2024 Presidential Election thread

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

As the prior poster, I was using "average" in a non-mathematical way to suggest that most high level politicians are not genuine.  I know that you know that! 

Are many people really "genuine" in public? Most people put on a mask to try to hide their antisocial and embarrassing traits in order to burnish their reputation and/or protect their brand. I'd bet anyone who doesn't put on such a mask would be regarded as being on the spectrum! 😄

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

His proposed policies are.  Who knows what will actually happen?  He says populist things to get votes, but he ultimately won't do anything that doesn't benefit himself in some way.  

Along those lines, maybe the best thing that could happen if he gets re-elected is for him to be diagnosed with a moderately slowly developing form of cancer. NIH would see its funding go through the roof.

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Are many people really "genuine" in public? Most people put on a mask to try to hide their antisocial and embarrassing traits in order to burnish their reputation and/or protect their brand. I'd bet anyone who doesn't put on such a mask would be regarded as being on the spectrum! 😄

It's a matter of extent.  Most people do put on somewhat of a mask in public, but some do it more than others.  Unfortunately, I am pretty much the same way all the time!

Edited September 8 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

As per the Constitution all spending bills must start in the House Of Representatives which is currently controlled by the Republicans.

This is true, but it's become a distinction without a difference given that all most all major spending bills in recent history emerge in the end from a House/Senate conference committee. The House can start a bill to fund DC dog catchers and it can turn into the annual omnibus appropriation bill by the time all is said and done.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Your median politician anyway!

Is your median politician a mean politician, or are some of them nice guys?

[CMRivdogs]

4 hours ago, The Ronz said:

Yep - you said it better than me.

I know prices aren't going down but something like gas may go down and Trump will get "credit."

I never thought the American public was this stupid but like George Carlin said "Think of how stupid the average person is and realize half of them are stupider than that."

Because they don't teach civics anymore. It's considered woke

[Sports_Freak]

Seeing a lot of Trump yard signs around here had me nervous. Then I see Mike Rogers signs there and I realize the people are just idiots 

[romad1]

another crime in the long list of crimes

 

[RatkoVarda]

someone above wrote, "We aren't gonna make it." are we getting dumber as a country? seems that way.

 

[mtutiger]

On 9/8/2024 at 8:45 AM, Edman85 said:

I think it is being underestimated how big of a deal inflation is to the masses and how that is successfully being pinned on the Democrats.

I don't think it's being underestimated, it seems pretty much like conventional wisdom.

[Motown Bombers]

Wasn’t inflation baked in the midterms that the Dems over performed?

[mtutiger]

23 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

His proposed policies are.  Who knows what will actually happen?  He says populist things to get votes, but he ultimately won't do anything that doesn't benefit himself in some way.  

He hardly has any core beliefs, but tariffs are the biggest, most consistent belief he has. And it's something he can do without Congress.

So I absolutely would not assume he's full of **** on that.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Wasn’t inflation baked in the midterms that the Dems over performed?

It was, and that was when actual inflation was higher than it is today (upwards of like 8% YOY versus 2-3ish% today). The issue is that a combination of other issues (ie. abortion / democracy related issues) as well as just terrible candidate quality mattered a lot too

I don't mean to pick on Ed, but "Dems are getting nailed on inflation" is about the most conventional wisdom take in politics today. I suspect a lot of Dem partisans wish it weren't the case, but that's different than assuming that it isn't a big challenge to Harris or her candidacy.

Edited September 9 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Wasn’t inflation baked in the midterms that the Dems over performed?

IDK - the public's perception of economic conditions lags a lot. Prices might have been stable for two years but you go to buy a car and then you get the sticker shock well after the fact. Surveys have also shown that people simply to do not see the raises they get during inflationary times as the counter balance to price rises. Universally people still see raises as relating to their personal worth and not as part of general economic re-adjustment. Just stupid human nature.

I could be wrong, maybe it will cut no water with people, but I think the dem's best case is don't try to minimize or deny inflation - make the case they it was factors beyond all control and then show that affected the whole world and that the US/Biden admin did better than any one else with it.

Edited September 9 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

He hardly has any core beliefs, but tariffs are the biggest, most consistent belief he has. And it's something he can do without Congress.

So I absolutely would not assume he's full of **** on that.

There is NO WAY Trump would not be getting his palm greased somehow for enacting tariffs. Otherwise why would he be so into it? He does literally nothing without getting paid in some way for it, whether it's in money, votes, access, something. I haven't figured out how that would work, but I'm sure it'll come to me at some point.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK - the public's perception of economic conditions lags a lot. Prices might have been stable for two years but you go to buy a car and then you get the sticker shock well after the fact. Surveys have also shown that people simply to do not see the raises they get during inflationary times as the counter balance to price rises. Universally people still see raises as relating to their personal worth and not as part of general economic re-adjustment. Just stupid human nature.

My sense in day to day life is that people are talking about inflation less today than they were two years ago at this time, FWIW.

It doesn't mean that it isn't still a big factor that people will consider as they vote, but I do think the environment is different as well.

Edited September 9 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It was, and that was when actual inflation was higher than it is today (upwards of like 8% YOY versus 2-3ish% today). The issue is that a combination of other issues (ie. abortion / democracy related issues) as well as just terrible candidate quality mattered a lot too

I don't mean to pick on Ed, but "Dems are getting nailed on inflation" is about the most conventional wisdom take in politics today. I suspect a lot of Dem partisans wish it weren't the case, but that's different than assuming that it isn't a big challenge to Harris or her candidacy.

I've been hearing of some movement on public perception of inflation here and there in the past few weeks, meaning, people are slowly coming around to it being more under control than the Republicans would like it to be.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

My sense in day to day life is that people are talking about inflation less today than they were two years ago at this time, FWIW.

The Fed rate cut could help a lot - not because it will make much economic impact on voters other than those house shopping, but because the cut will get a lot of press and the press will be that rates were cut because inflation is down.

[mtutiger]

53 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I've been hearing of some movement on public perception of inflation here and there in the past few weeks, meaning, people are slowly coming around to it being more under control than the Republicans would like it to be.

Gas prices are a huge factor.... nationally prices have been trending way down the past few weeks, and locally to the Midwest, some of the refining capacity issues (such as Exxon Joliet Refinery being down after the Chicagoland tornado outbreak a month or two ago) have subsided. Suspect that will continue for both seasonal and just market based reasons.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The Fed rate cut could help a lot - not because it will make much economic impact on voters other than those house shopping, but because the cut will get a lot of press and the press will be that rates were cut because inflation is down.

There have been news reports over the past couple of months about retailers cutting prices as well (ie. Walmart) as people have modified behaviors due to higher prices, some of that stuff appears to be showing up (personally noticing that when shopping).

Edited September 9 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Gas prices are a huge factor.... nationally prices have been trending way down the past few weeks, and locally to the Midwest, some of the refining capacity issues (such as Exxon Joliet Refinery being down after the Chicagoland tornado outbreak a month or two ago) have subsided. Suspect that will continue for both seasonal and just market based reasons.

At which point we will get treated to accusations that the Democrat Party is cheating by manipulating the price of gas so they can fool people into voting for them against their interests, or something along those lines. 

[gehringer_2]

53 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Gas prices are a huge factor.... nationally prices have been trending way down the past few weeks, and locally to the Midwest, some of the refining capacity issues (such as Exxon Joliet Refinery being down after the Chicagoland tornado outbreak a month or two ago) have subsided. Suspect that will continue for both seasonal and just market based reasons.

US Gasoline consumption peaked in 2017 (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus1&f=a)

The combination of fuel economy standards, EVs, remote work etc, will all continue to steadily push consumption down in the future. Refiner's will give up margin to keep refineries running at efficient capacity factors. It's not going to be a pretty future if you run oil refineries. That's why the "majors" have sold off so much refining capacity to independents recently, who will have no assets to go after for clean-up after they go bust and walk away from messes left behind.

[CMRivdogs]

Way to go Orlando

 

Edited September 9 by CMRivdogs

[CMRivdogs]

Try to convince me it's cinnamon candy
From Bluesky

https://bsky.app/profile/sethcotlar.bsky.social/post/3l3qgja734k24

At a David Sacks fundraiser yesterday featuring JD Vance and RFK, Jr that raised $3.5 million for the Trump campaign, the party favors were little bottles of red pills. Pretty weird.

Edited September 9 by CMRivdogs

[Motown Bombers]