Motown Bombers Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: The putsch at the RNC and this reality that Trump always and everywhere diverts all resources to himself is going to hurt GOP fundraising with a lot of traditional non-MAGA contributors. But who knows how big the effect will be? Lets hope for 'huge' Trump is already struggling to raise money. The big donors had already started to abandon him. The only donors he has left are the rubes who can only afford $5 donations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Just a reminder that the courts are not going help us by disqualifying or even besmirching Trump by making him stand trial for acts that constitute legal standing. We're going to have to overcome the “massive resources” that Trump benefactors are going to pour into "election integrity" efforts and defeat him ourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 14 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: I feel like we’ve fallen into a horrible episode of The Twilight Zone I’ve also seen reference to Jesse Ventura in this scenario Who is this "Aaron Rogers" that this guy Collin Ruggs mentions in his tweet three tiimes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Always the victim. Always Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Trump's psychopathic behavior has been normalized to the point of absurtity. He has been treated way too well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 But everyone is so mean to him. 😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 12 hours ago, mtutiger said: Always the victim. Always Trump is Jimmy from Seinfeld. Jimmy played pretty good. Jimmy's got new shoes. Jimmy's the best. No one's like Jimmy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Abe Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, John F. Kennedy and to a lesser extent Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan would like a word. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 The lack of dignity in this clip is something else.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Seriously, choosing Tim Scott as VP would probably be Trump’s best move as of today. I wouldn’t worry about our losing the election because of it, but temperamentally he would be better than another fire-breather like Stefanik or a national joke like Katie Britt, because he could make actual in-roads with conservative black voters, which arguably make up the majority of that demo. Of course, then Scott would have 7-1/2 months to repeatedly shoot himself in the **** in a disqualifying manner, too, so hell, bring him on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Seriously, choosing Tim Scott as VP would probably be Trump’s best move as of today. I wouldn’t worry about our losing the election because of it, but temperamentally he would be better than another fire-breather like Stefanik or a national joke like Katie Britt, because he could make actual in-roads with conservative black voters, which arguably make up the majority of that demo. Of course, then Scott would have 7-1/2 months to repeatedly shoot himself in the **** in a disqualifying manner, too, so hell, bring him on. Trump is going to want someone as obsequious as possible for the role, so as not to upstage him or anything like that. So Scott makes a lot of sense in that regard. The clip above is a good example.... just thirsty as hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 15 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Trump is going to want someone as obsequious as possible for the role, so as not to upstage him or anything like that. So Scott makes a lot of sense in that regard. The clip above is a good example.... just thirsty as hell. Right, agree, and here's something I haven't seen said yet: it's not only that Scott will appeal to some black conservatives who might otherwise hold their noses and vote for Biden—I think he will also appeal to white voters exactly because he is the kind of obsequious black man they feel comfortable with, aka One of the Goods Ones. Red hats don't like angry black folks, which serves as their default idea when contemplating black people in general, and Scott is the opposite of that, and that comports with their wishes, hopes, and views of what America should be: white people firmly in charge, black people cheerfully in support roles. He's a throwback, and if there's one thing red hats want, it's to throw America back to something like pre-1954. Plus, Scott can serve as a sort of Trump Translator to moderates and uncommitteds, a la Key and Peele, softening his worst messaging to try to keep them from peeling off and voting for Biden. The more I write, the more I'm talking myself into it. I don't think Trump is dumb enough or clueless enough to bring on a firebreather like he is. Hope I'm wrong, though! Edited March 15 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I like whenever a Republican considers a black people think blacks are going to vote for them. It's probably worse for the black vote to have an uncle Tom. We saw that with John James. He did worse with the black vote than Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 When the GOP puts forward an African American for something its usually because they think they would otherwise lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: I like whenever a Republican considers a black people think blacks are going to vote for them. It's probably worse for the black vote to have an uncle Tom. We saw that with John James. He did worse with the black vote than Trump. I agree with this. Also, Tim Scott is probably the most anti-choice politician that Trump is considering for the VP slot, so I'll take the under on him being a "moderate" whisperer as well. The guy is *really* conservative... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Tim Scott is more for the white people who are like see I have a black friend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I like whenever a Republican considers a black people think blacks are going to vote for them. It's probably worse for the black vote to have an uncle Tom. We saw that with John James. He did worse with the black vote than Trump. That might be, although if the polling we've been seeing is any kind of accurate, black voters have already been moving toward Trump, if ever so slightly, and I don't think it's because they're angry about their social standing in America under Biden, because Trump is saying zero about helping remedy anything like that. So Tim Scott might hurt because he's an uncle tom, but he might help because he'd be a black man who is one too many KFC buckets from the most power office in the world. Can't know either way until it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 11 minutes ago, chasfh said: That might be, although if the polling we've been seeing is any kind of accurate, black voters have already been moving toward Trump, if ever so slightly, and I don't think it's because they're angry about their social standing in America under Biden, because Trump is saying zero about helping remedy anything like that. So Tim Scott might hurt because he's an uncle tom, but he might help because he'd be a black man who is one too many KFC buckets from the most power office in the world. Can't know either way until it plays out. I would be really hesitant to buy too hard into the crosstabs of black voters that some of these public polls are showing. In addition, there has been at least one oversample of black voters (see below) that contradicts the idea of major slippage with the community as well. I suspect there will be marginal slippage (as there was in 2020), but it's possible, if not likely, that crosstabs in a lot of public polling aren't accurately capturing actual sentiment within the community. Edited March 15 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I would be really hesitant to buy too hard into the crosstabs of black voters that some of these public polls are showing. In addition, there has been at least one oversample of black voters (see below) that contradicts the idea of major slippage with the community as well. I suspect there will be marginal slippage (as there was in 2020), but it's possible, if not likely, that crosstabs in a lot of public polling aren't accurately capturing actual sentiment within the community. Okey doke. Hope you're right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I would add that I still take most of the poll toplines (generally averaging to around a Trump 1-2 pt lead nationally) at face value, but there's been a really consistent trend of crosstabs likely overstating Trump's support among the young / minority groups and overstating Biden's strength with older / white voters. There needs to be a lot more evidence, IMO, that each of these groups is going to experience an epochal shift in a rematch between the same two candidates four years ago. Otherwise I think we have to consider the possibility of sampling errors (as G. Elliott Morris at 538 has suggested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 It's like we go through this every election. Black folks are moving to the right and yet they always come home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: It's like we go through this every election. Black folks are moving to the right and yet they always come home. I'm old enough to remember when Herschel Walker was going to get 20% of the black vote in Georgia (he got around 5%, iirc) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 19 minutes ago, chasfh said: Okey doke. Hope you're right. When we are considering subsamples with "n" values in the 100-200 range (which is where NYT/Siena was with AA voters a couple of weeks ago in their sample), it's fair to say that there's a pretty high MOE versus a n=800 sample. If NYT/Siena goes out and surveys 800 AA voters and comes back with Trump at 20+%, I'd take it a little more seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I think in the wake of the civil unrest following Floyd's murder, and all the 'defund the police' talk, plus the general minority skepticism about the medical establishment re-juiced by the pandemic, you had a bit of a perfect storm for driving more socially conservative AA voters away from 'the party of AOC.' But consider the last 4 yrs. Society has calmed down, crime is down (and no segment of the society feels that more immediately than the black community), *nobody* in the Biden admin gets anywhere near anything but law and order rhetoric, the Press has put himself front and center into the Union movement, and the VP is an ex-prosecutor at whom progressives have aimed a lot of criticism in the past. IOW, this admin has pretty well inoculated itself against most of the trends that were alienating socially conservative blacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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