chasfh Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 23 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: I'll throw this here rather than creating a House Election thread... It's interesting because his gerrymandered district runs about 250 miles north to south, includes the cities of Danville and Lynchburg before reaching into the far suburbs of NoVa. I saw tons of Trump/Good signs while driving thru the area Sunday. I guess they need to be updated. Maybe it’s because Good came in with a light envelope this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Thread 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 "Pretty decent chance" is peak Nate Silver. Just throw **** out there with enough cover so that when he's wrong he can claim "Well I particularly didn't say he would be recalled". I'm not sure he's capable of ever fully answering a question with a simple yes or no answer. Lots of people in that thread I unfollowed. The world has changed so much that polling is becoming useless. That impact goes beyond elections. Corporations used polling and that kind of research and now they will find themselves not knowing what to do. As people gain more control over their choices in what they consume and why it means big business has to figure out how to give them what they want and to convince them to want what they provide. For generations people were force fed. Now everybody is on their own island and we can't figure out what they think or want. They'll tell us when they vote and buy/watch something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 17 minutes ago, oblong said: "Pretty decent chance" is peak Nate Silver. Just throw **** out there with enough cover so that when he's wrong he can claim "Well I particularly didn't say he would be recalled". I'm not sure he's capable of ever fully answering a question with a simple yes or no answer. Lots of people in that thread I unfollowed. The world has changed so much that polling is becoming useless. That impact goes beyond elections. Corporations used polling and that kind of research and now they will find themselves not knowing what to do. As people gain more control over their choices in what they consume and why it means big business has to figure out how to give them what they want and to convince them to want what they provide. For generations people were force fed. Now everybody is on their own island and we can't figure out what they think or want. They'll tell us when they vote and buy/watch something. AD tech would seem to be more definitive than polling but much harder to package for the voter and decision maker. If your phone is telling me (presume I have access to ad tech data) that your device loves articles about how evil Trump is and you have many emails coming to the device from NeverTrump groups, i'd say that your device is owned by a likely Biden voter. I don't think we have bridged that gap between what advertisers are getting out of this and what politicians can't yet say that they are getting out of this technology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 2 hours ago, romad1 said: AD tech would seem to be more definitive than polling but much harder to package for the voter and decision maker. If your phone is telling me (presume I have access to ad tech data) that your device loves articles about how evil Trump is and you have many emails coming to the device from NeverTrump groups, i'd say that your device is owned by a likely Biden voter. I don't think we have bridged that gap between what advertisers are getting out of this and what politicians can't yet say that they are getting out of this technology. Technically, for this data to become legal and actionable, users have to consent to their data being used in this way. Practically, the consent can be buried in a 100-page end user agreement that users will literally never read a word of. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: There is a huge difference between how NBC and how MSNBC is covering this. The coverage whenever they go to that broader audience is full of caveats about it being "seen as a witchhunt by many" which is the purest copium you'll ever find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 every youtube video should start with a commercial on Project 2025. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Deregulating all industries doesn't lead to catastrophe, does it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Nah, they'll still kiss his ass... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) There will be a lot of speculation in the coming days about what impact the conviction may have, but this data maybe gives a clue where you might see movement (if it happens)... People are so accustomed to him just getting away with anything and everything to the point of people seeing him as a cartoon character.... and this event has the potential of piercing that image (at least more than anything in recent memory) Edited May 31 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 The mere mention that Hilary's emails would be investigated sank her campaign and we are to believe that being convicted of 34 felonies won't have a negative effect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 9 hours ago, mtutiger said: People are so accustomed to him just getting away with anything and everything to the point of people seeing him as a cartoon character.... and this event has the potential of piercing that image (at least more than anything in recent memory) Oh please, please, PLEASE!!!, please... This is the PRIMARY thing that matters. To pierce OZ's curtain and reveal that there's nothing but a grotesque antidemocratic con-artist racist fascist ****wad deuchebag scumbag behind that curtain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Be wary of polls coming out in the next few days or weeks. The right is going to flood the electorate in doctored polls to show that Trump is gaining support. It's the same thing they did in the 2022 midterms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 10 hours ago, mtutiger said: There will be a lot of speculation in the coming days about what impact the conviction may have, but this data maybe gives a clue where you might see movement (if it happens)... People are so accustomed to him just getting away with anything and everything to the point of people seeing him as a cartoon character.... and this event has the potential of piercing that image (at least more than anything in recent memory) I can envision all of this happening, speaking specifically of potential Trump voters: People are just fed up with the nonsense and circus and will not vote for him. They don't vote for him for the reasons in this tweet. Or it emboldens a base that was growing empathatic. I don't trust the polls to tell us the answer. We'll get it on Nov 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 I'm curious what the betting lines are saying today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben9753 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) Polls are basically horoscopes at this point. Some people will use them to confirm their priors, but they are essentially useless. Edited May 31 by ben9753 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 2 hours ago, oblong said: I can envision all of this happening, speaking specifically of potential Trump voters: People are just fed up with the nonsense and circus and will not vote for him. They don't vote for him for the reasons in this tweet. Or it emboldens a base that was growing empathatic. I don't trust the polls to tell us the answer. We'll get it on Nov 5. 1 hour ago, ben9753 said: Polls are basically horoscopes at this point. Some people will use them to confirm their priors, but they are essentially useless. I don't necessarily trust the magnitude of the breakdowns, but directionally at least, I think it's probably right in suggesting people weren't paying attention, vaguely thought Trump committed crimes in this case but didn't think that he would be convicted.... and that all changed yesterday. Where we go from here, I don't know.... but I do think the thread is generally correct in where changes may happen. Edited May 31 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 I mean..... I wasn't even paying attention other than what was posted in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 24 minutes ago, oblong said: I mean..... I wasn't even paying attention other than what was posted in this thread. To be honest, I didn't really tune in or start even reading into it until when closing arguments began.... I wouldn't have put money on a conviction either, despite the strength of the prosecution, due to the stature of the defendant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Every hit on the Bismarck is necessary to sink it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 On 5/30/2024 at 7:24 AM, oblong said: "Pretty decent chance" is peak Nate Silver. Just throw **** out there with enough cover so that when he's wrong he can claim "Well I particularly didn't say he would be recalled". I'm not sure he's capable of ever fully answering a question with a simple yes or no answer. Pretty much everybody in my field does the same thing. It is not a negative for us. It is part of our job and saying something with 100% certainty would be considered dishonest. So, maybe Silver is now in the wrong job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Pretty much everybody in my field does the same thing. It is not a negative for us. It is part of our job and saying something with 100% certainty would be considered dishonest. So, maybe Silver is now in the wrong job One issue with Silver falling back on that is that he very often in recent years has veered out of his lane and, in the process, not heeded that advice (ie. COVID) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: One issue with Silver falling back on that is that he very often in recent years has veered out of his lane and, in the process, not heeded that advice (ie. COVID) I am not sure I understand the problem. Relying on Silver for Covid advice would be the problem. Personally, I don't pay much attention to silver anymore because his strength is probability statistics and he has gotten away from that and strayed into commentary which is not his forte. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.