2024 Presidential Election thread

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Actually the people Pence could reach are not the ones who care about democracy. Pence's cred is greatest with the religious right. If he repudiated Trump on religious grounds using an evangelical theological approach, attacked the 'Trump as Cyrus' trope as wrong/heretical, etc., tells his listeners that Jesus has told him the movement has made a bad turn,  then some heads *might* be more likely to explode. Maybe.

Vast majority of MAGA would ignore it, but it would help peel off a few thousands people on the margins.

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Don't disagree. I didn't mean to say it was expected, I was commenting on who I think Pence's constituency is, where I think he would have the most leverage should he ever use it. I've said before I'm a firm believer that the American Republican has so much of their identity construct tied up in the affiliation with that label that "refuse to endorse" is as far as they can ever get. Politically that means at best a non-voter, most likely only a non-presidential voter who still pulls the red level down the rest of the ticket. That would be enough to stop Trump, but means it's still a big lift for the Dems to get both houses and put an end to the current Congressional nihilism.

True assuming the only effect of Trump is that Tradrepubs find a way to vote around him. But I do think a bigger effect of Trump is that millions will rush to the polls at one in the morning on Election Day just to make sure they are in line for the opportunity to vote against him—pretty much as I said, prematurely, in 2016.

[Tiger337]

You aren't turning anyone in the MAGA cult.  You want to get the long-term Republicans, who still think Reagan is President and that they have to vote Republican no matter what.  They won't vote for Biden, but they might not vote for Trump.   

[romad1]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

MAGA: 91% is an A.

Sorry...its only 4 of 44 who endorsed.  The 40 are the ones who have rejected Trump.  My bad...tired.

 

[CMRivdogs]

Just a reminder from the Birthday Boy

 

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Sorry...its only 4 of 44 who endorsed.  The 40 are the ones who have rejected Trump.  My bad...tired.

 

MAGA: Fake news.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I used to think this way in 2020, but strategically if I was someone like Pence (who I believe genuinely doesn't want Trump to win) and wanted to change hearts and minds, I would have to take into account the constituency that I appeal to.

Pence's constituency are social conservatives, particularly evangelical ones. At this moment, this group is central to Trump's support (like, 80-20 or somewhere in that range). From reading part of Tim Alberta's new book on the evangelical movement, my takeaway is that a move like endorsing Biden would probably backfire with this group and cause them to just tune Pence out. 

It goes against the grain, but to the extent that any of it matters, withholding the endorsement alone is a more effective bridge in this case.

The metaphor might be that MAGA is a balloon that is more likely to be gradually deflated than be popped. And of course a good question is what happens when Trump eventually assumes room temperature. (a nod there to a another MAGA who has done the same and not really been replaced.). Is the discontent broad and deep enough that the movement will simply force another leader to the fore, or does Trump have rarer gifts that glue the movement together?

[CMRivdogs]

48 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The metaphor might be that MAGA is a balloon that is more likely to be gradually deflated than be popped. And of course a good question is what happens when Trump eventually assumes room temperature. (a nod there to an another MAGA who has done the same and not really been replaced.). Is the discontent broad and deep enough that the movement will simply force another leader to the fore, or does Trump have rarer gifts that glue the movement together?

The scary thing about this line of thinking is that the next MAGA leader may be more savvy than the current guy and less grievous oriented. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The metaphor might be that MAGA is a balloon that is more likely to be gradually deflated than be popped. And of course a good question is what happens when Trump eventually assumes room temperature. (a nod there to a another MAGA who has done the same and not really been replaced.). Is the discontent broad and deep enough that the movement will simply force another leader to the fore, or does Trump have rarer gifts that glue the movement together?

Trump has a charisma about him that will be hard to replicate. 

[Tiger337]

I personally think Trump is crude, ignorant and shallow, but others sure do seem to be strongly attracted to him.  So, I guess that makes him charasmatic.  

[oblong]

I think JD Vance is ready to replace and step into the role. 

[mtutiger]

Ladies and Gentlemen, the front runner...

[oblong]

I can’t express why specifically but Nate just bugs the **** out of me.  He writes words but doesn’t say anything.  In a tweet below he says “they didn’t do especially well” which is another way of saying “yeah I was wrong but I will just make up a higher standard and pretend that was everybody’s baseline”  I think the dude has mental issues.   

 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I can’t express why specifically but Nate just bugs the **** out of me.  He writes words but doesn’t say anything.  In a tweet below he says “they didn’t do especially well” which is another way of saying “yeah I was wrong but I will just make up a higher standard and pretend that was everybody’s baseline”  I think the dude has mental issues.   

 

A couple of observations about Silver these days (all double as reasons why I also don't care for his analysis):

(1) He is incapable of uttering the phrase "I don't know".... the tweet above that he's responding to (from John Harwood) actually illustrates it pretty well; Harwood himself is very skeptical of Silver's analysis but concedes "I don't know for certain". I could not imagine Silver doing that; Silver thinks he's right about everything and is thin-skinned whenever he's questioned.

His dig at "motivated reasoning" is interesting as well, because honestly, I think he's as susceptible as anyone to it.

(2) I'm not sure when it happened (was it COVID?), but at some point, I think Silver started moving away from the original genesis of his work after he left the baseball space (ie. election modeling) and more toward other pursuits, whether it be punditry, his poker game, writing his book, etc. And I think as he has moved further away from the election modeling world, I think he's lost some speed on his fastball.

I liken it a lot to professionalism, particularly in fields that involve licensure (such as my field, engineering).... part of maintaining a license is a requirement for a certain amount of continuing education credits in order to maintain the license. The reason isn't just to make us watch boring webinars or make venders money, at least ostensibly, it's to keep people sharp and up-to-date on new technologies or methods or research in the field. Which in turn helps us to maintain our skills as an engineer while getting further and further into the career.

With Silver, I think a lot of people liken his contrarianism exclusively to bad faith, and maybe that's true to an extent, but it may just be that he's further from this world than he was in 2012 and 2016. And I think it shows in a lot of his analysis.

Edited March 17, 2024 by mtutiger

[oblong]

You said it better than I could.  Regarding whether it’s bad faith or just that world passing him by…. I think even if it’s just the second he should be aware enough to acknowledge that instead of trying to still portray himself as the smartest guy in the room.  It’s ok if others caught up to him and and maybe he’s lost some passion to keep at it. Life evolves and our interests change.  Reminds me a little of someone like Bob  Costas doing a baseball game and living in the past while doing it. Bob… you were fine in your day. There’s new ways of playing and evaluating and broadcasting.  It’s not bad. 

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

You said it better than I could.  Regarding whether it’s bad faith or just that world passing him by…. I think even if it’s just the second he should be aware enough to acknowledge that instead of trying to still portray himself as the smartest guy in the room.  It’s ok if others caught up to him and and maybe he’s lost some passion to keep at it. Life evolves and our interests change.  Reminds me a little of someone like Bob  Costas doing a baseball game and living in the past while doing it. Bob… you were fine in your day. There’s new ways of playing and evaluating and broadcasting.  It’s not bad. 

It's possible that he's finding his current life more profitable... he built a name and brand for himself that probably sells some Substack subscriptions and will sell some books whenever he finishes this one he's working on. 

But it does seem like he's he's kinda coasting on his reputation at this point.... and the degree to which he doesn't embrace uncertainty in his analysis (which *is* a change versus 2016) makes him seem more like a pundit than an expert on poll aggregating.

[pfife]

I think he knows that now any burnout with python and tensor flow can develop models way more power than he was doing   

[mtutiger]

Real "tan suit" energy here

[smr-nj]

11 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Real "tan suit" energy here

Great idea.   (I could probably benefit from those shoes, too….. but they’re pretty ugly, so, I’d rather stumble. 🤪)

[oblong]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Real "tan suit" energy here

Every year during a debate there's a conspiracy about one of the participants being "mic'd up" because they see a bulge somewhere.

 

[Tiger337]

I like those shoes.  I switch into my Hokas when I to teach because they are more comfortable for walking around.  

Dump makes such a big deal of trying to sound like a regular guy, yet constantly wears his stupid oversized suit everwhere.  

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I like those shoes.  I switch into my Hokas when I to teach because they are more comfortable for walking around.  

Footwear in general has become more casual over the past few years, and that's probably a good thing IMO

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Real "tan suit" energy here

I wonder if it helps with bone spurs? Asking for a friend.

Edited March 18, 2024 by Tigeraholic1

[chasfh]

42 minutes ago, oblong said:

Every year during a debate there's a conspiracy about one of the participants being "mic'd up" because they see a bulge somewhere.

 

"I'm not mic'd up, that's not a banana in my pocket. Sure, I'm glad to see you. Why do you ask?"

[smr-nj]

So, we really have come to the point where, in ONE speech, in ONE day, we have a former president of these United States: 

1. make his audience rise, and HONOR those Jan 6th criminals that he refers to as heroes/patriots/hostages - and sing. 

2. refer to migrants as non-human /animals.

3. promise a bloodbath if he loses.

….. and it’s hardly made note of, or worse, excused.  Have we been this desensitized that we wave a hand and wait for whatever bull**** he’ll spew tomorrow, without blinking?

 I am deeply worried. Horrified, actually. Scared.