2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

There were quite a few in Michigan who voted for abortion but also for Tudor Dixon on the same ballot. 

[RatkoVarda]

on a personal level, I am mentally preparing myself for a Trump victory this November. for my own mental health, I need to do that. financially, he will probably be good (maybe very good) for me. "there's no way he can win" feels very familiar, much like 2016. i am naïve enough to think that people will ultimately reject him, but even if that happens, it will be by the slimmest of margins

 

[gehringer_2]

  On 4/3/2024 at 1:21 PM, RatkoVarda said:

on a personal level, I am mentally preparing myself for a Trump victory this November. for my own mental health, I need to do that. financially, he will probably be good (maybe very good) for me. "there's no way he can win" feels very familiar, much like 2016. i am naïve enough to think that people will ultimately reject him, but even if that happens, it will be by the slimmest of margins

 

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This MI result is exactly the kind of thing that makes me question the polling. The GOP was stuffed in MI in the last election, the party is a mess, the Democratic state admin has been pretty flawless, unemployment is down. Political shifts don't happen in a vacuum, there is almost nothing you can point to in the last 24-48 months to argue that the plus side of Trump's ledger has picked up any new credits in this state.

[Motown Bombers]

  On 4/3/2024 at 1:43 PM, gehringer_2 said:

This MI result is exactly the kind of thing that makes me question the polling. The GOP was stuffed in MI in the last election, the party is a mess, the Democratic state admin has been pretty flawless, unemployment is down. Political shifts don't happen in a vacuum, there is almost nothing you can point to in the last 24-48 months to argue that the plus side of Trump's ledger has picked up any new credits in this state.

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There is a lack of Arab support in Michigan for Dems but Whitmer dealt with that in 2022 and won with ease. 

[Sports_Freak]

I see MAGA folks asking if we were better off 4 years ago. Do they have very short memories or are they stupid?

[romad1]

  On 4/3/2024 at 2:14 PM, Sports_Freak said:

I see MAGA folks asking if we were better off 4 years ago. Do they have very short memories or are they stupid?

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Apparently, they think the Epoch Times is the #1 trusted source of news per the billboards I saw on the drive across the OH and penna turnpike yesterday. 

[1984Echoes]

  On 4/3/2024 at 1:21 PM, RatkoVarda said:

on a personal level, I am mentally preparing myself for a Trump victory this November. for my own mental health... 

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The WSJ is completely in thrall of Trump and MAGA. The polls you quoted, from them, I wouldn't trust as far as I could throw Trump. Which is zero.

All polls are garbage as far as I'm concerned, not just WSJ, until we hit mid-October... from that point, I might take a look. But probably not. I just have no interest there.

And...

Trump is going down in flames.

[romad1]

  On 4/3/2024 at 7:13 PM, 1984Echoes said:

The WSJ is completely in thrall of Trump and MAGA. The polls you quoted, from them, I wouldn't trust as far as I could throw Trump. Which is zero.

All polls are garbage as far as I'm concerned, not just WSJ, until we hit mid-October... from that point, I might take a look. But probably not. I just have no interest there.

And...

Trump is going down in flames.

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The macro data says he is for sure.  He has no money.  He's losing voters left and right to the actuarial tables and his own behavior.  He isn't gaining any new voters.  

The lack of endorsements from his cabinet and other advisors has to weigh at some point.   Also, the Democrat voters will come home. 

[Sports_Freak]

  On 4/2/2024 at 5:23 PM, Motown Bombers said:

There were quite a few in Michigan who voted for abortion but also for Tudor Dixon on the same ballot. 

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I'm not sure of quite a few. I don't know the numbers but abortion and marijuana on any ballot brings out the democrats more than most issues.

[Sports_Freak]

  On 4/3/2024 at 1:43 PM, gehringer_2 said:

This MI result is exactly the kind of thing that makes me question the polling. The GOP was stuffed in MI in the last election, the party is a mess, the Democratic state admin has been pretty flawless, unemployment is down. Political shifts don't happen in a vacuum, there is almost nothing you can point to in the last 24-48 months to argue that the plus side of Trump's ledger has picked up any new credits in this state.

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The 2 issues the GOP wants to run on are border security and the economy. The democrats can respond with real facts if voters want to actually listen. There are a certain amount of voters who already have their minds made up, the democrats need to go after the undecided. But the MAGA Republicans will lie, cheat and steal.

[casimir]

  On 4/3/2024 at 7:13 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Trump is going down in flames.

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I think we've heard this before.  And yet, it didn't happen.

[romad1]

  On 4/4/2024 at 11:03 AM, casimir said:

I think we've heard this before.  And yet, it didn't happen.

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And then it did in 2020. 

[1776]

  On 4/3/2024 at 7:13 PM, 1984Echoes said:

The WSJ is completely in thrall of Trump and MAGA. The polls you quoted, from them, I wouldn't trust as far as I could throw Trump. Which is zero.

All polls are garbage as far as I'm concerned, not just WSJ, until we hit mid-October... from that point, I might take a look. But probably not. I just have no interest there.

And...

Trump is going down in flames.

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I’m not going to argue that polls are unreliable. They have proven to miss the mark frequently in recent elections. However, you must be reading a different WSJ than the one I subscribe to. The WSJ EB has been critical of both Biden and Trump. Trump lost his remaining supporters at WSJ on 1/6. The WSJ writers are absolutely not enamored with Trump. As a whole, they are left of the EB. 

I am of the opinion Trump has a high probability of beating Biden. In my opinion, his greatest failing is to show any concern, other than lip service, toward the southern border. Immigration is viewed as a huge problem. I personally don’t understand how he doesn’t see how damaging this is to his standing with many Americans. Regardless of what the GOP legislators did or didn’t do, it remains the voters impression that Trump attempted to control immigration at the southern border and that Biden hasn’t, just that simple. Politically, I believe the public in general lays the out of control border in Biden’s lap. Right or wrong, I believe that’s the national perception. And you know what they say about perception. 


 

[Motown Bombers]

  On 4/4/2024 at 12:16 PM, 1776 said:

I’m not going to argue that polls are unreliable. They have proven to miss the mark frequently in recent elections. However, you must be reading a different WSJ than the one I subscribe to. The WSJ EB has been critical of both Biden and Trump. Trump lost his remaining supporters at WSJ on 1/6. The WSJ writers are absolutely not enamored with Trump. As a whole, they are left of the EB. 

I am of the opinion Trump has a high probability of beating Biden. In my opinion, his greatest failing is to show any concern, other than lip service, toward the southern border. Immigration is viewed as a huge problem. I personally don’t understand how he doesn’t see how damaging this is to his standing with many Americans. Regardless of what the GOP legislators did or didn’t do, it remains the voters impression that Trump attempted to control immigration at the southern border and that Biden hasn’t, just that simple. Politically, I believe the public in general lays the out of control border in Biden’s lap. Right or wrong, I believe that’s the national perception. And you know what they say about perception. 


 

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He literally endorsed a bipartisan border bill that Republicans killed because Trump told them to. Border crossings are down from the end of Trump's term. It's not the national perception. A lot of people agree Republicans killed the border bill. 

[chasfh]

  On 4/3/2024 at 7:13 PM, 1984Echoes said:

All polls are garbage as far as I'm concerned, not just WSJ, until we hit mid-October... from that point, I might take a look. But probably not. I just have no interest there.

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Exactly!

Well, except …

[1776]

  On 4/3/2024 at 2:14 PM, Sports_Freak said:

I see MAGA folks asking if we were better off 4 years ago. Do they have very short memories or are they stupid?

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The above pictures would have been the exact same regardless of who was in the Oval Office at the time. Supply chains froze due to mandated shut downs around the globe. Small world. We probably took the ugliest hit because our economy prior to this fiasco was doing very well. The shutdowns and locked doors on production facilities produced the pictures you’ve posted.  

[casimir]

  On 4/4/2024 at 11:56 AM, romad1 said:

And then it did in 2020. 

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I don't think that was "down in flames".  Sure, he lost.  Down in flames would have been an absolute ass kicking whereby the (R)s wouldn't consider him as their candidate again.

Semantics aside, I think there's a healthy fear for the upcoming election.  I don't subscribe to the confidence bravado that others seem to have.

[Motown Bombers]

No way Hillary says COVID is a hoax, is just the flu, will be over by easter, suggests to take bleach, sells off stockpile of PPE to China, tells his supporters to liberate Michigan and sends a mob to Lansing, pitches unproven cures, and creates anti-vaxx with a large chunk of the country. More people died per capita in the US than many other industrialized countries. No things wouldn't have been the same. 

[Motown Bombers]

Trump had such an easy term. He only had one crisis. All he had to do was put Mike Pence in charge of the COVID response and say nothing and he probably wins re-election. 

[1776]

  On 4/4/2024 at 12:28 PM, Motown Bombers said:

He literally endorsed a bipartisan border bill that Republicans killed because Trump told them to. Border crossings are down from the end of Trump's term. It's not the national perception. A lot of people agree Republicans killed the border bill. 

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Yes, the Border Bill was defeated because of Trump’s overbearing intimidation on the spineless GOP. Agreed.
My point is, and I repeat, Biden has the authority to act to curb this fiasco. Executive orders are not foreign to Biden. They certainly were not foreign to Trump either. The voting population is, in my opinion, going to hold Biden accountable for not acting within his authority to address the border chaos. 
From the Kamala Harris border “czar” charade at the outset of his administration to the present day demonstrate, or at the very least, gives the impression, that Biden’s administration doesn’t give a crap. I firmly believe that this one issue is going to cost Biden.

As 84 Echoes would say, just my two cents worth from the bleachers. 

 

[romad1]

  On 4/4/2024 at 12:40 PM, casimir said:

I don't think that was "down in flames".  Sure, he lost.  Down in flames would have been an absolute ass kicking whereby the (R)s wouldn't consider him as their candidate again.

Semantics aside, I think there's a healthy fear for the upcoming election.  I don't subscribe to the confidence bravado that others seem to have.

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To quote a friend who was involved in collegiate fencing when they would assess their opponent as being schlubby and not too hard to beat.  "Just don't suck" and you should win. 

Organizing, raising volunteers and motivating voters will all require a clear view of what Trump is and not complacency.   But, fergoshsakes, the voters who voted against Trump in 2020 won't vote for him now.   Biden has all the Haley voters who refuse to vote for Trump.   

Having the massive advantage in money will also have an effect.  I realize that the untraceable effects of Epoch Times newsletters telling the low-intelligence churchie types that Biden is the anti-Christ will have some impact.   Biden will win few rural/white districts but he will destroy Trump in the vote rich suburbs unless he "sucks". 

[1776]

  On 4/4/2024 at 12:48 PM, Motown Bombers said:

Trump had such an easy term. He only had one crisis. All he had to do was put Mike Pence in charge of the COVID response and say nothing and he probably wins re-election. 

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Agree he would have been re-elected had Covid not happened. Don’t know what Pence could have done to avoid what we experienced. The entire exercise was a learning process across the board. 

[Motown Bombers]

  On 4/4/2024 at 1:00 PM, 1776 said:

Agree he would have been re-elected had Covid not happened. Don’t know what Pence could have done to avoid what we experienced. The entire exercise was a learning process across the board. 

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Mike Pence wouldn't have done all the things I listed above. Crises help presidents if you aren't completely incompetent like Trump. 

[mtutiger]

  On 4/4/2024 at 1:00 PM, 1776 said:

Agree he would have been re-elected had Covid not happened. 

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He obviously didn't win reelection regardless, but I do think the lack of door to door canvassing on the D side in 2020 had helped Trump to an extent in that election 

[Motown Bombers]

  On 4/4/2024 at 1:12 PM, mtutiger said:

He obviously didn't win reelection regardless, but I do think the lack of door to door canvassing on the D side in 2020 had helped Trump to an extent in that election 

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I think this affected Biden most in Florida. You need a strong ground game in Miami if you're a Democrat.