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2024 Presidential Election thread


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On 9/13/2024 at 9:50 AM, chasfh said:

OK, this is a smart-sounding take and all, but how does Trump talking about Haitians eating dogs and cats help him achieve a net gain on Kamala, or limit his net loss against her, when it comes to voting?

Chas - I think this 1st sentence of your original post is what sent Lee and I in the wrong direction in our responses. I can read your post as either asking this question - which can be read to apply directly to Trump OR more specifically to the latter sentences and the second paragraph where you drive more  directly to PB as the subject. In my case my bias toward reading the question as about Trump is because I find that the more interesting question. Pete is an auxiliary messenger in the campaign, I don't take that much significance in analyzing his particular take because I would think the campaign sends people out there to cover as many ways to make the case as they can. For instance Walz is already out there making the "Trump is crazy" case in all his appearances.

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Healthy campaigns don't have the candidate starting romantic spats with 9/11 truthers, getting debate advice from Putin and Asad apologists, waste cycles on ridiculous stories about migrants and attack pop stars for their endorsements. 

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8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Chas - I think this 1st sentence of your original post is what sent Lee and I in the wrong direction in our responses

I've re-read it a few times, and I still think it's pretty clear the whole sentence is about Pete. I led with "smart-sounding take", which clearly references Pete, and then asked the question how Trump talking about this is supposed to achieve a net gain, which seems to me to be clearly about why does Pete think this, not why does Trump do this. After all, I didn't say "why does Trump think talking about". If I had, then I would be in total agreement with you. Instead, the entire sentence is about the smart-sounding take, not two completely different ideas separated by a sloppily-placed comma. The "but how does Trump talking about" part does the work of linking them together. Nevertheless, you're the person I'm supposed to have understand what I'm writing, so I'll consider striving to be less conversational in my writing and more exact in the service of hewing closer to crystal clarity.

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12 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

Day after day, alone on the hill, the man with the foolish grin....

Nobody wants to know him, they can see he's just a fool

 

Along with his VP candidate, who apparently spent his Saturday getting into Twitter fights with Zaid Jilani and Krystal Ball, the mantra is to always double down, double down.

They are responsible for this... And they should be held accountable 

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42 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The famous Ann Seltzer. Not a good poll for Trump. 

 

Have tried not to overread polls after 2020, but this is arguably the worst poll of the cycle for Donald Trump, I'd go as far to say.... Iowa is a state with high amount of white non-college voters and the topline suggests slippage with this group. Which also lends credence to the idea that her polling average in Wisconsin (around +3) may be real and not the phantom advantage we saw in previous election cycles.

It's also reflected a lot in some of the campaign choices she is making - her and Walz are spending time in places like Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre in PA, Wausau and Superior in WI.... they apparently must be seeing something internally that suggests they can shave some margin in rural areas, and this result suggests they may be onto something.

The final poll before the election tends to be the one that matters most and may yield a different result (that happened in 2020), but this one is a meaningful result regardless

Edited by mtutiger
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I know I saw this elsewhere on MTF.   A moment of free OSINT targeting for the twitter poster reveals the following:

  • Texas plates
  • 956 area code on billboards reveals "Area code 956 is a telephone area code in the North American Numbering Plan for the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley regions in the U.S. state of Texas. The numbering plan area includes the communities of Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo and South Padre Island. The area code was created May 25, 1997, in a split from area code 210. Wikipedia"
  • Sign for "Oil Can Harry's 10 minute oil change" which DDG search engine immediately sent me to an Oil Can Harry's gay bar in Austin, TX but refined search identified its a chain of oil change places in the Brownsville area. 
  • Canton Road sign.  Which appears to be Edinburg, TX (way to not spell that, TX).
  • In the comments they zero in on McAllen, TX which doesn't appear to be right because there are 76 gas stations in Mcallen, I can't find a Canton Road there.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I know I saw this elsewhere on MTF.   A moment of free OSINT targeting for the twitter poster reveals the following:

  • Texas plates
  • 956 area code on billboards reveals "Area code 956 is a telephone area code in the North American Numbering Plan for the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley regions in the U.S. state of Texas. The numbering plan area includes the communities of Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo and South Padre Island. The area code was created May 25, 1997, in a split from area code 210. Wikipedia"
  • Sign for "Oil Can Harry's 10 minute oil change" which DDG search engine immediately sent me to an Oil Can Harry's gay bar in Austin, TX but refined search identified its a chain of oil change places in the Brownsville area. 
  • Canton Road sign.  Which appears to be Edinburg, TX (way to not spell that, TX).
  • In the comments they zero in on McAllen, TX which doesn't appear to be right because there are 76 gas stations in Mcallen, I can't find a Canton Road there.

 

 

Pretty sure this is Edinburg. Go to Google streetview of US-281 south of Canton Road facing north and you can see the Best Western to the right, Oil Can Harry's to the right, and the KFC and La Rose ahead on the left. The gas station is different, but the Google Streetview was in June 2022. You can also see in the streetview on the NE corner the sign that says daily drink specials. I even was able to match up the phone numbers.

image.thumb.png.37d9c91b256b9fa10bbc2f950a40f086.png

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14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

 

Doesn't matter if it's factually wrong,  they keep repeating it until it becomes true to some.   Hopefully that happens only the people already voting for them.    This is the **** they are going to keep doing.  

But I tell you what - this douchebag keeps telling falsehoods about Ohio, he's going to put his own state in play.   There will be a backlash. 

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4 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Doesn't matter if it's factually wrong,  they keep repeating it until it becomes true to some.   Hopefully that happens only the people already voting for them.    This is the **** they are going to keep doing.  

But I tell you what - this douchebag keeps telling falsehoods about Ohio, he's going to put his own state in play.   There will be a backlash. 

After seeing Vance and all this oppo come out on him, I wouldn't be taking any campaign advice from Tim Ryan. 

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