RatkoVarda Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 16 minutes ago, romad1 said: Talk of Trump refusing the drug test for the probation interview. He's nervous about the Adderall. not sure how they do chain of custody for urine test on a virtual interview; I guess he could go to LabCorp location in Palm Beach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 It would be a "perfect" specimen. The best urine sample ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 This is just me thinking aloud based on some anecdotal evidence as well as what I remember in terms of polls/results from 2016, 2020. If I remember correctly, Hillary was expected to easily beat Trump but lost. By 2020, Biden had an edge in the polls but everyone freaked out due to the 'they will vote for Trump, but they are afraid to tell anyone they will' factor that was believed to be the big reason for the inaccuracy of the 2016 elections. Trump did better than polls suggested, but not by the margin in 2016. My mom and one of her sisters and one of her brothers are the biggest Trump fans (or so I thought) around. And by Trump fans, they admit he's crooked, but it's a 'they are all crooked, at least he's honest about it' mentality. I just found out my aunt won't be voting for Trump. If you looked at her facebook feed you would have never guessed that. She was over a few weeks ago after my daughters confirmation and I heard her tell my brother 'you'd be surprised who else isn't voting for him' and I didn't get a chance to chime in. According to my brother she never mentioned who she was talking about, but even he wasn't thinking it was our mom or uncle. That said, he mentioned our mom just a few days ago made some comments that surprised him in how she talked about Trump making him think that is who my aunt was talking about. The thing is, she's still posting facebook garbage that makes her look like a huge MAGA supporter. So, while years ago you had that voter that wouldn't say they'd vote for him but would.... I wonder if we're moving into a situation when previous Trump supporters won't vote for him, but don't necessarily want others to know they won't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 8 hours ago, ewsieg said: This is just me thinking aloud based on some anecdotal evidence Well gvien enough anecdotes, you eventually have a valid sample...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) 22 hours ago, ewsieg said: This is just me thinking aloud based on some anecdotal evidence as well as what I remember in terms of polls/results from 2016, 2020. If I remember correctly, Hillary was expected to easily beat Trump but lost. By 2020, Biden had an edge in the polls but everyone freaked out due to the 'they will vote for Trump, but they are afraid to tell anyone they will' factor that was believed to be the big reason for the inaccuracy of the 2016 elections. Trump did better than polls suggested, but not by the margin in 2016. My mom and one of her sisters and one of her brothers are the biggest Trump fans (or so I thought) around. And by Trump fans, they admit he's crooked, but it's a 'they are all crooked, at least he's honest about it' mentality. I just found out my aunt won't be voting for Trump. If you looked at her facebook feed you would have never guessed that. She was over a few weeks ago after my daughters confirmation and I heard her tell my brother 'you'd be surprised who else isn't voting for him' and I didn't get a chance to chime in. According to my brother she never mentioned who she was talking about, but even he wasn't thinking it was our mom or uncle. That said, he mentioned our mom just a few days ago made some comments that surprised him in how she talked about Trump making him think that is who my aunt was talking about. The thing is, she's still posting facebook garbage that makes her look like a huge MAGA supporter. So, while years ago you had that voter that wouldn't say they'd vote for him but would.... I wonder if we're moving into a situation when previous Trump supporters won't vote for him, but don't necessarily want others to know they won't. There's undoubtedly a real social component to outwardly projecting support for Trump in certain social circles or different parts of the country (I've seen it in my family as well). I also think it's a lot less socially acceptable to say that you support Biden as well... even when talking with people in my life who are more left leaning, because of his various issues (ie. age) and low approval numbers, it can become like walking on egg shells to even say positive things about his Presidency (and yes, particularly on getting legislation passed, there have been successes). When you combine that with Biden's job approval numbers, one can theorize a world where it's not nearly as socially unacceptable to support Trump in 2024 versus 2016 or that the whole "shy voter" theory really doesn't apply here. Or that if anything, it's a lot less socially acceptable to say you like Biden, particularly in red areas. Overall, I remain struck overall by the lack of energy on the ground.... granted I'm in a red county in a blue state, but I see more signs for local candidates or "Pritzker Sucks" signs than actual Trump paraphernalia. I know what gets projected on social media, but in real life, I don't know that the movement has the juice that it once did. Edited June 11 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 538's first post-Nate Silver model has Biden 53%, buoyed mostly by fundamentals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Looking like another overperformance by a Democrat. This is SE Ohio. This is Appalachia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 That district includes East Palastine. I'm wondering how much resentment toward any GOP laissez faire policies on regulating the environment and transportation may be playing a role there. It's also not just southeast OH. You have Youngstown in there, I believe. Pretty much the eastern strip of the state south of Cleveland/Akron. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Just now, Edman85 said: That district includes East Palastine. I'm wondering how much resentment toward any GOP laissez faire policies on regulating the environment and transportation may be playing a role there. It's also not just southeast OH. You have Youngstown in there, I believe. Pretty much the eastern strip of the state south of Cleveland/Akron. Youngstown is in there but only 29% of Mahoning County is reporting. There is still a lot of vote left from Youngstown. The Dem is way overperforming in all the counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Youngstown is in there but only 29% of Mahoning County is reporting. There is still a lot of vote left from Youngstown. The Dem is way overperforming in all the counties. Wasserman has seen enough to declare Russi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Yeah a lot closer than it should have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 He's actually on pace for about a 20 point overperformance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Rulli's margin probably comes down to performing slightly better in his State Senate seat (centered in Youngstown)... he only underperformed 15-20% in Mahoning and Columbiana, versus upwards up 30-35% in counties in the southern part of the district. It's a low turnout election, but man, this is not the kind of district you'd expect this to happen in even in a low turnout environment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 (edited) So, now they're mad because Hunter was acquitted? These guys don't want to legislate, they just want the rubes' $$$$ Read the entire thread, quite interesting and scary Edited June 12 by CMRivdogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Great news in cooling inflation this morning. My fear is inflation gets back close to normal by the end of year, nobody really notices, Trump wins and takes credit for it when people do notice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 On 6/11/2024 at 9:59 AM, Motown Bombers said: That is probably a good thing, but it can be viewed two different ways. It could be that people are optimistic now or it could be MAGAs thinking that things will be better because Trump will be President a year from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Netnerd Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 37 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: That is probably a good thing, but it can be viewed two different ways. It could be that people are optimistic now or it could be MAGAs thinking that things will be better because Trump will be President a year from now. Never let facts get in the way of a good spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 50 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: That is probably a good thing, but it can be viewed two different ways. It could be that people are optimistic now or it could be MAGAs thinking that things will be better because Trump will be President a year from now. Or Democrats could be pessimistic thinking Trump will be president a year from now canceling out the MAGAs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 13 minutes ago, Netnerd said: Never let facts get in the way of a good spin. What facts? He didn’t provide a single fact. He literally provided a spin on the facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 39 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Or Democrats could be pessimistic thinking Trump will be president a year from now canceling out the MAGAs. That is possible, although it seems that core supporters tend to be positive about their candidate's chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 39 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: What facts? He didn’t provide a single fact. He literally provided a spin on the facts. I didn't spin it at all. I gave you two possible interpretations - one positive and one negative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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