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2024 Presidential Election thread


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59 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Those people can be reached. Based on anecdotes I've seen over the past few months or so, a lot of them already have. There's still more work to do with the others.

The people who can't be reached are those who vote for him who absolutely want that stuff. They are jealous of their parents and grandparents and great-grandparents who got to live in the the pre-Brown era. They have a lot of rage they need to vent. All they're waiting for is permission from the state.

The polls don't suggest that people are being reached.  I know it's early, but if people hate Trump as much as you say, you would think that it would start showing up in the polls.  Yes, the polls could be wrong, but I'm not making that assumption.  

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13 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The polls don't suggest that people are being reached.  I know it's early, but if people hate Trump as much as you say, you would think that it would start showing up in the polls.  Yes, the polls could be wrong, but I'm not making that assumption.  

Overall the polls missed in 2020 by about 3.5% to the blue side. If Biden were to win another elections by exactly the same vote it would mean that error had reversed to a few percentage overestimate to the red side. So if you believe that US politics is actually pretty ossified, one explanation would be that the pollsters looked at the miss in 2020 and when they re-tuned their likely voter models they went too far the other way. But even so, 3% is a pretty standard margin of error of political polling, and in the US electoral system 3% of the popular vote easily swings an election from big loss to big win. Add to that the big turnout uncertainties you're at a point where too much fixation on the polling is sort of futile. There is enough uncertainty for the election to be out there for either side to take despite the polling data esp because no-one has a good handle on who is going to vote anymore. 

Polls present risk either way. If you trust polls that show you ahead but are wrong, you don't work hard enough were you need to, if you trust polls that show you behind that are wrong, you pull resources out of winnable districts. Just run the best campaign you can.

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The stakes this November are your ability to stop working for your boss before you die.   Do not come @ me with actuarial tables.  I've known too many otherwise healthy people who dropped within a year of retirement at 65 because they "finally had time" to get regular medical appointments.

 

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Just as an aside, representatives from 33 states met in Williamsburg this week to discuss and exchange plans for the nations 250th celebration of the Declaration of Independence.

As expected CW went all out in welcoming these folks. The closing "ceremony" was a bit of a history lesson centered around the events in May of 1774 when the Royal Governor dissolved the House of Burgesses after they announced a "Day of Prayer and Fasting" in support Boston colonists.

The group met the next day to discuss plans for sharing information with the other colonies. The group was about as evenly split as we seem to be today, especially those who depended on the mother country for their goods and livelihood.

This was re-enacted for the conference participants and whatever tourists and school groups that happened to be on DOG yesterday afternoon. In his closing comments  Daniel Cross, who portrays Col George Washington, reminded those gathered outside Raleigh Tavern about the opening lines of the Constitution.

We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.

(my words now....The Constitution does not say I alone can fix it)

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2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Oh, this sort of thing is just going to make the independents that much more likely to side with Trump against such unfairness.  How dare Biden call out Trump's inane dumb****ery!?

 

Or suggested they shine an ultra violet light up an orifice 

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1 hour ago, GoBlue23 said:

I saw on Twitter earlier where they were talking about being able to pay Trump's bond if every Trump voter donated 6 bucks.  They don't care that Trump is pilfering the RNC, they'll cheer it.   

Trump campaign ads are basically going to be like those African children commercials where for the cost of a cup of coffee you can help save this poor soul from minimum security prison. 

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12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Oh my

I’m not a little conflicted about this. On the one hand I think, since this organization is an integral part of the governing of our nation, shouldn’t the government step in and regulate this kind of thing out of existence? And shouldn’t Trump or anyone else be barred from taking political donations—which are tax-deductible and thus indirectly costs us all—that are supposed to be earmarked for winning elections and using it for his personal defense in his criminal trials? On the other hand, I think, well, the RNC aren’t the actual government, they’re a private organization, so if they want to fleece their donors and their donors are going in with eyes wide open, then really, who gives a ****?

I am truly conflicted about this, even if everyone else here is clear as crystal about their feelings.

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The RNC doesn't govern.  They are not part of the government.  They are a function of a political party.  The only connection is that they can use elections to elect delegates.  

But then again.... do they get federal funding?  If you select that $3 box on your taxes does that go to the DNC and RNC?  If so then I think the government does have a say here in how money is spent.

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20 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

From the article:

Quote

But Trump won’t be able to cash out the Friday deal’s windfall immediately, unless some things change, due to a “lock-up” provision that prevents company insiders from selling newly issued shares for six months.

Does not change his short term issues, but still shady as hell

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