Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 5 minutes ago, Edman85 said: That was indeed good. I listened this morning. Which brings me to this tangential point. The NYTimes Audio paywall has not seemed to hit Pocketcasts yet. the only place I might go a little further than Ezra is in stressing harder that the continuing decay of his inhibition is very likely associated with an ongoing process of frontal lobe function loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: all you can say is that if this is true, the mismatch between their surveying and the elections poll surveys is nothing short of massive because if Trump losses 25% of Haley's vote I see no way the election is actually close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: all you can say is that if this is true, the mismatch between their surveying and the elections poll surveys is nothing short of massive because if Trump losses 25% of Haley's vote I see no way the election is actually close. I think pollsters are terrified of predicting a big Harris win, and I think there is a bit of herding going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 I have seen a LOT of Harris signs in my area this election season. Some trump signs, but waaaay fewer than 4 years ago. (& hardly ever saw Biden signs 4years ago. This particular Harris sign message , though, is my favorite. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 2 minutes ago, smr-nj said: I have seen a LOT of Harris signs in my area this election season. Some trump signs, but waaaay fewer than 4 years ago. (& hardly ever saw Biden signs 4years ago. This particular Harris sign message , though, is my favorite. I noticed some Trump signs driving through the metro Detroit area this weekend. I saw a lot of Harris signs everywhere too. The confidence of the Harris signage was similar to the above. Feeling fairly confident based on body language of the two candidates and campaigns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Overheard Canadian kids in Windsor talking about Trump like a mental patient. “You aren’t wrong fellas” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOPS Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Probably not worth much because it's harder for Americans to see and bet than in past elections but Paddy Power had Harris almost sure to win the popular vote $50 wins $19 but Trump favored to win the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOPS Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 It is nice to take a week or two days away from US news in even year Octobers though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: I think pollsters are terrified of predicting a big Harris win, and I think there is a bit of herding going on. Why would they be terrified? If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 20 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I do remember that confidence in 2012, but Republicans always talk confidently about their chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why would they be terrified? If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right. I suppose in part because Trump being Trump, if he wins after a big poll miss they are afraid he'll find some way to target the pollsters. Or maybe, and I think this is more likely, the pollsters themselves are very uncertain of their data, so the best hedge is to keep adjusting the models to keep it near enough to even that a win will be within margin of error no matter which way it goes. Edited October 22 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint. RCP had Obama at +0.7 in the polls and that was before the right started manipulating the averages with bogus polls. Frankly, the polling from legit pollsters was worse for Obama than Harris. Edited October 22 by Motown Bombers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Why would they be terrified? If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right. I can't square that either. What good does it to them to be "wrong" even if that was their intent for whatever reason, either to be overly cautious or b/c they were paid to say something different. Is falling back on the margin of error enough of an incentive to not worry about. If PAC goes to a polling firm with explicit instructions to convey a certain outcome, then why would the poll even bothering conducting it? Just make up the responses and don't bother contacting anybody. If the election were not as close as the pollsters suggest then why would Harris be all over the swing states? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 11 minutes ago, oblong said: I can't square that either. What good does it to them to be "wrong" even if that was their intent for whatever reason, either to be overly cautious or b/c they were paid to say something different. Is falling back on the margin of error enough of an incentive to not worry about. If PAC goes to a polling firm with explicit instructions to convey a certain outcome, then why would the poll even bothering conducting it? Just make up the responses and don't bother contacting anybody. If the election were not as close as the pollsters suggest then why would Harris be all over the swing states? She’s going to Texas. Pollsters don’t want to be the one to underestimate Trump and are herding to the results of every other poll. I can’t see how down ballot Dems lead in every swing state, minus Georgia, and yet Trump could win them all. I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 25 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: She’s going to Texas. Pollsters don’t want to be the one to underestimate Trump and are herding to the results of every other poll. I can’t see how down ballot Dems lead in every swing state, minus Georgia, and yet Trump could win them all. I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. My gut tells me you are correct but that’s not based on any data. Just what I see in terms of enthusiasm and all that. But I had those feelings in 2012 thinking Romney would win. I don’t trust myself. At game 4 of the ALDS, I’m not making this up, my friend texted me in the 7th asking if I was there. When I said yes he told me he thought they would do it. I replied “me too” and not a minute later Frye hit a 2 run HR. I don’t like it when I think something is going to turn out. I’m usually wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 JHC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 47 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I would like to meet the Trump-Slotkin voter. That's what stands out to me as well. The one reasonable argument you could make for Biden voters to fall away from Harris would be the misogyny angle, but the Michigan numbers fly in the face of that as well, why would that anti woman voter support Slotkin? You have to posit a voter with a very particular misogynist angle who thinks a woman senator is OK but not a woman Pres. Possible, but Occam's razor pushes hard in the other direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Why would they be terrified? If they were confident in a Harris landslide, they would want to predict it so they could bask in the glory when they got it right. Underestimating Trump for the third election cycle in a row would be an existential crisis for the industry, particularly as pollsters (as Nate Cohn has documented in various pieces, for instance) have gone to great lengths to try to fix whatever errors they think may or may not have been present. And particularly as response rates and getting representative samples are getting worse and worse. This isn't even getting into the the fact that there is less high quality state polling this year than in previous cycles (once again, well documented)... which stands as evidence on it's own as well. I don't know what will happen, we will have to see how it works out in a couple of weeks, maybe they are bang on.... but I'm not going to ignore the human psychology at play here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: Silver had Obama >90 % in 2012. I can't find his precise model and the polling input, but I can guarantee this year and 2012 aren't similar from a polling standpoint. I'd have to put myself back in that place in time, but Romney's runway from an EC standpoint was a lot narrower than what Trump has in present day IIRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 (edited) 10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: That's what stands out to me as well. The one reasonable argument you could make for Biden voters to fall away from Harris would be the misogyny angle, but the Michigan numbers fly in the face of that as well, why would that anti woman voter support Slotkin? You have to posit a voter with a very particular misogynist angle who thinks a woman senator is OK but not a woman Pres. Possible, but Occam's razor pushes hard in the other direction. My only theory (probably true to an extent) is that there's voters who will vote for Trump and then leave the rest of the ticket blank, resulting in undervotes for the other candidates. North Carolina could be a candidate for that this year too, with Mark Robinson being the Gov candidate. Not sure how that gets captured in polling though.... Edited October 22 by mtutiger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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