2024 Presidential Election thread

[pfife]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen that argument made here by mutiple posters here.  Not quite as strong as I just said it, but I have seen many posts stating that there will be more people switching from Trump to Harris than the other way around.  I would not assume that.   

I agree that I've seen it from multiple posters here.  It happened yesterday afternoon even

[pfife]

If you listen to C-Span 1 morning you'll hear a number of people say they switched in exactly that way and it's all about immigration or gas prices.  Or they're lying. 

Edited November 1, 2024 by pfife

[MichiganCardinal]

There is not one logical reason Trump will win this election. Breaking away from the eyes glued to the polls that are seemingly changing by the hour, a couple notes:

1. Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign. Better than Biden's in 2020, and head and shoulders above Clinton's in 2016. She has raised millions more than Trump, has inspired the youth vote from the second she became the candidate, and from the very beginning has had the infrastructure, the political operatives, and the political chops on her side to win a major American election. From a political standpoint, she does everything right. The only error I have seen as I became a more active engager in the last month was Biden's boneheaded comment calling Trump supporters garbage. Stupid comment on the same vein as "deplorables" was, but hardly James Comey level October surprise. Lucky for Harris nonetheless, she's on the ticket and not Biden.

2. On the other hand, Trump is a absolute dumpster fire. He's in New Mexico five days before the election. There is no rhyme or reason to anything he's done. Compared to Biden's "garbage" gaffe, Trump's Puerto Rico fiasco was 10x worse. He doesn't know what he's doing, and those around him are either too incompetent or too afraid to speak up and tell him.

3. By every standard that has mattered in modern day elections, Trump is the worst major party political candidate of all time. He doesn't add voters to his base. He doesn't even try. He just relies on his base. The same base of which its most fervent supporters - who traveled to DC and stormed the Capital - are now imprisoned. Can you imagine Trump compromising, or reaching across the aisle, or doing anything other than fear mongering?

4. In a continuation of the above, while I understand that Trump's candidacy has always defied logic, whatever magic he possessed in 2016 has run out. In 2016, it was novel. His schtick, a "successful" businessman with a catchy MAGA phrase who was going to "drain the swamp" and treat the US Government like a business, it all appealed to a lot of everyday people who were disenfranchised with the Democratic Party (particularly the so-called "establishment" that they saw of Hillary Clinton), and who had been told for eight years by the Republican Party that the Democrats were coming for their children and that Obama was a Muslim. In 2020, there was a redemption tour. He was an incumbent president who sold himself as a war time president (COVID) in a time when it was hard for Democrats to vote because of an ongoing pandemic. And he still lost. And then he led an attack on democracy the likes of which have never been seen domestically. In 2024, it's old. People are tired. People want him to go away.

5. People may not like Harris, but they don't hate her. Outside the never growing base of Trump supporters, people legitimately hate Trump. The general public might prefer Biden, or Buttigieg, or Warren, or Obama, or even Haley. But Harris is not Trump and so she is getting votes for that alone. When you talk about motivating the vote, hate for Trump is an easy one in 2024.

6. Turnout is going to be an all time high. There's no pandemic, while early voting and mail-in voting is more accessible than ever before. Turnout has always favored the Democratic party.

I can point at polls and fear monger, but the polls don't make sense. There were warning signs in 2016. There are none now. Trump is old, washed up, a disgrace, a felon. He lost in 2020 and has only gotten worse, while the Dems candidate has gotten better. Trump is running only to keep himself out of prison. He won't win.

[Motown Bombers]

[romad1]

The three jewish women commercial being run by the Republican Jewish Coalition is hilarious.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I have seen that argument made here by mutiple posters here.  Not quite as strong as I just said it, but I have seen many posts stating that there will be more people switching from Trump to Harris than the other way around.  I would not assume that.   

By that same token, would you be surprised by that either?

I've seen posts on this board stating that it's ridiculous to suggest that there are Rs who might vote for Harris when I know a few IRL.

[romad1]

This Jets Texans football game is a manifestation of what an RFK Jr. oversight of the FDA and HHS would be like.

I can see the logic of not having vaccines because we need to rapidly depopulate the planet to allow the billionaires more freedom of action.

Edited November 1, 2024 by romad1

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

By that same token, would you be surprised by that either?

I've seen posts on this board stating that it's ridiculous to suggest that there are Rs who might vote for Harris when I know a few IRL.

Off the top of my head, **** Cheney, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Jeff Flake, Olivia Troye, Stephanie Grisham, Anthony Scaramucci, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Cassidy Hutchinson, Sarah Matthews, Alyssa Farrah, Susan Molinari, and the state senator in Wisconsin whose name I forgot. 

*edit* how could I forget Fred Upton. 

Edited November 1, 2024 by Motown Bombers

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

There is not one logical reason Trump will win this election. Breaking away from the eyes glued to the polls that are seemingly changing by the hour, a couple notes:

1. Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign. Better than Biden's in 2020, and head and shoulders above Clinton's in 2016. She has raised millions more than Trump, has inspired the youth vote from the second she became the candidate, and from the very beginning has had the infrastructure, the political operatives, and the political chops on her side to win a major American election. From a political standpoint, she does everything right. The only error I have seen as I became a more active engager in the last month was Biden's boneheaded comment calling Trump supporters garbage. Stupid comment on the same vein as "deplorables" was, but hardly James Comey level October surprise. Lucky for Harris nonetheless, she's on the ticket and not Biden.

2. On the other hand, Trump is a absolute dumpster fire. He's in New Mexico five days before the election. There is no rhyme or reason to anything he's done. Compared to Biden's "garbage" gaffe, Trump's Puerto Rico fiasco was 10x worse. He doesn't know what he's doing, and those around him are either too incompetent or too afraid to speak up and tell him.

3. By every standard that has mattered in modern day elections, Trump is the worst major party political candidate of all time. He doesn't add voters to his base. He doesn't even try. He just relies on his base. The same base of which its most fervent supporters - who traveled to DC and stormed the Capital - are now imprisoned. Can you imagine Trump compromising, or reaching across the aisle, or doing anything other than fear mongering?

4. In a continuation of the above, while I understand that Trump's candidacy has always defied logic, whatever magic he possessed in 2016 has run out. In 2016, it was novel. His schtick, a "successful" businessman with a catchy MAGA phrase who was going to "drain the swamp" and treat the US Government like a business, it all appealed to a lot of everyday people who were disenfranchised with the Democratic Party (particularly the so-called "establishment" that they saw of Hillary Clinton), and who had been told for eight years by the Republican Party that the Democrats were coming for their children and that Obama was a Muslim. In 2020, there was a redemption tour. He was an incumbent president who sold himself as a war time president (COVID) in a time when it was hard for Democrats to vote because of an ongoing pandemic. And he still lost. And then he led an attack on democracy the likes of which have never been seen domestically. In 2024, it's old. People are tired. People want him to go away.

5. People may not like Harris, but they don't hate her. Outside the never growing base of Trump supporters, people legitimately hate Trump. The general public might prefer Biden, or Buttigieg, or Warren, or Obama, or even Haley. But Harris is not Trump and so she is getting votes for that alone. When you talk about motivating the vote, hate for Trump is an easy one in 2024.

6. Turnout is going to be an all time high. There's no pandemic, while early voting and mail-in voting is more accessible than ever before. Turnout has always favored the Democratic party.

I can point at polls and fear monger, but the polls don't make sense. There were warning signs in 2016. There are none now. Trump is old, washed up, a disgrace, a felon. He lost in 2020 and has only gotten worse, while the Dems candidate has gotten better. Trump is running only to keep himself out of prison. He won't win.

I think the global environment of anti-incumbency across the world post-pandemic (w/ inflation in particular) is a thing... but America has actually weathered it better than most (economic sentiment is about as high as it was in July 2021 per the UM at the moment) *and* the GOP nominated Donald Trump... who, while perhaps more popular than he's been, is still a really unpopular figure and someone who has near universal name recognition. For whom impressions are calcified.

Having said all of that, I more or less agree, and I think people are way too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are going above and beyond not trying to underestimate him again. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Off the top of my head, **** Cheney, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Jeff Flake, Olivia Troye, Stephanie Grisham, Anthony Scaramucci, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Cassidy Hutchinson, Sarah Matthews, Alyssa Farrah, Susan Molinari, and the state senator in Wisconsin whose name I forgot. 

This is also the first election we have had Post-Dobbs... I don't know that the experiences of people on this board necessarily map easily onto the kinds of voters that might make that jump based on that issue, I'll put it that way.

[MichiganCardinal]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think the global environment of anti-incumbency across the world post-pandemic (w/ inflation in particular) is a thing... but America has actually weathered it better than most (economic sentiment is about as high as it was in July 2021 per the UM at the moment) *and* the GOP nominated Donald Trump... who, while perhaps more popular than he's been, is still a really unpopular figure and someone who has near universal name recognition. For whom impressions are calcified.

Having said all of that, I more or less agree, and I think people are way too dismissive of the idea that pollsters are going above and beyond not trying to underestimate him again. 

But to that point, Trump is the one who has led two ballots before, and been President. Contrary to what he may tell you, America wasn't great between 2017-2021. I think he'll get as much incumbent hate as Harris will for being attached to Biden.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

This is also the first election we have had Post-Dobbs... I don't know that the experiences of people on this board necessarily map easily onto the kinds of voters that might make that jump based on that issue, I'll put it that way.

It's also the first since the big lie and the insurrection. 

[romad1]

15 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

There is not one logical reason Trump will win this election. Breaking away from the eyes glued to the polls that are seemingly changing by the hour, a couple notes:

1. Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign. Better than Biden's in 2020, and head and shoulders above Clinton's in 2016. She has raised millions more than Trump, has inspired the youth vote from the second she became the candidate, and from the very beginning has had the infrastructure, the political operatives, and the political chops on her side to win a major American election. From a political standpoint, she does everything right. The only error I have seen as I became a more active engager in the last month was Biden's boneheaded comment calling Trump supporters garbage. Stupid comment on the same vein as "deplorables" was, but hardly James Comey level October surprise. Lucky for Harris nonetheless, she's on the ticket and not Biden.

2. On the other hand, Trump is a absolute dumpster fire. He's in New Mexico five days before the election. There is no rhyme or reason to anything he's done. Compared to Biden's "garbage" gaffe, Trump's Puerto Rico fiasco was 10x worse. He doesn't know what he's doing, and those around him are either too incompetent or too afraid to speak up and tell him.

3. By every standard that has mattered in modern day elections, Trump is the worst major party political candidate of all time. He doesn't add voters to his base. He doesn't even try. He just relies on his base. The same base of which its most fervent supporters - who traveled to DC and stormed the Capital - are now imprisoned. Can you imagine Trump compromising, or reaching across the aisle, or doing anything other than fear mongering?

4. In a continuation of the above, while I understand that Trump's candidacy has always defied logic, whatever magic he possessed in 2016 has run out. In 2016, it was novel. His schtick, a "successful" businessman with a catchy MAGA phrase who was going to "drain the swamp" and treat the US Government like a business, it all appealed to a lot of everyday people who were disenfranchised with the Democratic Party (particularly the so-called "establishment" that they saw of Hillary Clinton), and who had been told for eight years by the Republican Party that the Democrats were coming for their children and that Obama was a Muslim. In 2020, there was a redemption tour. He was an incumbent president who sold himself as a war time president (COVID) in a time when it was hard for Democrats to vote because of an ongoing pandemic. And he still lost. And then he led an attack on democracy the likes of which have never been seen domestically. In 2024, it's old. People are tired. People want him to go away.

5. People may not like Harris, but they don't hate her. Outside the never growing base of Trump supporters, people legitimately hate Trump. The general public might prefer Biden, or Buttigieg, or Warren, or Obama, or even Haley. But Harris is not Trump and so she is getting votes for that alone. When you talk about motivating the vote, hate for Trump is an easy one in 2024.

6. Turnout is going to be an all time high. There's no pandemic, while early voting and mail-in voting is more accessible than ever before. Turnout has always favored the Democratic party.

I can point at polls and fear monger, but the polls don't make sense. There were warning signs in 2016. There are none now. Trump is old, washed up, a disgrace, a felon. He lost in 2020 and has only gotten worse, while the Dems candidate has gotten better. Trump is running only to keep himself out of prison. He won't win.

People want to be nervous.   I do think there is a strong possibility of violence if team crybaby doesn't get its way but the overall trends (well outlined above).  The only trend you don't mention is the huge, already polled and captured in early voting trends gender gap.  

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

But to that point, Trump is the one who has led two ballots before, and been President. Contrary to what he may tell you, America wasn't great between 2017-2021. I think he'll get as much incumbent hate as Harris will for being attached to Biden.

Harris has a positive approval rating. Trump does not. I think a big chunk of Biden's approval is his age. 

[romad1]

This is strong

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/billionaire-owners-wapo-la-times-19877875.php

 

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's also the first since the big lie and the insurrection. 

Totally, they count too....

There's a tendency to just assume that Dobbs and January 6th just don't matter in how people look at elections, and if they, lo and behold, end up mattering when we look back next Thursday, it'll be the third election cycle in a row (Midterms, 2023 off year elections) where that assumption ended up being flawed.

Edited November 1, 2024 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

21 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

By that same token, would you be surprised by that either?

I've seen posts on this board stating that it's ridiculous to suggest that there are Rs who might vote for Harris when I know a few IRL.

I don't think Harris is very popular.  She is seen by some as an extension of Biden who has become unpopular during his presidency.  Others see her as too radical.  I also think a lot of men won't vote for a woman.  The best thing she has going for her is that she'll probably bring out the women's vote, but I don't know if that's enough.  

Edited November 1, 2024 by Tiger337

[romad1]

Joe Rogan destroyed Vance on abortion/Roe.  I was not expecting that.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think Harris is very popular.  She is seen by some as an extension of Biden who has become unpopular during his presidency.  Others see her as too radical.  I also think a lot of men won't vote for a woman.  The best thing she has going for her is that she'll probably bring out the women's vote, but I don't know if that's enough.  

Numerous polls say otherwise. 

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think Harris is very popular. 

Kamala Harris generally is about 7-10 points more popular than Donald Trump in most polls. 

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I also think a lot of men won't vote for a woman.  The best thing she has going for her is that she'll probably bring out the women's vote, but I don't know if that's enough.  

Women make up a greater percentage of the population of the United States than men, and they vote at higher margins.

In the bigger picture, I think the Democratic Party has work to do with younger men, but if you're making a bet on demographics, would you make it with younger women or younger men? Honest question. 

Edited November 1, 2024 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Kamala Harris generally is about 7-10 points more popular than Donald Trump in most polls. 

Women make up a greater percentage of the population of the United States than men, and they vote at higher margins.

In the bigger picture, I think the Democratic Party has work to do with younger men, but if you're making a bet on demographics, would you make it with younger women or younger men? Honest question. 

Considering younger women are extremely motivated and already voting at a higher rate than men, I'll take the women. 

[LaceyLou]

33 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

There is not one logical reason Trump will win this election. Breaking away from the eyes glued to the polls that are seemingly changing by the hour, a couple notes:

1. Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign. Better than Biden's in 2020, and head and shoulders above Clinton's in 2016. She has raised millions more than Trump, has inspired the youth vote from the second she became the candidate, and from the very beginning has had the infrastructure, the political operatives, and the political chops on her side to win a major American election. From a political standpoint, she does everything right. The only error I have seen as I became a more active engager in the last month was Biden's boneheaded comment calling Trump supporters garbage. Stupid comment on the same vein as "deplorables" was, but hardly James Comey level October surprise. Lucky for Harris nonetheless, she's on the ticket and not Biden.

2. On the other hand, Trump is a absolute dumpster fire. He's in New Mexico five days before the election. There is no rhyme or reason to anything he's done. Compared to Biden's "garbage" gaffe, Trump's Puerto Rico fiasco was 10x worse. He doesn't know what he's doing, and those around him are either too incompetent or too afraid to speak up and tell him.

3. By every standard that has mattered in modern day elections, Trump is the worst major party political candidate of all time. He doesn't add voters to his base. He doesn't even try. He just relies on his base. The same base of which its most fervent supporters - who traveled to DC and stormed the Capital - are now imprisoned. Can you imagine Trump compromising, or reaching across the aisle, or doing anything other than fear mongering?

4. In a continuation of the above, while I understand that Trump's candidacy has always defied logic, whatever magic he possessed in 2016 has run out. In 2016, it was novel. His schtick, a "successful" businessman with a catchy MAGA phrase who was going to "drain the swamp" and treat the US Government like a business, it all appealed to a lot of everyday people who were disenfranchised with the Democratic Party (particularly the so-called "establishment" that they saw of Hillary Clinton), and who had been told for eight years by the Republican Party that the Democrats were coming for their children and that Obama was a Muslim. In 2020, there was a redemption tour. He was an incumbent president who sold himself as a war time president (COVID) in a time when it was hard for Democrats to vote because of an ongoing pandemic. And he still lost. And then he led an attack on democracy the likes of which have never been seen domestically. In 2024, it's old. People are tired. People want him to go away.

5. People may not like Harris, but they don't hate her. Outside the never growing base of Trump supporters, people legitimately hate Trump. The general public might prefer Biden, or Buttigieg, or Warren, or Obama, or even Haley. But Harris is not Trump and so she is getting votes for that alone. When you talk about motivating the vote, hate for Trump is an easy one in 2024.

6. Turnout is going to be an all time high. There's no pandemic, while early voting and mail-in voting is more accessible than ever before. Turnout has always favored the Democratic party.

I can point at polls and fear monger, but the polls don't make sense. There were warning signs in 2016. There are none now. Trump is old, washed up, a disgrace, a felon. He lost in 2020 and has only gotten worse, while the Dems candidate has gotten better. Trump is running only to keep himself out of prison. He won't win.

I hope you're right.

I just can't help but remember the phrase "He gets to be lawless, she has to be flawless," and nobody can be flawless. And fair or not, she will be judged more harshly.

[LaceyLou]

On 10/30/2024 at 6:52 PM, mtutiger said:

"Dukakis in the Tank" energy

Apt comparison... of course, unlike Drumpf Dukakis is a decent, intelligent person who unfortunately made a lot of foolish choices in that campaign. 😞

[The Ronz]

Trump is going to win.

Dobbs/Roe vs Wade means nothing to any woman I know.

They are all voting for Trump.

January 6th means nothing to anyone I know - it is simply a day after January 5th but before January 7th.

They are all voting for Trump.

The people I know enjoy the fact that they can now be openly racist.

They also hate America and democracy and always have.

Trump granted them this "right" in 2016 and it is a "right" they want to continue to have.

To turn a phrase "They aren't going back."

 

 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Trump is going to win.

Dobbs/Roe vs Wade means nothing to any woman I know.

They are all voting for Trump.

January 6th means nothing to anyone I know - it is simply a day after January 5th but before January 7th.

They are all voting for Trump.

The people I know enjoy the fact that they can now be openly racist.

They also hate America and democracy and always have.

Trump granted them this "right" in 2016 and it is a "right" they want to continue to have.

To turn a phrase "They aren't going back."

 

 

Like we have told you many times, you need to associate with better people.