2024 Presidential Election thread

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

Socialism and Communism are not forms of government, but economic systems. 

Depends on how much you want to abstract. You certainly can define a communist economy in isolation from governance, but we do get "Dictatorship of the Proletariat" and the Party as the "Vanguard of the Proletariat" as the adjunct to creating the communist economy directly  from Marx and Lenin so the tie has been there in practice. 

I heard a lecture by Kevin Rudd, ex-PM of Australia, who is also actually a China scholar and for example his take on Xi is that he has a very rigorous ideological reading of the requirements of Socialism and it's that ideological framework which is his justification for bringing the Party back into a more dominant role in management the Chinese economy ( and a more suppressive role in everything else!).

Edited October 31, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Biff Mayhem]

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

If that happens it will because he suddenly became popular for all the asinine things he does and women forgot it was election day. 

Statistically, women will outvote men by a good margin and unless they don’t, he can’t win.

[ben9753]

20 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

Why are you so confident? I have no idea who’s going to win. The only thing I know is that if Trump doesn’t win it’s going to get ugly. He wont concede and his minions will do everything they can to install him as president illegally. I have no doubt about that. If I’m wrong I’ll come back and quote this post. 

Edited November 1, 2024 by ben9753

[Edman85]

Me, dressed as Mongo tonight, if I come across any horse costumes decked in MAGA gear.

[Sports_Freak]

5 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I unfollowed Jed because he posted too much stupid stuff on Twitter.  He is nothing like BST at all.  BST was witty.  He also never posted in the Tigers forum and JED rambles about the Tigers constantly.  Not the same person.  

Oh yeah, I saw that guy on Twitter this summer. He was asking for donations for a trip to Detroit to see the Tigers.

[Sports_Freak]

32 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

Yeah, if he cheats, he'll win. And I'm sure he has plans to cheat. Take it to his Supreme Court and they'll rule for him. But he's going to lose the popular vote, again.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Less than a week until the election and you would expect Trump to be campaigning in a swing state right? No, he’s currently in New Mexico and claiming he won it. Twice. 

He's mobilizing them to move on Albuquerque when it's time.

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, smr-nj said:

I think the only thing I can say with some certainty is that the voting numbers are, for sure, Going to be higher than they were in 2020.
Some part of me says substantially higher.

And, my gut feeling is just that this plays better for the Harris side of the equation. We’ll see.

It's why MAGA tries so hard to suppress the votes in so many states. They know that huge turnout benefits the democrats. But even if Trump loses by 10 million votes, he'll claim it was rigged. The guy really doesn't wanna go to prison, where he belongs.

[Tiger337]

44 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

Thanks for the info.  Nobody needs to vote now, since it's been determined already.  That's disappointing.

[MichiganCardinal]

39 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

So I have bad news for all of you: Trump will win the Presidency. I’m not saying that because I’m Maga or a Trumper. I’m just telling you that Trump is going to win.  I’m not saying that to troll anyone or cause dissent. I’m saying it because it’s going to happen. 
 

Now if I’m wrong, I’ll come back, quote this post and say I was wrong. But that won’t be necessary because Trump will be 47. 

I am this confident for the exact opposite result.

Republicans have won ONE popular vote since 1988. Why is the third Trump ballot going to be different? People don’t like him. If enough people in the right states vote, Harris will win. And unless people are living under a rock, they’ll be voting. They already are.

There are a ton of other more sophisticated reasons why I think she’ll win, but that’s the most basic and fundamental.

[Tiger337]

27 minutes ago, ben9753 said:

Why are you so confident? I have no idea who’s going to win. The only thing I know is that if Trump doesn’t win it’s going to get ugly. He wont concede and his minions will do everything they can to install him as president illegally. I have no doubt about that. If I’m wrong I’ll come back and quote this post. 

Because he is MAGA.  Every MAGA without exception thinks he is going to win.  They thought that in 2020 too.  

Like you, I really don't know who's going to win.  I am expecting a close election and a huge **** show dragging into 2025.   

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Because he is MAGA.  Every MAGA without exception thinks he is going to win.  They thought that in 2020 too.  

I'll take Biff at his word that it isn't because he's MAGA... but the overall assuredness of the MAGAs this time around gives me Hillary 2016 vibes. 

Edited November 1, 2024 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'll take Biff at his word that it isn't because he's MAGA... but the overall assuredness of the MAGAs this time around gives me Hillary 2016 vibes. 

I don't think he's trolling, but all Trump supporters ALWAYS think he's going to win.  

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'll take Biff at his word that it isn't because he's MAGA... but the overall assuredness of the MAGAs this time around gives me Hillary 2016 vibes. 

Case in point...

One campaign is leaking five days before the election, one isn't.

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think he's trolling, but all Trump supporters ALWAYS think he's going to win.  

Sure, but Trump's supporters tout polls (and betting markets) to back their confidence way more than they ever did before.... at the expense of every other factor (whether it be fundraising or crowd sizes or whatever).

That's materially different.... and gives me Hillary 2016 vibes. I'm not saying one way or another that he will lose, it's just what I'm seeing.

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Sure, but Trump's supporters tout polls (and betting markets) to back their confidence way more than they ever did before.... at the expense of every other factor (whether it be fundraising or crowd sizes or whatever).

That's materially different.... and gives me Hillary 2016 vibes. I'm not saying one way or another that he will lose, it's just what I'm seeing.

The polls indicate that it will be a close election. 

I don't think betting markets are good indicator anymore since I've read that they are being driven by a small number of wealthy betters.  The biggest one lives in France.  

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The polls indicate that it will be a close election. 

The aggregators have Trump as the favorite right now, generally in the range of 55% favored... That's never happened before this late in an election. And having been on the other side of this in 2016 (when Hillary was a 70% favorite), I just see a lot of the same overconfidence despite it being closer based on today's models

It's a coin flip, full stop. But it doesn't seem like most Trump voters treat it that way

Edited November 1, 2024 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The aggregators have Trump as the favorite right now, generally in the range of 55% favored... That's never happened before this late in an election. And having been on the other side of this in 2016 (when Hillary was a 70% favorite), I just see a lot of the same overconfidence despite it being closer based on today's models

It's a coin flip, full stop. But it doesn't seem like most Trump voters treat it that way

55% favorite is not big at all.  70% was not even that big and people were wrong to assume that she had it wrapped up.  It is concerning that Trump has never been in the lead at this point.  In fact, he has been down substantially before the last two elections and he outperformed the polls.  It's a sample size of two though, so there is no reason to assume that the trend will continue.

On the other hand, those who are saying that Harris will win because Biden won in 2020 and nobody will switch from Biden/Harris to Trump is also a weak assumption.  I personally know people that are switching.  A lot of people blame Biden for a bad economy (even though it's pretty good right now) and they see Harris as an extension of Biden.  Others may not want to vote for Harris because she's a woman or because they think she is too radical (the reason why one of my friends is switching).   

 

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The aggregators have Trump as the favorite right now, generally in the range of 55% favored... That's never happened before this late in an election. And having been on the other side of this in 2016 (when Hillary was a 70% favorite), I just see a lot of the same overconfidence despite it being closer based on today's models

It's a coin flip, full stop. But it doesn't seem like most Trump voters treat it that way

These aggregators also use close to 100 right wing polls that have been released to mess with the averages.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

On the other hand, those who are saying that Harris will win because Biden won in 2020 and nobody will switch from Biden/Harris to Trump is also a weak assumption.  

I've never heard anyone make this argument. Not once.

[Motown Bombers]

I've never seen as many Republicans come out in support of a Democrat, and yet I'm supposed to believe he's more popular the third time around. 

[Tiger337]

Just now, mtutiger said:

I've never heard anyone make this argument. Not once.

I have seen that argument made here by mutiple posters here.  Not quite as strong as I just said it, but I have seen many posts stating that there will be more people switching from Trump to Harris than the other way around.  I would not assume that.   

[Motown Bombers]

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen that argument made here by mutiple posters here.  Not quite as strong as I just said it, but I have seen many posts stating that there will be more people switching from Trump to Harris than the other way around.  I would not assume that.   

Way more are going to switch from Trump to Harris. That's based on the fact that dozens of Republicans have supported Harris, polling on early voting shows the crossover, the Harris campaign has made an effort to flip those voters, Trump is underwater in approval rating, and enthusiasm among Democrats is the highest its been since 2008.