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2024 Presidential Election thread


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15 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

In a perfect world it would have been nice if Biden decided early not to run again, but the problem is that there is no good time for a President to announce that without neutering his admin, so it even if there is some inclination (not that I think there was any with Biden) the shear momentum of trying to get things done works hard against that decision ever being implemented.

I don't agree even a little that a perfect world would have Joe Biden opting out of running because he is old. Joe Biden is arguably the best president since FDR, is still performing at a high level into his 80s, and if nothing else, he has surrounded himself with good and competent people to pursue the agenda he has established—an agenda that has resulted in getting COVID under control; soft-landing the economy without a recession; marshaling the world's efforts against Putin; bringing prices way down on life-saving drugs; making us the leading producer of renewable energy (and non-renewable energy, FWTW); cracking down on junk fees by banks; keeping China at bay; tackling crippling, coercive student debt; bringing high-tech microchip production to the US; implementing the greatest infrastructure effort since the Interstate Highway System; and several more that are escaping me at the moment. Don't you want four more years of the same? Because put some other Democrat in there and there's no guarantee they don't just substitute batons instead of taking Joe's and running with it.

Besides, who would you run in Biden's place? Gretchen Whitmer? (A) she's not available or ready to run, and (b) there are still a lot of people on the margins, enough to cost the election (thanks to the Electoral College), who will simply not vote for a woman for president, even in 2024. Pete Buttigieg? Same thing, substitute "gay' for "woman". J.B. Pritzker? Nobody knows who he is, he weighs 400 pounds so substitute "fat" for "old", and people would hang the myth of nation-leading Chicago crime around his neck like an anvil on a pier. Dean Phillips? He's already proven to be dead in the water. Marianne Williamson? Robert Kennedy Jr? Kamala Harris? *snort* Who else ya got?

Besides, I don't think it's a fait accompli that Biden will be dead before January 20, 2029, anyway. Every elite in the world is living into their 90s and beyond these days because they all have access to the best, most advanced healthcare in the world, and Biden has the best of all of them, literally 24/7. Plus he has shown that he's pretty healthy—he even rides bicycles for exercise, or at least he did as recently as last August. Biden is not gonna simply drop dead of being 85. So I'm not worried about that at all.

Edited by chasfh
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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Besides, I don't think it's a fait accompli that Biden will be dead before January 20, 2029, anyway. Every elite in the world is living into their 90s and beyond these days because they all have access to the best, most advanced healthcare in the world, and Biden has the best of all of them. Plus he has shown that he's pretty healthy, he even rides bicycles for exercise, or at least he did as recently as last August. Biden is not gonna simply drop dead of being 85. So I'm not worried about that at all.

I agree. Biden and Trump will both live into their 90s unless they get something unmanageable like some aggressive form of cancer.  They could be in very poor health for a long period of time, but they will be kept alive.     

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3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Judging from the responses, I gather that term limits are not good for Democrats.  😀  So, if that's the case, I am sorry I mentioned it!  How about "term" limits for the Supreme court? 

I wouldn’t mind that because the people don’t vote for them and have no way of getting them out. They do with politicians.  I would even end term limits for presidents since it seemed like a reaction to one person and we shouldn’t make laws or amendments on that.  30 years is a nice round number and fits with traditional pension plans, etc and has limited application.  I was in my first weeks of college when Clarence Thomas got on the court. I’m 50 now.  That’s enough.  We would have 12 more years  to go before it comes up with Roberts and Alito. 

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4 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Reagan would have beaten Carter in 1976

not sure about this one. Carter's failure to deal with inflation was a big winner for Reagan and it wasn't nearly as big an issue yet in '76. Also Carter was much more appealing as a candidate than he was as the president. He was easier to run against in 1980 because most people judged his leadership deficient after he had been in office. No-one knew the bright happy pol Carter was in '76 would end up lecturing us about malaise and would let himself be totally paralyzed by Khomeini. Ted Koppel and 'Nightline' was the world's longest running Reagan campaign ad and RR never had to pay a nickel for it.

An interesting one is whether Ford wins in '76 without "the Pardon".  My guess is the effect is over rated. The people most disturbed by the pardon were democrats, who might have said "I'd never vote for Ford after the pardon" in surveys,  but in reality probably wouldn't have without it either. And he absolutely did hurt himself in the debates - Carter bested him by quite a bit.

 

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50 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't agree even a little that a perfect world would have Joe Biden opting out of running because he is old.

But that isn't why. The why is simply the political reality that he is politically unpopular and may struggle to be re-elected even against the worst challenger in US history. I can't guess all the reasons the public has not embraced him. Age is certainly one but probably not the only. Lee has that part dead on. We can sit here as Biden supporters and claim it is unfair and irrational because his leadership and accomplishments are solid, but that and $5 gets us a Vente to share. The why doesn't matter, it appears he is not going to be a strong candidate for re-election. An open primary would have floated a Newsome or Whitmer or Landrieu or Josh Shapiro, or Buttigieg whose vote getting ability would have been proven by the process.

All that said, it's early and maybe Biden will summon the physical energy and verbal discipline to campaign successfully, dispel the public's reservations and win big. Maybe.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

lol literally

It's literally not because in 2016 there was no incumbent. If Obama was able and running for a 3rd term, I would not have voted for Bernie Sanders or Clinton or anyone other than Obama. With that said, voting for Sanders was one of my most regrettable voting decisions I ever made.

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36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Judging from the responses, I gather that term limits are not good for Democrats.  😀  So, if that's the case, I am sorry I mentioned it!  How about "term" limits for the Supreme court? 

The theory that judges/justices are impartial (that we were taught in elementary social studies) has been proven wrong several times. That coupled with the fact that too many judges have held on long past their healthy expiration date. 
 

I would love to hold all federal court judges to say a 15 year term, let them retire with pensions and even give them emeritus status on the court.
30 plus years on the court is way too long. 

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What I like about the calls for replacing Biden because he's old is they skip right over Harris. Then, they really can't decide on who either Whitmer or Newsom. If Whitmer or Newsom became the nominee, the right would just come up with a new attack. Those candidates look better because they haven't run for president and gotten the full wrath of the right wing apparatus. 

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1 minute ago, CMRivdogs said:

The theory that judges/justices are impartial (that we were taught in elementary social studies) has been proven wrong several times. That coupled with the fact that too many judges have held on long past their healthy expiration date. 
 

I would love to hold all federal court judges to say a 15 year term, let them retire with pensions and even give them emeritus status on the court.
30 plus years on the court is way too long. 

I like the single long term appointment idea. Two big benefits - you get the obvious ones that an appointment in year X isn't still affecting the country 30yrs later, but I think just as important, both parties have been in a race to nominate younger and younger judges on exactly the theory that you can influence the court longer, so the byproduct is that you get judges too young to have decent track records and probably generally lower competence. If the justice has to go in 15 yrs, 60 is as good as 45 for the appointment age and I think that would be an improvement.

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Back to the EC, the gentlemen who devised the system did so out of compromise. It during a time when only white male property owners could vote. They didn't trust the rabble to make a direct decision on who should hold the highest office in the new nation. There were no political parties and the state legislatures for the most part chose the electors.

That whole system and premise is long gone. Most states now require all electors vote for the person receiving a plurality of the votes in their state. To me, that's not democratic. It effectively disenfranchises half the voters in the state. Why should I even bother to vote in most states since the outcome is already decided before the election.

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11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

What I like about the calls for replacing Biden because he's old is they skip right over Harris. Then, they really can't decide on who either Whitmer or Newsom. If Whitmer or Newsom became the nominee, the right would just come up with a new attack. Those candidates look better because they haven't run for president and gotten the full wrath of the right wing apparatus. 

By now Harris has had a long time to make some kind of positive impression in her own party and can't seem to. Not a good sign.

Ironic that Biden was all over the Obama admin and Harris is almost completely AWOL. So either a) Biden doesn't trust her because 1) she not competent 2) he's afraid she will upstage him  b) She won't play good soldier.

I have no idea which of these things, some of which would be Biden's fault and some of which would be Harris', may be true, but the Harris vice presidency has not been a big hit.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I like the single long term appointment idea. Two big benefits - you get the obvious ones that an appointment in year X isn't still affecting the country 30yrs later, but I think just as important, both parties have been in a race to nominate younger and younger judges on exactly the theory that you can influence the court longer, so the byproduct is that you get judges too young to have decent track records and probably generally lower competence. If the justice has to go in 15 yrs, 60 is as good as 45 for the appointment age and I think that would be an improvement.

Plus judges like Clarence Thomas can get their RVs sooner without influence peddling. Theoretically 

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40 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

What I like about the calls for replacing Biden because he's old is they skip right over Harris. Then, they really can't decide on who either Whitmer or Newsom. If Whitmer or Newsom became the nominee, the right would just come up with a new attack. Those candidates look better because they haven't run for president and gotten the full wrath of the right wing apparatus. 

Remember when Pete Buttigieg was going to be the next big thing?  

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6 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Term limits means they are even more beholden to special interests and you get less qualified candidates. Term limits has been one of the biggest cons sold to the public. 

Short version:

You get more idiot, corrupt/ corrupted/ corruptible candidates with term limits.

History has shown term limits to be very... stupid.

And... wait for it...:

Short-sighted.

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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4 hours ago, oblong said:

... a path forward could emerge via a split of the Democratic Party with folks like Manchin butting heads with the progressives. 

I prefer a path forward with the Republican Party splitting into MAGA-Fascists and all-other-conservatives that cannot stomach MAGA or the over-the-top Evangelicals. 

That's where Trump and Haley currently sit.

Since the anti-Trump voter is splintering everywhere in multiple directions (to right-leaning Indies, some are hold-their-nose-but-vote-for-Trump, some Suburban Republican Moms for Democrats, etc., etc...):

Trump can't win.

He loses again this year...

And the Republican Party will implode into I don't know how many pieces, accusations, in-fighting, etc.

Oh, BTW, that's already happening, right now and for the past year.

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I agree. Biden and Trump will both live into their 90s unless they get something unmanageable like some aggressive form of cancer.  They could be in very poor health for a long period of time, but they will be kept alive.     

Not to be mean but, Trump's going to be dead within 6 years due to clogged arteries (heart attack).

Or maybe he just...

"Blows a gasket?"

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Judging from the responses, I gather that term limits are not good for Democrats.  😀  So, if that's the case, I am sorry I mentioned it!  How about "term" limits for the Supreme court? 

OK, there ya' go...

DEFINITELY for the Supreme Court.

I'm on board.. can we start RIGHT NOW with corrupt POS Clarence Thomas?!?!

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9 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not to be mean but, Trump's going to be dead within 6 years due to clogged arteries (heart attack).

Or maybe he just...

"Blows a gasket?"

I think Trump would have died of Covid if he didn't have the best medical care in the world.  They can do amazing things with hearts today though.  My dad lived until 99 and his heart was functioning less than 40% the last dozen years.  

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2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

The California Libertarian convention. RFK Jr received one vote in the straw poll.

The rest of the names have to be fake...

 

 

 

We know that Justin Amash is real.  

I just looked up Mapstead and Rectenwald and they are real.  

I am all for one of the Libertarians running as an Independent and stealing a few Republican votes.  Now, of course it would be better if they voted for Biden instead, but nobody who would vote for a Libertarian would consider a Democrat.  

Waitning for MTU to come here and tell me that's not how it works!

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30 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

We know that Justin Amash is real.  

I just looked up Mapstead and Rectenwald and they are real.  

I am all for one of the Libertarians running as an Independent and stealing a few Republican votes.  Now, of course it would be better if they voted for Biden instead, but nobody who would vote for a Libertarian would consider a Democrat.  

Waitning for MTU to come here and tell me that's not how it works!

Not sure why you involved me in this, I really don't care about what happens at a California Libertarian Convention 

Edited by mtutiger
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