2024 Presidential Election thread

[The Ronz]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Trump’s White House Was ‘Awash in Speed’ — and Xanax (yahoo.com)

consider the source but it reads a lot like the biographies people wrote about the final days in Hitler's bunker

The amount of times the word “fentanyl” was mentioned in American newspapers from 2010 through 2024.

Prince died in early 2016. No idea what happened after that.

😉 

 

 

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Trump’s White House Was ‘Awash in Speed’ — and Xanax (yahoo.com)

consider the source but it reads a lot like the biographies people wrote about the final days in Hitler's bunker

The Rolling Stone article links to the DOD report.

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/09/2003373440/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2024-044_REDACTED SECURE.PDF

They were handing out uppers and downers and other stuff like it was Halloween Trick or Treat.

[RatkoVarda]

we are effing doomed. these people literally live in a different reality.

 

[romad1]

I guess Leonard Leo got his money's worth

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Usual caveats about this being a pro-Biden guy apply, but he's right that Biden will win if he wins independents by 8... and all of the polls (save CBS/YouGov) that were released this weekend do show Biden up with independents as a whole by varying degrees.

I keep thinking there's a mix of non-response bias and just a lack of consolidation on his side among the base that is influencing the results right now. Both factors should be influenced by the ramping up of the actual campaign, which likely is coming after the SOTU this week.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

we are effing doomed. these people literally live in a different reality.

 

I don't think this is much different than it's ever been.  Voters have always thought that presidents controlled the economy when their ability to do that is really very limited, at least in the short term.  They think that Trump is good at the economy because he is a businessman.  They think Biden is bad for the economy because Democrats spend too much money.  Expecting any more depth from most voters will end in disappointment.  All elections are determined more from perception than reality.  

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think this is much different than it's ever been.  Voters have always thought that presidents controlled the economy when their ability to do that is really very limited, at least in the short term.  They think that Trump is good at the economy because he is a businessman.  They think Biden is bad for the economy because Democrats spend too much money.  Expecting any more depth from most voters will end in disappointment.  All elections are determined more from perception than reality.  

CBS/YouGov poll result notwithstanding, most of the polling (particularly the WSJ poll released this weekend) is suggesting that he's seen marginal improvement on economic metrics... still low, but at least headed in the right direction.

People expect a huge snap back, but that's not really how the population operates after two years with an economy of high prices. Perceptions can change, but it will take time.

[oblong]

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, oblong said:

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

 

The stock market is on fire, so that is a good thing.  

[1776]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The stock market is on fire, so that is a good thing.  

Some talking head has stated in the past day or so that the Fed is unlikely to cut in 2024. That seems like a stretch but six months ago the consensus was overwhelming that there would be cuts in March 2024. So, there’s that. 

[oblong]

and to show the difference between the two candidates.... Biden didn't have a press conference blaming the Fed and experts for "wanting to hurt him"

[1776]

18 minutes ago, oblong said:

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

 

You might want to add groceries to that list. I think that’s a weekly reminder for folks of how food prices are a bigger piece of the pie. No, that was not an intended pun. 

[mtutiger]

25 minutes ago, oblong said:

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

 

No doubt.... 

Interest rates, and whether any cuts happen, is probably the biggest question for me. As 1776 suggests, those may or may not come.

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Some talking head has stated in the past day or so that the Fed is unlikely to cut in 2024. That seems like a stretch but six months ago the consensus was overwhelming that there would be cuts in March 2024. So, there’s that. 

I read that too, but these financial writers throw a lot of crap around, so I try not to worry about what they say.  Next week, there will be somebody talking about a rate cut in March.  And they can always find a high profile bull or bear to back their world view. 

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

No doubt.... 

Interest rates, and whether any cuts happen, is probably the biggest question for me. As 1776 suggests, those may or may not come.

If it doesn't happen and Trump wins, you can bet that Trump will pressure them to cut cut cut, probably more than they should.  The market will soar and the short-term gain will make Trump look like a genius.  

[Tigeraholic1]

9-0 Supreme court says you can't keep Trump off of ballot. This also underlines that J6 would not be considered an insurrection as supreme court did not invoke 14th in their ruling. Good luck getting it to now stick anywhere else now.

[1776]

I would have been surprised (understatement) had they decided otherwise. That whole endeavor was a bridge too far.

[1776]

16 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I read that too, but these financial writers throw a lot of crap around, so I try not to worry about what they say.  Next week, there will be somebody talking about a rate cut in March.  And they can always find a high profile bull or bear to back their world view. 

Agreed. One of the worst sites for click bait financial entertainment is MarketWatch. 

[The Ronz]

52 minutes ago, oblong said:

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

Can someone explain the fixation with gas prices?

40 years ago it was approximately $1 a gallon.

Now it is approximately $3 a gallon.

Most things have gone up 10 times or more in the past 40 years.

A pack of baseball card in 1984 was 30 cents. Now they are $3.

A McDonald's Filet-O-Fish was 50 cents. Now they are $5.

A daily newspaper was 20 cents. Now they are $2 if not more.

 

[mtutiger]

This one kinda tracks with Fabrizio/Lee/WSJ showing an improvement from last month.

For all the words spilled about the Times poll, it still looks like a T +1-2 race to me. Which, like the scene in "Burn After Reading" with David Rasche and JK Simmons, leads me to sit here and ask, "what did we learn here?" 

Edited March 4, 2024 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

people's perception of the "economy" will be based on gas prices, interest rates, and the stock market.

 

And whether they or people they know are getting laid off or are worried about being laid off.

[CMRivdogs]

I agree with the ruling that states can't just unilaterly remove a candidate from a national ballot. It doesn't look like they made a ruling here on the insurrection issue. The big question is how far will they kick the can down the road

 

[oblong]

13 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Can someone explain the fixation with gas prices?

40 years ago it was approximately $1 a gallon.

Now it is approximately $3 a gallon.

Most things have gone up 10 times or more in the past 40 years.

A pack of baseball card in 1984 was 30 cents. Now they are $3.

A McDonald's Filet-O-Fish was 50 cents. Now they are $5.

A daily newspaper was 20 cents. Now they are $2 if not more.

 

Because the prices are prominently displayed on every corner. It's like the weather, it's casual conversation pieces with strangers as you pass them by in the store.

 

[CMRivdogs]

2 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I agree with the ruling that states can't just unilaterly remove a candidate from a national ballot. It doesn't look like they made a ruling here on the insurrection issue. The big question is how far will they kick the can down the road

 

 

[1776]

By historical standards, today's mortgage rates are pretty on par with what homeowners have paid in the past. Since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in April 1971, the median 30-year mortgage rate is 7.41%. However, it's still true that rates are high by modern standards, since the typical rate observed over the past decade is under 4%.
-US. News and World Report

The last sentence above is why some folks have the impression that mortgage rates are astronomically high. In reality they’re not. In fact, at the 7.41% noted above, they’re a bit below historical norms.