2024 Presidential Election thread

[oblong]

53 minutes ago, pfife said:

Any Michiganders or Michiganians take advantage of new in person early voting now available to us?   

I think this will become my preferred method esp when the GOP controls stuff.   However I didn't go this year to see so I'll be regular in person tomorrow.

I dont trust Republicans with my mail in absentee ballot.   

I did.  Our community center had it set up in the gym.  It was over kill as by Friday, after a week, I was only voter #550.  Lots of folks telling you where to go, etc.  More workers than voters.  But I get it.  It's a dry run for November and is good practice for them to sort out the kinks.  

I was asked if I wanted a ballot in English or Arabic.  I was thinking about the reaction of others who would be asked that, as if they were asked if they were a child molestor.

I liked having the option of going whenever I could over a period of time.  But voting is easy for me as my polling location is 1/2 mile away anyway, and I'm at the rec center 4-5 times a week already.  

It's almost criminal how easy it is for me when I see pictures of other locations.  There's 3 polling locations within a mile radius of my house.  

When people like to make it harder to vote... that tells you all you need to know.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

But ultimately, I just don't it matters much.... they are going to have a lot of work to do regardless before November, and much of the uncommitted vote would either be there or can be won back IMO

 

36 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 I guarantee more of these never Trump Haley voters will come around on Trump than uncommitted voters coming around on Biden. 

The another factor that drives where things end up between these extremes is the nature of discontent with the candidate. My read would be that many discontented with Biden, both over Gaza, or the general complaint he is not progressive enough etc. have policy gripes.  But the saliency of policy issues can shift a lot in 8 months, and in the end will still come down to "is the alternative still much worse?" which it will be for in most policy comparisons between Biden and Trump. Even on the Gaza war, the Dems only need to remind Palestinian supporters that Trump and Bibi are BFFs. OTOH, discontent with Hillary was largely personal, a lot of people decided she was a person they just didn't like or trust - that's 'stickier' politically because it doesn't change when facts on the ground change, e.g. a truce in a war zone.  Whereas in '16 Trump's had the benefit of appearing to be the character he was scripted to be on 'Apprentice'.

I think this difference gives Biden a better chance to win back those voting to 'send him a message'. But of course he still has to execute between now and Nov.

Edited February 26 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

The another factor that drives where things end up between these extremes is the nature of discontent with the candidate. My read would be that many discontented with Biden, both over Gaza, or the general complaint he is not progressive enough etc. have policy gripes.  But the saliency of policy issues can shift a lot in 8 months, and in the end will still come down to "is the alternative still much worse?" which it will be for in most policy comparisons for progressives between Biden and Trump. OTOH, discontent with Hillary was largely personal, a lot of people decided she was a person they just didn't like or trust - that's 'stickier' politically because it doesn't change when facts on the ground change, e.g. a truce in a war zone.  Whereas in '16 Trump's had the benefit of appearing to be the character he was scripted to be on 'Apprentice'.

I think this difference gives Biden a better chance to win back those voting to 'send him a message'. But of course he still has to execute between now and Nov.

Haley, Cruz, Graham, Stefaniak etc all came around on Trump in 2016. Democrats need to fall in love with a candidate. These tankies aren't going to come around. They will be the loudest come 2025 when Trump is president and have their stupid protests and ridiculous pink hats. I have lost all patience with this wing of the Democratic party. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Remember the old board? There were a high percentage of posters there who loudly and proudly copped to being Libertarian. It definitely seemed a lot cooler back before people came to understand exactly what a Libertarian system would entail.

Libertarianism is great for people born on third base who believe their government’s sole job should be to prevent anyone from blocking the plate.

I briefly went through a libertarian phase in my 20s, but came to realize it is mostly about selfishness and really no more realistic than pure socialism.  

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I guarantee more of these never Trump Haley voters will come around on Trump than uncommitted voters coming around on Biden. 

Just want to revisit this point to say that Haley is very likely to get a much higher share relative to the GOP Primary than Uncommitted will in the D Primary.

Some of that will be crossover voting, but it won't explain all of it either.

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Just want to revisit this point to say that Haley is very likely to get a much higher share relative to the GOP Primary than Uncommitted will in the D Primary.

Some of that will be crossover voting, but it won't explain all of it either.

I don't doubt she will. What I'm saying is more of that Haley vote will come around on Trump in November than the uncommitted vote will come around on Biden. We saw it in 2016. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I briefly went through a libertarian phase in my 20s, but came to realize it is mostly about selfishness and really no more realistic than pure socialism.  

I went through it too in my 20s. I voted for Ron Paul in two different primaries, read Mises Institute publications and Milton Friedman, the whole bit. 

Another question to ask, what do people think the percentage of Michigan voters will be that vote uncommitted on Tuesday?

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I briefly went through a libertarian phase in my 20s, but came to realize it is mostly about selfishness and really no more realistic than pure socialism.  

LOL - I had certain 'natural advantages' that shaped my political understandings early. On one side, I'm 5"8' on a good day, have an older sister, am the youngest of my cousins, and ran mostly with older kids growing up, so I learned early that the weak have to organize and cooperate to live with the strong. OTOH, I'm basically a lazy person and it was always clear to me that any collective full of my clones would fail quickly. 

Edited February 26 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't doubt she will. What I'm saying is more of that Haley vote will come around on Trump in November than the uncommitted vote will come around on Biden. We saw it in 2016. 

The share of GOP voters who switched for Biden were, IMO, the single most deciding group of the 2020 election, and everything that we've seen since 2020 suggests that Trump will do worse with this group in 2024. 

So I don't know if I agree with you here. If you're a voter hanging onto Nikki Haley this late in the ballgame, and a state like Michigan gives her around 30% of the vote, that's a lot of vote to win back compared to something like 10-15% uncommitted.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The share of GOP voters who switched for Biden were, IMO, the single most deciding group of the 2020 election, and everything that we've seen since 2020 suggests that Trump will do worse with this group in 2024. 

So I don't know if I agree with you here. If you're a voter hanging onto Nikki Haley this late in the ballgame, and a state like Michigan gives her around 30% of the vote, that's a lot of vote to win back compared to something like 10-15% uncommitted.

In 2016 Trump only got 32% of the vote in the South Carolina primary. Nearly 70% voted for someone else. Cruz, Rubio, Bush were Trump critics. Kasich even endorsed Biden in 2020. Trump won them all over. Republicans fall in line and Democrats fall in love. It's why Democrats lose so many elections they should win. 

[oblong]

Everyone's a libertarian until they need something.

Libertarians are democrats who own guns and republicans who smoke pot.

I have several books that go into deep thinking and frankly looking back it's just not sustainable.  It's a haven for those discontented with both parties.  Most claim to be economic conservatives and social liberals. 

 

[oblong]

I don't think uncommitted will matter too much in November.  I do think the arab american vote will have a decent shift or non vote though.  A lot of them are ambivalent. Many of them are in line with the evangelicals when it comes to social issues and they can be brainwashed enough to think Biden is fighting Israel's war so that will get them to the polls.

Biden's biggest concern if he has one is just apathy by people thinking he's got it in the bag and it's a replay of 2016 again.  But that's a concern for Trump too, not because they think he's got it in the bag but either they just don't care about it anymore or they think it's rigged against them so they won't bother.  

 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

Everyone's a libertarian until they need something.

Libertarians are democrats who own guns and republicans who smoke pot.

I have several books that go into deep thinking and frankly looking back it's just not sustainable.  It's a haven for those discontented with both parties.  Most claim to be economic conservatives and social liberals. 

 

It has a lot of staying power in the US because of the Cowboy myth of individual sufficiency that began to grow starting in the early 20th century. But of course we know the truth is the American West wouldn't have been habitable and would still be economically unsustainable to this day if it weren't attached to a great cooperative enterprise named "USA" 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

In 2016 Trump only got 32% of the vote in the South Carolina primary. Nearly 70% voted for someone else. Cruz, Rubio, Bush were Trump critics. Kasich even endorsed Biden in 2020. Trump won them all over. Republicans fall in line and Democrats fall in love. It's why Democrats lose so many elections they should win. 

I said something similar to Tater recently on a different point, but not everything about the 2024 election has to be cross referenced with or filtered through an election that happened eight years ago.

There have been a lot of changes under the hood since then. The results in SC that happened two days ago are more relevant than what happened eight years ago to me, and when you look at those results and what some of the exit polling suggested, it's pretty clear that Donald Trump will likely continue the trend of bleeding support from traditionally GOP areas in the suburbs in 2024.

It doesn't guarantee anything about the outcome of this upcoming election, obviously, but the demographic changes on that level are real. And there are places in Michigan (Oakland and Kent Counties probably the best examples) where that's likely to be on full-display.

Edited February 26 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

It has a lot of staying power in the US because of the Cowboy myth of individual sufficiency that began to grow starting in the early 20th century. But of course we know the truth is the American West wouldn't have been habitable and would still be economically unsustainable to this day if it weren't attached to a great cooperative enterprise named "USA" 

It always amuses me when states like Wyoming are like we want to break away from the US. Bitch you need to US more than the US needs you. There are probably only 2-3 states that could stand alone as countries. California and probably Texas and New York. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I said something similar to Tater recently on a different point, but not everything about the 2024 election has to be cross referenced with or filtered through an election that happened eight years ago.

There have been a lot of changes under the hood since then. The results in SC that happened two days ago are more relevant than what happened eight years ago to me, and when you look at those results and what some of the exit polling suggested, it's pretty clear that Donald Trump will likely continue the trend of bleeding support from traditionally GOP areas in the suburbs in 2024.

It doesn't guarantee anything about the outcome of this upcoming election, obviously, but the demographic changes on that level are real. And there are places in Michigan (Oakland and Kent Counties probably the best examples) where that's likely to be on full-display.

The thing is, there doesn't need to be a large shift to throw the election to Trump. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were about 1% wins. Michigan was 3%. 2016 came down to Stein voters. The worst part is we have elected Democrats encouraging people to vote uncommitted. Then come November when nothing changes expecting them to now support Biden. It just doesn't work that. The stakes are higher than they ever been and Democrats are playing games. 

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It always amuses me when states like Wyoming are like we want to break away from the US.

They never think about things like the fact that they'd be protecting their 2A right to use bows and arrows without the arms factories of the east coast, the steel production of the midwest, and the road and rails provided by DC taxing authority. "Yeah but other than *that*, what have the Romans done for us?"

Edited February 26 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

Now instead of expanding the base we have to beg Democrats to vote for a Democrat to protect democracy. 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, oblong said:

I don't think uncommitted will matter too much in November.  I do think the arab american vote will have a decent shift or non vote though.  A lot of them are ambivalent. Many of them are in line with the evangelicals when it comes to social issues and they can be brainwashed enough to think Biden is fighting Israel's war so that will get them to the polls.

It's worth noting too that the group shifted right in 2022.... even though Gretch and Co won their elections by 10-12, the Arab vote shifted right by something like 15-20 points alone during those same elections. 

8 minutes ago, oblong said:

Biden's biggest concern if he has one is just apathy by people thinking he's got it in the bag and it's a replay of 2016 again.  But that's a concern for Trump too, not because they think he's got it in the bag but either they just don't care about it anymore or they think it's rigged against them so they won't bother.  

In general, there's a real imbalance in how Trump's negatives or issues get framed in media versus Biden's.... as much as people talk about liberal media bias, the coverage of this race thus far makes Trump seem like a much stronger candidate that he actually is.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The thing is, there doesn't need to be a large shift to throw the election to Trump.

Couldn't you say the same about disaffected GOP voters who vote for Haley staying home or voting for Biden over Trump? Or do those people just not exist in your mind?

Don't get me wrong, I'm concerned about the margins with all groups too, I just think it's a load of crap to assume that the Democratic Party is the only party that has to worry about coalition building or attrition during elections.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

In general, there's a real imbalance in how Trump's negatives or issues get framed in media versus Biden's.... as much as people talk about liberal media bias, the coverage of this race thus far makes Trump seem like a much stronger candidate that he actually is.

This runs back to the polling issue as well. I didn't see word one in the NYT or WaPo about the polling miss in SC. Now it's true that Haley not being able to win her own state is the bigger immediate story, and Trump's margin of victory on one level made the polling irrelevant. Yet it's Trump's continuing strength in national polling that is the bigger overall story of the election and if that is illusory, that is potentially much bigger story overall than Haley and SC. But it lies exactly in the black hole of weakness in American journalism. The polling story is complex, confusing, highly technical and even involves numbers.

Edited February 26 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Couldn't you say the same about disaffected GOP voters who vote for Haley staying home or voting for Biden over Trump? Or do those people just not exist in your mind?

Don't get me wrong, I'm concerned about the margins with all groups too, I just think it's a load of crap to assume that the Democratic Party is the only party that has to worry about coalition building or attrition during elections.

In particular in MI you have the Karamano situation and split of the GOP.   Will those nutjobs fall in line when Hoekstra is confirmed as the real  head of the state party, if he's not been already?

 

[Motown Bombers]

**** Beto. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Couldn't you say the same about disaffected GOP voters who vote for Haley staying home or voting for Biden over Trump? Or do those people just not exist in your mind?

Don't get me wrong, I'm concerned about the margins with all groups too, I just think it's a load of crap to assume that the Democratic Party is the only party that has to worry about coalition building or attrition during elections.

They don't exist. Republicans always fall in line. Haley in 2016 was one of Trump's biggest critics until she wasn't and working in his cabinet. Cruz, Rudio, Stefaniak, Graham, Mace and the list goes on. Democrats don't fall in line like Republicans unless they love a candidate like Obama. 

[Motown Bombers]

I still want to know how someone like Jamie Churches who voted uncommitted is going to sell her constituents to vote for Biden in November despite nothing changing.