Motor City Sonics Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 48 minutes ago, oblong said: I can laugh and be scare ****less at that post at the same time, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Harris/Walz with a lot of momentum showing in the polls. Unclear so far what is just a news 'bump' and what is broader momentum, but they won't need to keep up this rate of movement for long to reverse previous assumptions about this election. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html What we've seen so far has been base consolidation, which seems like it could be lasting. The next test is gonna be with independent and swing voters. Reasons for optimism there, especially with the convention coming up. But the fall will be important too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 hours ago, pfife said: I buy it. I think it's also that they are really getting cooked right now and he's not really doing anything about it. I remember when everyone said he was the greatest counter puncher ever This is true, and thinking about it more, it's really strange that they aren't counter programming better. The other part is that, we are less than two weeks from the DNC... the most common refrain after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris was that the time between that point and Chicago was a race to define Kamala Harris. We are halfway between that point and he beginning of the convention, and unequivocally, Trump's campaign is losing that race. And with his schedule this week, is actively wasting time that could be used in that effort. It raises a ton of questions... I don't think it's purely campaign strategy, I'm sure Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita know what to do. But there's only so much you can do with a bad candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 8 minutes ago, mtutiger said: This is true, and thinking about it more, it's really strange that they aren't counter programming better. The other part is that, we are less than two weeks from the DNC... the most common refrain after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris was that the time between that point and Chicago was a race to define Kamala Harris. We are halfway between that point and he beginning of the convention, and unequivocally, Trump's campaign is losing that race. And with his schedule this week, is actively wasting time that could be used in that effort. It raises a ton of questions... I don't think it's purely campaign strategy, I'm sure Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita know what to do. But there's only so much you can do with a bad candidate. well said. I hadn't figured in the value of this specific time in defining her, I agree. Its all really fishy to me. Maybe even squirrely. Definitely weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Couple Hamasholes at the rally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 25 minutes ago, mtutiger said: This is true, and thinking about it more, it's really strange that they aren't counter programming better. The other part is that, we are less than two weeks from the DNC... the most common refrain after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris was that the time between that point and Chicago was a race to define Kamala Harris. We are halfway between that point and he beginning of the convention, and unequivocally, Trump's campaign is losing that race. And with his schedule this week, is actively wasting time that could be used in that effort. It raises a ton of questions... I don't think it's purely campaign strategy, I'm sure Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita know what to do. But there's only so much you can do with a bad candidate. Trump has never been much in the way of a good candidate. All he has ever done is do friendly territory rallies and post on social media. There is no coherent world or economic view. So it worked against Hillary when he was a new thing, but didn't against Biden (even when he had an incumbent's natural advantage) so it really should not be enough against Harris either. Plus it's all old hat now. I mean how does he campaign on any issue like immigration when he had 4 yrs to fix it himself and never even tried? He doesn't really learn or adapt - if anything his public repertoire of behaviors is shrinking. So it's basically up to his political advisors run a campaign in which the candidate is only a sometime participant. And since the Trump machine has laid waste to so many local GOP operations and chased away so much local political experience, you can only wonder what kind of ground game they will be able to mount anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 (edited) Poor fella thinks he beat Biden.... Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/07/trump-election-campaign/ Edited August 8 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: Couple Hamasholes at the rally. Since it's Michigan, she gave the death stare that the hardware store owner's wife gave in Home Improvement that I thought was funny 30 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: I mean how does he campaign on any issue like immigration when he had 4 yrs to fix it himself and never even tried? It's not even that he didn't try, although that's a valid point, it's the fact that he doesn't have any sort of message discipline. The campaign of course is producing ads, and they have generally been hitting Kamala on the areas that you would expect them to (ie. immigration, economy, etc). But when he has had public appearances, such as the Atlanta rally over the weekend, he not only didn't focus on or reinforce any of those issues but actively made life harder by, for instance, going after the wife of Governor Brian Kemp. To be clear, he wasn't clear and concise and rambled a lot in 2016 as well, but the degree to which he is consumed by grievance and articulate any sort of substantive message is markedly different when you compare to videos of him from that campaign. Edited August 8 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I hadn't considered this possibility as to why he's not out as much, although his schedule has been a lot lighter throughout this campaign regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Should take this play off Kristi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 5 minutes ago, romad1 said: Should take this play off Kristi LOL - Minneapolis is full of young adults from N.Dak, S.Dak, Neb. and for good reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I can't get the image out of my head of her daughter coming home from school, getting off the bus and asking "Where's Crickett?". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-project-2025-flight-heritage-foundation-president_n_66b40d3fe4b0e4caf7f51232 Trump in a photo getting on a plane with Project 2025 leader. He didn't know Jeffrey Epstein either, remember? Some think he has PTSD? I think you need to have a soul first. I just think he's a tired old man, he's exactly what he was accusing Biden of being and he just can't do it, so he's putting Shady Vance out there............stalking the Democratic nominee. Their entire strategy was BIDEN IS OLD. And "Poof" it's gone and he really doesn't know what to do - because attacking an older white man for being old is one thing, but he and his cronies are attacking Kamala, but they are making these attacks very personal and he's going to keep alienating women, especially with the abortion issue on the table. There's no energy behind him now. Kamala has Obamaesque energy, which we haven't seen in 16 years. It's the energy from young voters who just woke up. I think most people in the center understand there is no easy fix for the border and any proposal put forth by Biden/Harris will never be accepted because the Republican don't want to see them succeed at that. Trump had four years to fix it and he didn't and Mexico still hasn't paid for a wall. Edited August 8 by Motor City Sonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Immigration will still play in AZ and TX and with white nationalist trenders, but in most of the rest of the country, everyone is going to work at someplace that has a help wanted sign out. It's a lot easier to get Americans worked up about immigration when there is high unemployment or at least fear of it. When Trump ran his 1st campaign, unemployment had fallen, but the memory of high unemployment was fresh and wages were seriously depressed. It may still be the GOP's best issue, but it's not going the get the traction it did 8 years ago, esp with any voter aware enough to know that Trump personally killed a reform bill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 46 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: Some think he has PTSD? I think you need to have a soul first. Yeah - you have to have trauma to have PTSD. A narcissist isn't traumatized because someone near him died - Trump has barely even acknowledged Comperatore's death. And his own injury was pretty trivial. A person who though deeply about his own life might take stock after a near death chance, but do we think Trump thinks deeply about anything (other than money)? I could see him dropping the experience into the same bucket as a car running a red light and near missing you. Logically you process that you might have been killed but it's still not (for most people) particularly traumatic. I could see him having a perfectly reasonable increased reluctance to put himself at risk again, but I wouldn't call that PTSD because it's a completely rational fear that every national campaigner has to evaluate and keep evaluating when they run. I think in this case the Ocam's razor answer is that he doesn't have the stamina to campaign full time -- and knows that if he tries there will be too much campaign video fodder generated for the other side. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 (edited) 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Immigration will still play in AZ and TX and with white nationalist trenders, but in most of the rest of the country, everyone is going to work at someplace that has a help wanted sign out. It's a lot easier to get Americans worked up about immigration when there is high unemployment or at least fear of it. When Trump ran his 1st campaign, unemployment had fallen, but the memory of high unemployment was fresh and wages were seriously depressed. It may still be the GOP's best issue, but it's not going the get the traction it did 8 years ago, esp with any voter aware enough to know that Trump personally killed a reform bill. Part of the issue here is that, to the extent that there is anger about the economy as it pertains to inflation (easing now, but 2022 and 2023 were legit bad), voters have associated it far more with Biden. In all of this polling since he left the race, when the question of the economy shows up, it has tended to show a much closer split between Harris and Trump. In other words, Harris isn't being penalized for whatever uneasiness people still have with the economy, fair or otherwise. Immigration is still a bigger gap, though maybe slightly smaller than before. But it's not as salient as it was, particularly as border crossings have fallen steeply during 2024 and as the migrant busing issue (which once dominated the nightly news where I live) has faded into the background. Ultimately, the economy is where the rubber meets the road. And an environment where Trump is only slightly ahead and where he's not clobbering his opponent on the issue is one where he absolutely can lose. This all again goes back to the month between the dropout and the DNC... the clock is ticking, and paid media alone isn't a sufficient strategy for countering the earned media bonanza that Harris/Walz are now benefiting from IMO. Edited August 8 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 The latest Marquette poll has to be to some degree a reflection of the vibe or a 'sugar high' than the real state of play but...I like it a lot more than I did where things were in June 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Wish we could get an audience at a rally like this to sing this one like they did in the movie Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 47 minutes ago, romad1 said: The latest Marquette poll has to be to some degree a reflection of the vibe or a 'sugar high' than the real state of play but...I like it a lot more than I did where things were in June Trump the last two elections got 46%. That’s his ceiling so this poll seems accurate. I think it’s more the non Trump voters are consolidating around Harris. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Trump the last two elections got 46%. That’s his ceiling so this poll seems accurate. I think it’s more the non Trump voters are consolidating around Harris. Who are the RFKjr voters now? The people who hate animals and science? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Trump the last two elections got 46%. That’s his ceiling so this poll seems accurate. I think it’s more the non Trump voters are consolidating around Harris. Yeah, I've been wary about entirely attributing this purely to a honeymoon period given how much Biden's struggles in the polls prior to leaving the race were attributed simply to base enthusiasm issues. Don't mean this to downplay Harris' rollout, because it has more or less gone about as well as it could have given the circumstances, but if you eliminate the issues with base consolidation, what is happening now is kind of what you would expect to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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