2024 Presidential Election thread

[1776]

10 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Perception on the economy is improving. 

Personally, I’ve not seen the economy as being “bad,” to borrow the term. Inflation has clearly been a detriment in the last year or so but that, to some degree, is being overplayed at this point.
 

[1776]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Find data from 4 years ago to answer the MAGA question. I'm much better off than I was 4 years ago. And the local church doesn't have traffic jams of people in SUVs trying to get boxes of food to feed their families.

Clearly we have a much better economy today than what we were experiencing in 2020. My position was, regardless of who was in the oval Office in 2020, Americans weren’t going to get around the economic disaster that befell the U.S. 

 

[1776]

Kamala may not know where the southern border is but she has figured out where North Carolina is. She has made four trips to NC this year. She and Joe were here less than two weeks ago. 

[Sports_Freak]

34 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Clearly we have a much better economy today than what we were experiencing in 2020. My position was, regardless of who was in the oval Office in 2020, Americans weren’t going to get around the economic disaster that befell the U.S. 

 

Because of Trump's mishandling of the virus. We agree, most of us are better off than 4 years ago. A simple question with a simple answer.

[Motown Bombers]

29 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Kamala may not know where the southern border is but she has figured out where North Carolina is. She has made four trips to NC this year. She and Joe were here less than two weeks ago. 

Interesting how someone so far from the border is concerned about the border. Harris is the former senator of the state with the busiest border crossing in the Western Hemisphere. She's familiar with southern border. 

BTW, Biden and Harris were just recently in California, Arizona and Texas. Also Nevada which isn't technically the border. Trump canceled a trip to Arizona. 

[Motown Bombers]

Illinois was brought up in the Minnesota discussion and you can see the democratic trends are extending outside of Chicago. 

 

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I don't either, but I also don't think the group with confidence and bravado is particularly large.... conventional wisdom at the moment is that Trump would win if the election were held today.

This is only because no one is really paying attention to the actual election today, except for RABID MAGA.

I mean, not only them...

But I think today's polls are unserious. And ONLY when the election date actually comes into scope will people stop mucking around with being mushy and firm up, IMO, recognizing how atrocious another Trump administration would be for this country and quit F'ing around and swing their support fully behind Biden.

I also have a healthy dose of fear... I mean, anything could go wrong...

But I have true confidence (it may come off as "bravado" but I believe it's closer to "true confidence") that all the factors in this country will come together and be a major repudiation of Trump.

[romad1]

interesting 

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, 1776 said:

My point again is that the perception/reality is that Biden is ignoring the border issues. That’s all that matters when voters make a choice on Election Day. They’re not going to care what courts ruled what. And it’s not just MAGA folks either. They see a president that appears to be just fine with the current state of things. 

I really just don't believe that this one issue is going to:

Override EVERYTHING ELSE.

Sorry... I just don't see it. (I see mtutiger said exactly the same right after your post... But, just to emphasize...)

[1776]

36 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Interesting how someone so far from the border is concerned about the border. 

🙄

[1984Echoes]

13 minutes ago, romad1 said:

interesting 

Flush that bond down the toilet and make him PAY UP.

[romad1]

another twist

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I really just don't believe that this one issue is going to:

Override EVERYTHING ELSE.

Sorry... I just don't see it. (I see mtutiger said exactly the same right after your post... But, just to emphasize...)

Just my two cents, but there's a tendency in the larger discussion to rate issues where the ground is more favorable to the GOP as more important versus those that favor Dems (specifically Dobbs).... and we've seen multiple off-Presidential cycles where that particular issue was downplayed and where, when the votes were counted, it mattered a lot more than people expected it would.

Whether that extends to a Presidential cycle remains to be seen, but you would think that folks would be a little more careful than to casually dismiss the importance of that issue.

[romad1]

So, it appears that the guy who cheats poor people has some legal issues that might be a problem for this bond

 

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Because of Trump's mishandling of the virus. We agree, most of us are better off than 4 years ago. A simple question with a simple answer.

10 Bill Clintons paired up with 20 Alan Greenspans, coming off of 50 Bush Sr tax increases couldn't have handled Covid without some legitimate economic pain.

I'm not saying Trump handled it well, but democrats need to be careful how they play this argument.  With kids, folks are realizing how much shutting everything down affected them and their learning.  It wasn't the GOP that wanted them couped up alone for a couple of years.  The economy, assuming no major changes in the next 6 months, should be pretty much a non-factor, which generally supports the incumbent.  

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

10 Bill Clintons paired up with 20 Alan Greenspans, coming off of 50 Bush Sr tax increases couldn't have handled Covid without some legitimate economic pain.

I'm not saying Trump handled it well, but democrats need to be careful how they play this argument.  With kids, folks are realizing how much shutting everything down affected them and their learning.  It wasn't the GOP that wanted them couped up alone for a couple of years.  The economy, assuming no major changes in the next 6 months, should be pretty much a non-factor, which generally supports the incumbent.  

4 years ago;

[CMRivdogs]

9 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

10 Bill Clintons paired up with 20 Alan Greenspans, coming off of 50 Bush Sr tax increases couldn't have handled Covid without some legitimate economic pain.

I'm not saying Trump handled it well, but democrats need to be careful how they play this argument.  With kids, folks are realizing how much shutting everything down affected them and their learning.  It wasn't the GOP that wanted them couped up alone for a couple of years.  The economy, assuming no major changes in the next 6 months, should be pretty much a non-factor, which generally supports the incumbent.  

Not saying there was an economic plan but some people forget that Obama's successor's staff basically tore up and trashed a plan to deal with a possible pandemic

[ewsieg]

18 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Not saying there was an economic plan but some people forget that Obama's successor's staff basically tore up and trashed a plan to deal with a possible pandemic

Yup, Trump certainly shouldn't be able to run on the economy either.  Just saying a bad economy tends to favor the opponent.  I understand Democrats wanting to say the economy is great to fight against any GOP push to a different agenda.  My concern is Democrats being so concerned with controlling the talking points that it works against them, for instance those pointing out it was the democrats that pushed to keep the economy shuttered longer.  Additionally I don't think the younger folks 20-30 year olds, trying to rent or buy a house, will be particularly keen to Democrats boasting about the economy.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Just my two cents, but there's a tendency in the larger discussion to rate issues where the ground is more favorable to the GOP as more important versus those that favor Dems...

If there's one issue that could override everything else and create a massive wave/ change...

It's not the southern border.

It's overturning Roe v Wade (HEAVILY in Dems favor).

So, yes, that seems to be downplayed for the most part and what is emphasized is ("Oh Biden is a gonna lose 'cause the southern border (not true) and he's a gonna lose 'cause the economy (not true) and he's a gonna lose 'cause the Pro-Palestines peoples hates him (not true IMO. They're mad at him... but I think that changes by November, even before that, IMO...)".

[CMRivdogs]

 

4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Yup, Trump certainly shouldn't be able to run on the economy either.  Just saying a bad economy tends to favor the opponent.  I understand Democrats wanting to say the economy is great to fight against any GOP push to a different agenda.  My concern is Democrats being so concerned with controlling the talking points that it works against them, for instance those pointing out it was the democrats that pushed to keep the economy shuttered longer.  Additionally I don't think the younger folks 20-30 year olds, trying to rent or buy a house, will be particularly keen to Democrats boasting about the economy.

To me the false argument is trying to argue about the pandemic economy vs the current state. I can go back to 2017 when we sold our house and began downsizing. A two bedroom bath ranch apartment cost us about 1300 a month in March of 2017. It was a move in special on a 16 month lease....it went up to just over 1600 when we renewed in 2018. If we would have renewed the end of 2020 it would have been around 1800 or more. Now they're asking about 2050 for the same apartment. Our current Mortgage for a similar sized townhouse is about 1400 a month.

Gas prices fluctuated as they always do under every administration. Food prices have gone up just about every year since I moved out of my parents home in 1973, but then I'm also making more than $150 a week than I did back then and thank to things like IRA's and HSA's were in decent shape.

Hell yes I'm better off than I was 4 or even 8 years ago.

[CMRivdogs]

Sorry for the double post above. Two topics on one replay. Getting old and multi tasking  is hell sometimes

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Food prices have gone up just about every year since I moved out of my parents home in 1973, but then I'm also making more than $150 a week than I did back then and thank to things like IRA's and HSA's were in decent shape.

I saw one analysis that I thought was spot on: Emotionally, when prices go up, you process that directly, but when you get a raise, you don't see it as because wages and prices generally go up together as part of the same macro economic effect, it's because YOU, as an individual,  earned IT. So even though you are keeping up, you don't process your wage increases as inflation cancellation the way an economist would tell you they really are.

I think there a kernel of truth there.

 

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

So, yes, that seems to be downplayed for the most part and what is emphasized is ("Oh Biden is a gonna lose 'cause the southern border (not true) and he's a gonna lose 'cause the economy (not true) and he's a gonna lose 'cause the Pro-Palestines peoples hates him (not true IMO. They're mad at him... but I think that changes by November, even before that, IMO...)".

Sarah Longwell made a point on a podcast recently that while abortion isn't always listed as a top issue for voters in surveys, at least in the focus group setting, when you peel back the layers of the onion a bit, people end up displaying a lot of passion and intensity around it.

I suspect that's a little of what's at play here.... when the rubber meets the road and when people step into the ballot box, it's something that manfiests.

[CMRivdogs]