I don't see that anyone who was motivated to get Trump out of office is going to be any less motivated to keep hm out of office. To me the difference is that people are quieter about it so maybe it seems the energy is lower, but I think that is the way it works in life. Once you are really resolved about something, when it becomes one of your bottom lines in life,  you don't have to talk about it any more, you don't care about justifying yourselves to others, but you aren't walking away from it either. And in this particular time, people who oppose Trump have largely given up trying to persuade the other side anymore. So for me I don't read the lower apparent energy as necessarily indicating any less resolve to keep Trump out of the WH.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November...

Dems can't phone it in like they did in 16 and assume because Trump is god awful that independents and the margin voters will come out for Biden.

I agree with the bolded part.

Biden can't "rest on his laurels" and will need to press his case across the country, building Dem enthusiasm from the ground up (even though he's not Obama... he still has a dedicated following in Dem circles based simply on his... "reliability"? To do the right thing. And that means from the AA community all across the spectrum... Well... maybe the Palestinian/Muslim-American population won't be enthusiastic about him. But we'll see about that when it comes to crunch time in November. Put up or shut up. Or give up... the country... to Trump).

No.. he needs to message all across the country.. starting with all the purple/ swing states you mentioned.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I dont think they will, for what it's worth. If anything, I expect them to work a lot harder than this iteration of the GOP under Trump.

If he loses, it won't be because of effort 

👍

[oblong]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

This is where I part a bit with the conventional wisdom about voter motivation. Just my read based on nothing but my own intuition, but I don't see that anyone who was motivated to get Trump out of office is going to be any less motivated to keep hm out of office. To me the difference is that people are quieter about it so maybe it seems the energy is lower, but I think that is the way it works in life. Once you are really resolved about something, when it becomes one of your bottom lines in life,  you don't have to talk about it any more, you don't care about justifying yourselves to others, but you aren't walking away from it either. And in this particular time, people who oppose Trump have largely given up trying to persuade the other side anymore. So for me I don't read the lower apparent energy as necessarily indicating any less resolve to keep Trump out of the WH.

Great post.  In my world both jn person and on social media the only political talk is by a few older people still going on and on about the border and CRT and all of that.  I think it’s just boredom on their part. They got nothing to do all day except browse their phones and watch Fox News and listen to their patriot radio. 
 

I bet if we had daytime soaps like before a lot of this would go away. 

[romad1]

I watched Hamilton with my daughter tonight.  Probably seen or heard the album more times than I can count.   She's very theater kid and she's analyzed the costumes, the singing, etc.   Every damn time I see something new.  Tonight the "teach em how to say goodbye" song from Washington for his farewell address floored me again like it always does.   First Chris Jackson who plays Washington has a great voice.  He, Leslie Odom and Renee Goldberry (Angelica) are the top three in that for me. 

That song though...written before Trump attempted his Jan 6 coup.  Before he had his tantrum because he lost.   Its powerful.  America is full of people motivated by that....angry with that.  They may have been exhausted by the stupid WWE/MMA idiocy of the far right and its manufactured anger but they know what real outrage is and they will react appropriately come the time.  The stakes are that Trump will not leave office even if he loses or ignore the constitution or put people in power who will rubber stamp his whims like Project 2025 says he will.   People will know that when the time comes. 

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November. I thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016, and that turned out to be the result of a significant underestimation on my part of the impact that an impassioned base like Trump's can muster.

Biden is just so vanilla. His strongest appeal to a great number of voters is that he's not Trump. Which worked out in 2020 when people were ready for that daily god-awful reality show to get cancelled. Many Dems would have voted for any Republican candidate dating back to Reagan, just to be rid of the orange slob... I agree that when Biden exhibits his signature personality, he can be a likable, good to great candidate. But he just doesn't inspire voter turnout in the way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders (to a certain extent) did.

Now that Trump has not been in the daily limelight (at least not as someone who actually matters) for a while now though, it's easy for people to forget. Not a lot of people, but enough? Maybe.

I think it's going to come down to Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, just like 2016 and 2020. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Trump flip Michigan based at least partially off Biden's Israel/Palestine response. Maybe Georgia too just based on how close it was there, combined with their legislator toying with the election laws. From there, off 2020's map, Biden is sweating out PA, WI, NV, and AZ sitting at a perilous 274.

Dems can't phone it in like they did in 16 and assume because Trump is god awful that independents and the margin voters will come out for Biden.

Most people in this forum and elsewhere predicted an easy win for Clinton in 2016 even though the numbers didn't show it. I am also not very confident that Biden will win.  I say it's 50/50 right now.  I also agree that Biden is unspiring and that his success is based on not being Dump.  I fear some people may have forgotten how unbearable Trump is and won't participate this time.    

[VegasTiger]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

As a parent to a 5 year old, this speaks to me a lot 

Holy crap! Five years old? How the hell can that be?

[gehringer_2]

40 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Most people in this forum and elsewhere predicted an easy win for Clinton in 2016 even though the numbers didn't show it. I am also not very confident that Biden will win.  I say it's 50/50 right now.  I also agree that Biden is unspiring and that his success is based on not being Dump.  I fear some people may have forgotten how unbearable Trump is and won't participate this time.    

It's good to fear, complacency kills. But this election is not too much like 2016. Clinton and Trump were unknowns as leaders. More people thought Hillary would be worse than the she probably would have been, and many, many more people had no idea Trump could be anywhere near as bad as he was/is/could be again. Biden has the advantage that he doesn't need to change anyone's mind, he only has to remind people that have already voted for him that they need to do it again. Things can always to wrong (See Tigers, 2022). The Dems should not lose this election unless they can't get out of their own way. That risk is always real enough.

[mtutiger]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's good to fear, complacency kills. But this election is not too much like 2016. Clinton and Trump were unknowns as leaders. More people thought Hillary would be worse than the she probably would have been, and many, many more people had no idea Trump could be anywhere near as bad as he was/is/could be again. Biden has the advantage that he doesn't need to change anyone's mind, he only has to remind people that have already voted for him that they need to do it again. Things can always to wrong (See Tigers, 2022). The Dems should not lose this election unless they can't get out of their own way. That risk is always real enough.

To the extent that there's a 2016 parallel in this election, there's a tendency for Trump and his supporters to get high off of their own supply. It's low key one of his bigger flaws as a candidate. They are the ones buying all the polls, and the campaign and candidate continually telegraphs that they "don't need" certain voters, etc. 

Which is part of why I am confident with whatever flaws Biden presents as a candidate, I expect that they will work a lot harder between now and November. The money piece is a factor too - they will have the resources to outwork the Trump campaign as well.

It doesn't guarantee victory, but it makes it materially different than 2016 as well... 

Edited March 9 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

It's a practiced thing. It's called the Fundy woman voice. She's been taught to speak like a good submissive wife and mother

Does this basically mean her husband is the real senator?

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as cavalier about Biden's chances in November. I thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016, and that turned out to be the result of a significant underestimation on my part of the impact that an impassioned base like Trump's can muster.

That’s because few people knew who Trump really is back in 2016. Anyone who’s been paying attention has known for forty years that he’s a sleazy crook (thank you, Spy Magazine). Everyone else, which is practically everyone, thought that he was the charming You’re Fired guy from TV. They also thought he would be a politician within a certain range. Everybody knows just who Trump is now, and they either love him or loathe him, and there are a lot more people in that second camp now, and that camp will continue to grow until November 2024.

All those people I hear on C-SPAN in the morning who say they voted for Biden and Hillary and Obama twice and Clinton twice but are going to vote for Trump now are either lying or are agents.

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Biden is just so vanilla. His strongest appeal to a great number of voters is that he's not Trump. Which worked out in 2020 when people were ready for that daily god-awful reality show to get cancelled. Many Dems would have voted for any Republican candidate dating back to Reagan, just to be rid of the orange slob... I agree that when Biden exhibits his signature personality, he can be a likable, good to great candidate. But he just doesn't inspire voter turnout in the way Obama, Bill Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders (to a certain extent) did.

Biden’s 81+ million votes in 2020 was the most votes ever cast for a presidential candidate in history.