2024 Presidential Election thread

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

When we are considering subsamples with "n" values in the 100-200 range (which is where NYT/Siena was with AA voters a couple of weeks ago in their sample), it's fair to say that there's a pretty high MOE versus a n=800 sample.

If NYT/Siena goes out and surveys 800 AA voters and comes back with Trump at 20+%, I'd take it a little more seriously.

I didn’t think it was one single poll of insubstantial sample size indicating this. I’ve seen this suggestion in news items for a few months now. But you’re more wired into the minutiae of the polls than I am, so I’ll take your word for it.

For your part, I’m confident you will concede that I did not state categorically that black voters are moving toward Trump in great gobs, but that I qualified it with if true, speculatively.

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I didn’t think it was one single poll of insubstantial sample size indicating this. I’ve seen this suggestion in news items for a few months now. 

Part of why it has been in the news is because outlets like the NYT use the one single poll that they fielded (with crosstabs of insubstantial sample size) to write up an article that makes sweeping judgments on the electorate based on said crosstabs. Which then leads to significant media coverage across many outlets which references said poll and crosstabs.

The polls inform the media coverage, you can't really divorce the two.

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

For your part, I’m confident you will concede that I did not state categorically that black voters are moving toward Trump in great gobs, but that I qualified it with if true, speculatively.

Yes, I will concede that.

Edited March 15 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think in the wake of the civil unrest following Floyd's murder, and all the 'defund the police' talk, plus the general minority skepticism about the medical establishment re-juiced by the pandemic, you had a bit of a perfect storm for driving more socially conservative AA voters away from 'the party of AOC.' But consider the last 4 yrs. Society has calmed down, crime is down (and no segment of the society feels that more immediately than the black community), *nobody* in the Biden admin gets anywhere near anything but law and order rhetoric, the Press has put himself front and center into the Union movement, and the VP is an ex-prosecutor at whom progressives have aimed a lot of criticism in the past. IOW, this admin has pretty well inoculated itself against most of the trends that were alienating socially conservative blacks.

With black voters, to the extent there's erosion, I doubt it's with older, more socially conservative blacks, I suspect it's more with younger male voters (particularly non-college educated) and breaks more along economic lines than anything else. There's also been the passage of time since the Civil Rights era.... the older voters remember that, younger voters less so.

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I suspect it's more with younger male voters (particularly non-college educated)

among whom unemployment is at the lowest level since the '70s. We know economic data no longer trumps cultural issues to the degree it once did, but it ain't hurting either.

Edited March 15 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

Kinda comes as a surprise to me, honestly

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, GoBlue23 said:

Ha, beat you!

I think it's interesting that some of his most ardent opposition among conservatives comes from people who served in his first administration or were associated with his time in office (ie. Ty Cobb). 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Kinda comes as a surprise to me, honestly

I am surprised too.  I expected a wishy washy non-committal answer.  

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am surprised too.  I expected a wishy washy non-committal answer.  

Once they abandon their own political ambitions, people get a lot saner.

[Tiger337]

I think the former VP not endorsing the President should be a really big deal.  Unfortunately, Pence is too boring for the media to make it one.  

[oblong]

18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the former VP not endorsing the President should be a really big deal.  Unfortunately, Pence is too boring for the media to make it one.  

Right. Maybe it’s not unprecedented but should certainly be newsworthy. 

[romad1]

40 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the former VP not endorsing the President should be a really big deal.  Unfortunately, Pence is too boring for the media to make it one.  

MAGA:  Pence shouldn't hold grudges over something so trivial as the sainted Trump sicking a mob of self-righteous idiots on him which had brought its own gallows with it. 

[romad1]

according to one tweet 4 out of 44 Trump cabinet officials and other senior officials from Trump admin refuse to endorse him or have warned about a second administration being the end of democracy.

[romad1]

This is amazing 

 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I think the former VP not endorsing the President should be a really big deal.  Unfortunately, Pence is too boring for the media to make it one.  

Agreed.

The only way for Pence to make more of an impact is to come out much, much, much stronger than that.

"No surprise I will not endorse Trump."

meh.

Pence: "I will be voting for Joe Biden in November because TFG is an existential threat against our Democracy. I encourage my fellow Republicans to do the same. I also encourage a split ticket vote to have a check against President Biden. But I implore you... you MUST vote for our Democracy and that means Joe Biden, NOT Donald Trump."

result...

MAGA explodes.

Trump explodes.

Trump has an aneurysm as his head explodes.

Much better result.

And the media might even cover that.

[gehringer_2]

45 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

Pence: "I will be voting for Joe Biden in November because TFG is an existential threat against our Democracy.

Actually the people Pence could reach are not the ones who care about democracy. Pence's cred is greatest with the religious right. If he repudiated Trump on religious grounds using an evangelical theological approach, attacked the 'Trump as Cyrus' trope as wrong/heretical, etc., tells his listeners that Jesus has told him the movement has made a bad turn,  then some heads *might* be more likely to explode. Maybe.

Edited March 16 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Actually the people Pence could reach are not the ones who care about democracy. Pence's cred is greatest with the religious right. If he repudiated Trump on religious grounds using an evangelical theological approach, attacked the 'Trump as Cyrus' trope as wrong/heretical, etc., tells his listeners that Jesus has told him the movement has made a bad turn,  then some heads *might* be more likely to explode. Maybe.

That's a great angle to take.

But I think my point is valid.

The more "normal", "moderate", "centrist", and even "evangelical" Republicans, like Mike Pence, that come out and straight up state that they are voting for Joe Biden because of Donald Trump:

The more cover is provided for other Republicans to do the same. 

The more damage MAGA takes.

The less likely Trump gets re-elected.

The more likely moderates can wrest some kind of control over their Party.

Because they've lost it completely at this point. The RNC will now be completely MAGAfied. The Republican Party is now being whittled down to MAGA-only, by Trump. And his cohorts.

In fact, "normal" Republicans may not even want to try and regain their party and will now be lost... looking for a home. Wherever that may be.

But it all starts out with "normal", and again, even evangelical Republicans similar to Mike Pence, speaking out unequivocally that they no longer stand behind Trump's and MAGA's fascism and therefore are voting Democrat. They have no chance of anything until they are able to discredit Trump. And this is the biggest possible way to do that.

It's necessary and they all know that.

But do they have the courage?

So far... no.

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Actually the people Pence could reach are not the ones who care about democracy. Pence's cred is greatest with the religious right. If he repudiated Trump on religious grounds using an evangelical theological approach, attacked the 'Trump as Cyrus' trope as wrong/heretical, etc., tells his listeners that Jesus has told him the movement has made a bad turn,  then some heads *might* be more likely to explode. Maybe.

I get what you are saying, but we aren't living in a Sorkin-esque political landscape. I'm kind of over expecting a Joe Biden endorsement from people like Mike Pence - there's real convictions, particularly with someone like Pence given his social conservatism, that prevent him from doing it. And whatever impact him coming out like this and saying he won't endorse has in the parts of the GOP where he has any credibility at this point (I would imagine it's not a big group), I think that impact would be blunted if he outright endorsed Biden.... in fact, I think it'd increase the likelihood that the people who could be influenced by his position would just tune him out if he did.

The better way to look at this with Pence and other former members of Trump's administration (which, btw, includes Nikki Haley, at least at this moment) is less about whether they out and out endorse Biden and more about whether their withholding of an endorsement can successfully create a permission structure for GOP voters who don't like Trump and don't want to vote for him to consider an alternative option, whether it be leaving the President box blank, voting third party or actually voting for Biden. 

I don't know that it will work, but putting myself in their shoes, assuming they truly do not want Trump to win, that's how I would be approaching it.

Edited March 16 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

This framing is pretty smart.... 

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I get what you are saying, but we aren't living in a Sorkin-esque political landscape. I'm kind of over expecting a Joe Biden endorsement from people like Mike Pence

Don't disagree. I didn't mean to say it was expected, I was commenting on who I think Pence's constituency is, where I think he would have the most leverage should he ever use it. I've said before I'm a firm believer that the American Republican has so much of their identity construct tied up in the affiliation with that label that "refuse to endorse" is as far as they can ever get. Politically that means at best a non-voter, most likely only a non-presidential voter who still pulls the red level down the rest of the ticket. That would be enough to stop Trump, but means it's still a big lift for the Dems to get both houses and put an end to the current Congressional nihilism.

Edited March 16 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Don't disagree. I didn't mean to say it was expected, I was commenting on who I think Pence's constituency is, where I think he would have the most leverage should he ever use it. I've said before I'm a firm believer that the American Republican has so much of their identity construct tied up in the affiliation with that label that "refuse to endorse" is as far as they can ever get. Politically that means at best a non-voter, most likely only a non-presidential voter who still pulls the red level down the rest of the ticket. That would be enough to stop Trump, but means it's still a big lift for the Dems to get both houses and put an end to the current Congressional nihilism.

Yeah, I think may have associated your comment a little too closely with 84's. I agree with what you say above...

The other thing to keep in mind is that, while it's probably not realistic for people like Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, etc. to endorse Biden because their entire lives are wrapped around this political party, voters who are in the mold or prefer the GOP of Pence/Haley/etc. in the real world don't necessarily have that same calculus. That's why the "permission structure" thing matters... 

2020 is a good example.... there was no shortage of conservative pundits (and some politicians) in 2020 who didn't like Trump who would talk about voting third party, but the reality is, looking at a map of the Milwaukee or Phoenix suburbs and how they voted in 2020, it's pretty clear that there were plenty of people like this who *did* vote for Joe Biden.

Edited March 16 by mtutiger

[pfife]

Mr Pence, welcome to the resistance

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

... The other thing to keep in mind is that, while it's probably not realistic for people like Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, etc. to endorse Biden because their entire lives are wrapped around this political party, voters ...

I believe there are certain Republican politicians who can, or cannot, cross that bridge (actually endorse Joe Biden).

I don't believe Haley can... because she is hunting for some possible future in the Party post-Trump; however that comes about and in whatever form that looks like.

There are other Republicans who have actively been kicked out of the party politics due to their non-alignment with Trump, and that is not just Adam Kinzinger or Liz Cheney. 

I'm not certain where Pence falls within that spectrum.

But for those who are no longer welcome in the Party, unless they straight up start boot-licking Trump (the only acceptable position in the current Trumpublican Party), I believe that aside from their own possible political ambitions, or lack thereof, that the GOP is lost to them. And that their only discourse is to openly support a Biden 2024 Presidency in order to defeat the MAGA hold on the GOP.

They can NOT chart another course for the GOP... unless they chart another course for the GOP. Explicitly, and out loud. I know there is a major fear factor in this... losing one's political career... but some have already lost theirs. It's gone. Replaced with the GQP.

They have nothing left to lose, IMO.

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

 

Edited March 16 by 1984Echoes

[mtutiger]

6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

But for those who are no longer welcome in the Party, unless they straight up start boot-licking Trump (the only acceptable position in the current Trumpublican Party), I believe that aside from their own possible political ambitions, or lack thereof, that the GOP is lost to them. And that their only discourse is to openly support a Biden 2024 Presidency in order to defeat the MAGA hold on the GOP.

I used to think this way in 2020, but strategically if I was someone like Pence (who I believe genuinely doesn't want Trump to win) and wanted to change hearts and minds, I would have to take into account the constituency that I appeal to.

Pence's constituency are social conservatives, particularly evangelical ones. At this moment, this group is central to Trump's support (like, 80-20 or somewhere in that range). From reading part of Tim Alberta's new book on the evangelical movement, my takeaway is that a move like endorsing Biden would probably backfire with this group and cause them to just tune Pence out. 

It goes against the grain, but to the extent that any of it matters, withholding the endorsement alone is a more effective bridge in this case.

Edited March 16 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, romad1 said:

MAGA:  Pence shouldn't hold grudges over something so trivial as the sainted Trump sicking a mob of self-righteous idiots on him which had brought its own gallows with it. 

Also MAGA: Mike Pence is just another RINO. Good riddance. Don’t let us see you on the streets around here at night.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, romad1 said:

according to one tweet 4 out of 44 Trump cabinet officials and other senior officials from Trump admin refuse to endorse him or have warned about a second administration being the end of democracy.

MAGA: 91% is an A.