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2024 Presidential Election thread


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9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

538 has Biden as the favorite, so I'm not sure where this certainly the favorite to win comes from. 

Whether you're more a fan of 538 or Nate's aggregator, the idea is that Trump is still in a band between 48ish-75%. Which last I checked, isn't 99%. Yet his campaign is acting like it's 99%.

Reminds me of the old Fritz Hollings quote: "There's only two ways to run for public office: one is unopposed, the other is scared." I think he's favored to win at this point, but his campaign is running a little overconfident right now IMO

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3 hours ago, 1776 said:

I’ve been very impressed at how Kamala was able to navigate such a difficult assignment. 😉 

A bit easier when people aren't trying to hang you.

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3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Whether you're more a fan of 538 or Nate's aggregator, the idea is that Trump is still in a band between 48ish-75%. Which last I checked, isn't 99%. Yet his campaign is acting like it's 99%.

Reminds me of the old Fritz Hollings quote: "There's only two ways to run for public office: one is unopposed, the other is scared." I think he's favored to win at this point, but his campaign is running a little overconfident right now IMO

About a month ago.  I thought it was 50/50.  Right now, it certainly seems like Trump is the favorite and I don't think the problems surrounded Biden are going away.  It's never over when you've got a loose cannon like Trump as one of the candidates, but I am not optimistic at the moment.  I think it's more like 65/35 now.    

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Whether you're more a fan of 538 or Nate's aggregator, the idea is that Trump is still in a band between 48ish-75%. Which last I checked, isn't 99%. Yet his campaign is acting like it's 99%.

Reminds me of the old Fritz Hollings quote: "There's only two ways to run for public office: one is unopposed, the other is scared." I think he's favored to win at this point, but his campaign is running a little overconfident right now IMO

They are ALWAYS over confident.  Even when they lose, they still think they won.  

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38 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Another way to think about this: Trump picked Pence in 2016 at a time when his support with evangelical voters was shaky at best. Which was a demographic that he absolutely needed in order to win. One case where it probably did help picking one particular candidate over another.

Trump's pick of Vance here will bring no one in that wasn't already in the tent when the day started.

He's certainly the favorite to win the election, but not so much so according to the aggregators that he shouldn't have interest in trying to make appeals *beyond* the base. Maybe I'm wrong, but this signals to me that he doesn't think he needs to do that. Which reeks of some overconfidence.

I believe their thought is his Midwest Hillbilly background can help them in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.    They probably win the election if they can sweep these states.  

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10 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I believe their thought is his Midwest Hillbilly background can help them in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.    They probably win the election if they can sweep these states.  

Could be, although Biden's issue in polling has been more about the cities and suburbs in each of these states (and concerns about turnout), and Vance (just looking at his political record) doesn't add anything for these people IMO

Turnout wise in rural areas, I have a hard time seeing it juice turnout more than Donald Trump already does.

Edited by mtutiger
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2 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Literally? I must have missed the news about an attempted hanging. Details?

Honest question: Are you a Jan6th denier? Do you recall a scaffold erected with chants of “hang Mike Pence”?

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I'm struggling to see the value of dj Vince on the ticket.  Does he make the coalition bigger or inspire anyone who wasn't going to vote for Slump anyways?

Is it his money?

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