2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

  On 10/25/2024 at 12:56 PM, chasfh said:

This is a good October surprise.

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I think a lot of folks see these endorsements and conclude that they don't mean anything and won't change any minds.... maybe to a large extent, that's true, but I do think it's fair to take it as evidence of what their constituents might do versus what they did in previous elections.

[Motown Bombers]

I can’t accept that all these republicans are coming forward in support of Harris and yet Trump is supposed to be stronger than he was the past two elections?

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 2:24 AM, mtutiger said:

The Upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota) is surprisingly blue, even in some of the red areas and areas where Trump has excelled electorally since coming down the escalator. 

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I don’t know about northern Illinois and Iowa, but definitely northern Wisconsin and Minnesota. I think it’s because the area was settled mainly by Scandinavians instead of Scots Irish.

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 11:24 AM, Tiger337 said:

Yes, I thnk that Trump has probably sexually assaulted many women, but posters like Krassenstein are not believable and only weaken the case against Trump.  

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It won’t move the needle in either direction one iota. The opinions are calcified.

Also, the woman is, what, 40? People are going to look at this and say, “Trump groped a full-grown 40-year-old woman? And I’m supposed to be uniquely horrified by that?”

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 12:57 PM, chasfh said:

Not on the roller coaster, so, not paying attention.

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"Bad data for my preferred candidate, so not paying attention"

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:09 PM, Tiger337 said:

"Bad data for my preferred candidate, so not paying attention"

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Is that supposed to be me talking?

[mtutiger]

  On 10/25/2024 at 12:58 PM, Motown Bombers said:

The NYT has been putting out some funky polls this cycle. 

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I think the fact that they have her improving by 1% with college whites and 6% with non-college whites while performing overall worse is something. At the very highest level, I think it comes down to assumptions about turnout with minority and younger voters; they see an older whiter electorate which, even with gains with whites across education level by Harris, would still benefit Trump.

IDK how much I ultimately believe that, but it's possible I suppose. It would also explain why she looks stronger in MI/PA/WI than she does in the south and southwest states.

Edited October 25, 2024 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:00 PM, Motown Bombers said:

I can’t accept that all these republicans are coming forward in support of Harris and yet Trump is supposed to be stronger than he was the past two elections?

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Young men love Trump and they probaby didn't vote in the last election.  

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:10 PM, chasfh said:

Is that supposed to be me talking?

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This forum in general.  

[Motown Bombers]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:10 PM, Tiger337 said:

Young men love Trump and they probaby didn't vote in the last election.  

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Young women love Harris and are more motivated to vote. 

[pfife]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:12 PM, Tiger337 said:

This forum in general.  

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Its actually 1 or 2 posters 

[mtutiger]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:10 PM, Tiger337 said:

Young men love Trump and they probaby didn't vote in the last election.  

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Youth polling (from Harvard/IOP) has suggested that younger women will improve on 2020 for Harris, so that could ultimately end up washing out. 

It's for sure a longer term problem though.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:10 PM, Tiger337 said:

Young men love Trump and they probaby didn't vote in the last election.  

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Yeah, that's something to be worried about. Young men, who are largely single and less educated than their women peers, seem to be drifting towards Trump. 

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:12 PM, Tiger337 said:

This forum in general.  

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OK, forgive me, because since you responded directly to me, it initially looked as though you were aping me here. I’ve posted multiple times that I’m not paying to polling numbers, and in all my posts here, I don’t think I’ve shared a poll even once.

[mtutiger]

Inevitably expect to be told I'm wrong on this, but if we are talking about young male's drift toward Trump and how it impacts the youth vote as a whole, you just cannot ignore the other side of the coin (young female voters).

Sociologically, I think it's a problem that needs to be addressed ASAP.... as it pertains to this specific election? I'd obviously rather they do better, but it's just not clear at this point.

Edited October 25, 2024 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:19 PM, mtutiger said:

Inevitably expect to be told I'm wrong on this, but if we are talking about young male's drift toward Trump and how it impacts the youth vote as a whole, you just cannot ignore the other side of the coin (female voters).

Sociologically, I think it's a problem.... as it pertains to this specific election? I'd obviously rather they do better, but it's just not clear at this point.

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Because we always have to talk about what the Dems do wrong and how they have to win back voters. Republicans are bleeding college educated voters which used to be the base of the party. Oakland County used to be the Republican base in Michigan. 

[romad1]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:19 PM, mtutiger said:

Inevitably expect to be told I'm wrong on this, but if we are talking about young male's drift toward Trump and how it impacts the youth vote as a whole, you just cannot ignore the other side of the coin (young female voters).

Sociologically, I think it's a problem that needs to be addressed ASAP.... as it pertains to this specific election? I'd obviously rather they do better, but it's just not clear at this point.

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I seriously doubt black vote changes in any meaningful way from previous African American on the ballot election in 2012.    Whatever nonsense Trump campaign is trying to sell about their successful outreach. 

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 12:58 PM, mtutiger said:

I think a lot of folks see these endorsements and conclude that they don't mean anything and won't change any minds.... maybe to a large extent, that's true, but I do think it's fair to take it as evidence of what their constituents might do versus what they did in previous elections.

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I think there are people who have been in the red hat camp for eight years who’ve been rethinking their position, and something like this might help give them permission to peel off from MAGA. It won’t be any more than a marginal number of people, and it will make less of a difference in Oklahoma than in any other state, but it could help as another data point for such people in swing states who hear about this, and it could make a difference there. Not every 2x-Trump voter has the MAGA worm in their brain.

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:17 PM, chasfh said:

OK, forgive me, because since you responded directly to me, it initially looked as though you were aping me here. I’ve posted multiple times that I’m not paying to polling numbers, and in all my posts here, I don’t think I’ve shared a poll even once.

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Yes, I've noticed that you are consistnt in not trusting polls.  I probably shouldn't have used you as an example.  

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:21 PM, romad1 said:

I seriously doubt black vote changes in any meaningful way from previous African American on the ballot election in 2012.    Whatever nonsense Trump campaign is trying to sell about their successful outreach. 

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I am confident that Blacks know that neither side gives a **** about them and that they'll continue to vote for the side which is not openly hostile.  The problem there is getting them to vote at all.  

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:23 PM, Tiger337 said:

Yes, I've noticed that you are consistnt in not trusting polls.  I probably shouldn't have used you as an example.  

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I think the closest I’ve come to ratifying polls posted here is when people would post a year or more out that Biden was up by some number of points on Trump, and I would reply with something like, “Quick! Call the election for today!”

[mtutiger]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:23 PM, Tiger337 said:

Yes, I've noticed that you are consistnt in not trusting polls.  I probably shouldn't have used you as an example.  

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After seeing what took place in 2020, I don't think anybody should put too much trust into any poll. Regardless of whether it tells you what you want to hear or doesn't

[Motown Bombers]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:27 PM, Tiger337 said:

I am confident that Blacks know that neither side gives a **** about them and that they'll continue to vote for the side which is not openly hostile.  The problem there is getting them to vote at all.  

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More both sides bull****. 

[Tiger337]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:28 PM, Motown Bombers said:

More both sides bull****. 

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I'm on your side Cecil.  Just not so fanatic.  

[chasfh]

  On 10/25/2024 at 1:27 PM, Tiger337 said:

I am confident that Blacks know that neither side gives a **** about them and that they'll continue to vote for the side which is not openly hostile.  The problem there is getting them to vote at all.  

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The motivations of black voters is rich and complex, but one thing I’m pretty confident of is that they have no interest in voting just to blow up the system, as too many white voters would like. Black people know they need a strong government to protect them from the freewheeling, unchecked racial apartheid and vigilantism that characterized the first 350 years of white rule on this continent.