oblong Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 There’s morons here in Dearborn that now think he won’t be on the ballot in Dearborn in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 hours ago, mtutiger said: To me, the biggest issue I see for Trump coming out of last night is that he did really poorly in West Michigan... 58% of the vote in Kent County, 61% in Ottawa (which used to be the most bedrock GOP County in the state). Trump won the GR region (barely) in 2020... there's a decent body of evidence that suggests he can lose it outright in this election. He can still win Michigan, the polls certainly say he can... but West Michigan and its trends are a real barrier and suggest he will have to make up losses elsewhere. Downriver, Macomb, and Western Wayne are where he is going to have to make up his West Michigan decline. I don't think there are enough white votes in rural areas that he can turn out to make up for the losses in Ottawa and Kent County. White working class areas, that used to vote Democrat in large majorities, are where he's going to have to pull votes away from Biden and the Dems. He's going to have to try and increase whatever turnout and vote share he can in places like Allen Park, Garden City, Lincoln Park, Livonia, Macomb Township, Roseville, Shelby Township, Sterling Heights, Taylor, Trenton, etc. Communities with north of 80% white voters and median income levels in the $45,000-$75,000 range are going to be where he needs turnout increased. On top of that, he's going to need young voters and voters of color to stay home. He may have a more likely outcome there, with those voters staying home, than he will increasing his vote share or turnout numbers among white working class than he already has. It feels like in 2020 white working class turnout peaked and that it isn't going to go that much higher. So Trump will need voters to stay home as well on the Dem side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 25 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: he's going to need young voters and voters of color to stay home. Millennials and Gen Z seem to be turning out to be better voters than young boomers or Gen X were. Hopefully that continues. Maybe they understand the system has shortchanged them and they need to change it. It seems ironic that since the boomers the young haven't been good voters when it was the boomers that grew up wanting to change the world. But I think the answer is they wanted more to change the culture, they didn't want to change the US government per se. We were cold war children, our system still was the good one. There were people in the government we didn't like (Nixon!) but the idea that the US constitutional order itself had problems wasn't so much on the radar outside the still active communist left. And of course we came of age when the 'fairness doctrine' was still in effect and before billion dollar political campaigns. There was a lot less perceived risk that not voting might be a prelude to collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: You all got on me when I pushed back against the crazies on the left being clueless, too 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 11 hours ago, ewsieg said: But Trump just saw so many black people recently, and the shoes too. AA's love shoes. Why isn't it working?!?!?! Just an addendum on this: He ran behind his statewide margin in Detroit as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Downriver, Macomb, and Western Wayne are where he is going to have to make up his West Michigan decline. I don't think there are enough white votes in rural areas that he can turn out to make up for the losses in Ottawa and Kent County. White working class areas, that used to vote Democrat in large majorities, are where he's going to have to pull votes away from Biden and the Dems. He's going to have to try and increase whatever turnout and vote share he can in places like Allen Park, Garden City, Lincoln Park, Livonia, Macomb Township, Roseville, Shelby Township, Sterling Heights, Taylor, Trenton, etc. Communities with north of 80% white voters and median income levels in the $45,000-$75,000 range are going to be where he needs turnout increased. On top of that, he's going to need young voters and voters of color to stay home. He may have a more likely outcome there, with those voters staying home, than he will increasing his vote share or turnout numbers among white working class than he already has. It feels like in 2020 white working class turnout peaked and that it isn't going to go that much higher. So Trump will need voters to stay home as well on the Dem side. This all assumes that Trump's base will be 2020 levels of juiced, which I'm sort of skeptical of at this point for a variety of reasons. But either way, last night left a lot of clues of what needs to be done. Haley left a lot of clues about where to spend time and resources in the state to persuade... Turnout in the AA community is a big piece and needs to be pursued. And probably the most challenging item is consolidating with the high-uncommited type voters, and I suspect the campaign will do the work when it is all said and done. By no means should they rest on laurels, but Biden is very lucky to be facing an opponent who has serious challenges of his own with certain groups (ie. Suburban voters) and is very unlikely to calibrate accordingly because he thinks he won the last election and is perfect and doesn't need to change anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: This all assumes that Trump's base will be 2020 levels of juiced, which I'm sort of skeptical of at this point for a variety of reasons. But either way, last night left a lot of clues of what needs to be done. Haley left a lot of clues about where to spend time and resources in the state to persuade... Turnout in the AA community is a big piece and needs to be pursued. And probably the most challenging item is consolidating with the high-uncommited type voters, and I suspect the campaign will do the work when it is all said and done. By no means should they rest on laurels, but Biden is very lucky to be facing an opponent who has serious challenges of his own with certain groups (ie. Suburban voters) and is very unlikely to calibrate accordingly because he thinks he won the last election and is perfect and doesn't need to change anything. Does he really think that or does he just want his followers to think that? Trump is a moron when it comes understanding issues or really anything that doesn't concern himself. However, he is excellent at bull****ting and manipulating people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Does he really think that or does he just want his followers to think that? I'm not sure that it matters. Bret Baier in an interview a few days ago literally asked him, point blank, to give a response to a hypothetical independent suburban woman about why they should vote for him, and he proceeded to give a 2 minute lecture about how he actually won in 2020 (ie. relitigating the last election). Which sort of illustrates what I'm getting at.... he still has a hold on his die-hards. But he is incapable of staying on message with key groups that he'll need support from in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 16 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I'm not sure that it matters. Bret Baier in an interview a few days ago literally asked him, point blank, to give a response to a hypothetical independent suburban woman about why they should vote for him, and he proceeded to give a 2 minute lecture about how he actually won in 2020 (ie. relitigating the last election). Which sort of illustrates what I'm getting at.... he still has a hold on his die-hards. But he is incapable of staying on message with key groups that he'll need support from in 2024. I think it's all broken anyway. I believe if Trump wins the election in the fall, a very lrge percentage of Democrats will believe that it was stolen whether there is strong evidence or not. A precedent has been created which will be hard to unset. It is going to be another very ugly scene regardless of who wins. I will say that I don't think the Democrats will storm the capital and Biden will not put Harris' life in danger and he will not whine for four years if they lose. If they do well in the Congressional elections, we might get to see another impeachment. LOL Edited February 29 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 If we do have a disputed election and Trump is the winner, then we'll have Harris presiding over it. I'm sure some democrats would object and then we'd have the "both sides" argument going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Trump made it very clear the vice president has the power to overturn the results of an election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 There is no doubt in my mind that Trump will try to steal the electon doing all the things he has accused the Democrats of doing. This will be a good test of elction security. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: There is no doubt in my mind that Trump will try to steal the electon doing all the things he has accused the Democrats of doing. This will be a good test of elction security. I worry less about that this time because he doesn't have the power of the office behind him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Next to Trump Bernie Sanders may be the second worst thing to happen to this country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 On 2/28/2024 at 1:03 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: there were a few instances were they found former slaves that voted after being freed. Of course this right was rescinded by white supremacist Democrates after the union army left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 On 2/28/2024 at 2:17 PM, Motown Bombers said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 16 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I think it's all broken anyway. I believe if Trump wins the election in the fall, a very lrge percentage of Democrats will believe that it was stolen whether there is strong evidence or not. There’s a crux of the biscuit here: what constitutes strong evidence? The red hats believe there is strong evidence that Biden stole the 2020 election. We say there is not. So we could say there is strong evidence that Trump steals the election in 2024, and they will say there is not. So how do we figure out what the truth is in a post-truth society? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, chasfh said: I don't have a WSJ subscription, and never will, but from what I can read is that there is tens of millions. Not hundreds or billions which is a fraction of what Israel itself spends on weapons. Hamas continues to reject every ceasefire and why should they accept one when the tankies just blame Israel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, chasfh said: There’s a crux of the biscuit here: what constitutes strong evidence? The red hats believe there is strong evidence that Biden stole the 2020 election. We say there is not. So we could say there is strong evidence that Trump steals the election in 2024, and they will say there is not. So how do we figure out what the truth is in a post-truth society? The truth is apparently whatever people want it to be. It has probably always been that way, but is more apparent now. As somebody who spends a large part of his life searching for the truth, it's pretty frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I don't have a WSJ subscription, and never will, but from what I can read is that there is tens of millions. Not hundreds or billions which is a fraction of what Israel itself spends on weapons. Hamas continues to reject every ceasefire and why should they accept one when the tankies just blame Israel? I had a prescription to WSJ for a while, but the editorial section had such an immature attachment to Dump that I had to drop it. It was embarrassing. They tried to get me to come back, but I told them there was no chance unless they disavowed Dump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Now Julian Castro, another Texas loser, is attacking Biden. We are so ****ed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 13 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I don't have a WSJ subscription, and never will, but from what I can read is that there is tens of millions. Not hundreds or billions which is a fraction of what Israel itself spends on weapons. Hamas continues to reject every ceasefire and why should they accept one when the tankies just blame Israel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 14 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I don't have a WSJ subscription, and never will, but from what I can read is that there is tens of millions. Not hundreds or billions which is a fraction of what Israel itself spends on weapons. Hamas continues to reject every ceasefire and why should they accept one when the tankies just blame Israel? by definition the Tankies will be doing whatever hurts democracy the most, so why bother making them happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 If I were a political strategist for the republicans I'd pat you guys on the back and thank you for the help. Insulting the people who's vote you need & want is a tried and true strategy for victory. Keep up the good work. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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