2024 Presidential Election thread

[1776]

Just now, mtutiger said:

The border is undoubtedly an area of weakness for Biden, but the idea that it's the only thing that will matter when voters make a choice on Election Day is not grounded in reality.

To clarify, I’m not implying it’s the only thing that will matter. I am saying that I believe it is a bigger issue on the ground than he and his party believe it is. 
 

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The border is undoubtedly an area of weakness for Biden, but the idea that it's the only thing that will matter when voters make a choice on Election Day is not grounded in reality.

The border was an issue in 2020. Almost all of the border states were won by Biden. 

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, 1776 said:

To clarify, I’m not implying it’s the only thing that will matter. I am saying that I believe it is a bigger issue on the ground than he and his party believe it is. 
 

They've literally been campaigning on the bipartisan border bill that Republicans killed. Focus groups in Wisconsin blamed Republicans. 

[The Ronz]

Trump is going to win by a landslide.

I know an extremely diverse group of people and they all are voting for Trump.

All the young people I know, including those voting for the very first time, are voting for Trump.

Do I hope I'm wrong - of course!

[1776]

1 minute ago, The Ronz said:

Trump is going to win by a landslide.

I know an extremely diverse group of people and they all are voting for Trump.

All the young people I know, including those voting for the very first time, are voting for Trump.

Do I hope I'm wrong - of course!

Don’t know about the “landslide” part but if I were a betting person (I’m not) I’d bet on Trump winning. 

[mtutiger]

It's going to be a close election, and I wouldn't put money down on either candidate.

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

They've literally been campaigning on the bipartisan border bill that Republicans killed. Focus groups in Wisconsin blamed Republicans. 

It's also, by significant margin, the most covered issue in political media today.

One can disagree with the approach, but I don't think it's even possible to ignore the issue given how much coverage it gets relative to every other issue facing the electorate.

[romad1]

22 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Out of curiosity, do you want to expound on your point here?

Its an uncomfortable truth that Trump appeals to people who have limited education.  These are not the country club GOP. 

Florida turns deep red and Republican; No longer a battleground state (tallahassee.com)

Quote

The election was the first statewide contest in modern Florida history where more state residents had registered as Republicans than Democrats, setting up the GOP for success. 

The arrival of almost 400,000 new voters in Florida from other states, since the beginning of pandemic lockdowns two years ago has added to Republican ranks.  

These self-sorting voters drawn, at least partly by DeSantis’ hands-off policies toward COVID-19 restrictions registered as Republican over Democrat by a two-to-one margin, analysis shows. 

Quote

New arrivals, new Republicans

Since March 2020, 393,800 voters from other states moved to Florida and registered here, 46% of them, as Republicans, 23% as Democrats and 29%, with no party affiliation, according to L2 Data, which tracks voter and consumer data. The trend was first reported by Florida Politics. 

All told, the new, pandemic-era arrivals represent 3% of Florida’s voters, a big increase, overwhelmingly favoring Republicans. 

Also, 2020 Census data showed that the nation’s fastest-growing metro area was The Villages, the sprawling Central Florida retirement community that also skews heavily Republican. 

Quote

“Basically, Florida is a working-class state, more so than the national average, and that matters,” said Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer who co-edits “The Liberal Patriot” newsletter and has written about Democrats’ problems with working-class voters, including Hispanic voters.  

Ron Filipkowski, a longtime GOP leader in Sarasota County who recently left the party, noticed a change during the end of his involvement.  

When Filipkowski ran a Republican club, most of the active members were “golf course community” Republicans. Now there’s a more diverse group of GOP activists.  

“Trump brought in all these new people,” Filipkowski said. “But the problem for the Republican Party is they’re loyal to Trump. DeSantis is probably the only person out there who has the dual loyalty where that same group of people, and these are largely noncollege people, DeSantis is the only one who seems to get the support of those people.”  

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Trump dismantled the US pandemic response even before COVID. Crisis are good for presidents. It was his opportunity to be a leader and he failed miserably. Bush rode 9/11 to re-election three years after it happened. 

Doesn't whether Trump failed depend on who you ask? Because at least a third of Americans would not agree that he has failed.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Its an uncomfortable truth that Trump appeals to people who have limited education.  These are not the country club GOP. 

Florida turns deep red and Republican; No longer a battleground state (tallahassee.com)

 

A lot of people have left Florida as well. Still less than 50% of those new arrivals registered as Republicans. I think Democrats also have room to retake some of the Hispanic vote. I do think Biden is going to do better than expected with the older population. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

A lot of people have left Florida as well. Still less than 50% of those new arrivals registered as Republicans. I think Democrats also have room to retake some of the Hispanic vote. I do think Biden is going to do better than expected with the older population. 

I agree with this sentiment regarding Biden and older voters. The GOP is still pushing the cut Social Security and Medicare narrative. They are still out there trashing the ACA as well. These are all things that are popular with older voters. Combine that with the obvious dysfunction and bad behavior of Trump and I think that scares and/or turns off a lot of over 60 voters. It also directly threatens their financial wellbeing when you talk about cutting Social Security or rolling back Medicare being able to negotiate lower drug prices.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I agree with this sentiment regarding Biden and older voters. The GOP is still pushing the cut Social Security and Medicare narrative. They are still out there trashing the ACA as well. These are all things that are popular with older voters. Combine that with the obvious dysfunction and bad behavior of Trump and I think that scares and/or turns off a lot of over 60 voters. It also directly threatens their financial wellbeing when you talk about cutting Social Security or rolling back Medicare being able to negotiate lower drug prices.

I mean, if people are going to believe the polls that say Trump is ahead they should also believe those same polls that say Biden is gaining with older people. 

[Sports_Freak]

41 minutes ago, 1776 said:

My point again is that the perception/reality is that Biden is ignoring the border issues. That’s all that matters when voters make a choice on Election Day. They’re not going to care what courts ruled what. And it’s not just MAGA folks either. They see a president that appears to be just fine with the current state of things. 

Again, the question is; were you better off 4 years ago? Distract and distort is the GOP strategy. Without bringing up the border, Taylor Swift or the price of tennis shoes, the answer to that simple question, for 95% of Americans, is no.

[Motown Bombers]

Republicans will push to win Minnesota which hasn't been won by a Republican in over 50 years but Florida is too impossible for Democrats even though the margin in Florida was half of what it was in Minnesota. 

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I agree with this sentiment regarding Biden and older voters. The GOP is still pushing the cut Social Security and Medicare narrative. They are still out there trashing the ACA as well. These are all things that are popular with older voters. Combine that with the obvious dysfunction and bad behavior of Trump and I think that scares and/or turns off a lot of over 60 voters. It also directly threatens their financial wellbeing when you talk about cutting Social Security or rolling back Medicare being able to negotiate lower drug prices.

MB is speaking specifically to Florida here, but the blue wall states are all above average in terms of age as well.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Republicans will push to win Minnesota which hasn't been won by a Republican in over 50 years but Florida is too impossible for Democrats even though the margin in Florida was half of what it was in Minnesota. 

Outside of maybe Illinois, Minnesota's population is probably the most suburban of any of Midwestern state.... and something like 65% of it's population lives in and around the Twin Cities.

It's much more inhospitable ground for the GOP than it is generally given credit for.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Outside of maybe Illinois, Minnesota's population is probably the most suburban of any of Midwestern state.... and something like 65% of it's population lives in and around the Twin Cities.

It's much more inhospitable ground for the GOP than it is generally given credit for.

The one larger rural area, Duluth, tends to go Democratic. Minnesota is never a landslide, usually high single digits, so it's always so tempting. I think Trump wasted a lot of time in Minnesota in 2020 instead of trying to shore up Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

The one larger rural area, Duluth, tends to go Democratic. Minnesota is never a landslide, usually high single digits, so it's always so tempting. I think Trump wasted a lot of time in Minnesota in 2020 instead of trying to shore up Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

The memory of Trump coming with a point in 2016 looms large in how people approach talking about the state. But part of why he managed to (and part of how he managed to win MI/PA/WI in 2016) was that he managed to retain just enough support in suburban areas to go along with the significant gains he made in the rural areas of the Midwest. 

I think it's one of the most politically misunderstood states in the country, tbh... it often gets lumped in with MI/PA/WI, but given how much more suburbanized it is versus those states, it's much different and the shift that happened in 2020 in Minnesota shouldn't have been that surprising to anyone.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

The memory of Trump coming with a point in 2016 looms large in how people approach talking about the state. But part of why he managed to (and part of how he managed to win MI/PA/WI in 2016) was that he managed to retain just enough support in suburban areas to go along with the significant gains he made in the rural areas of the Midwest. 

I think it's one of the most politically misunderstood states in the country, tbh... it often gets lumped in with MI/PA/WI, but given how much more suburbanized it is versus those states, it's much different and the shift that happened in 2020 in Minnesota shouldn't have been that surprising to anyone.

I think Trump's play for Minnesota in 2020 was entirely because only lost by a point in 2016 and wanted revenge. Minnesota is less industrialized and more college educated than most Midwestern states and less black than places like Michigan. That's not the trend that is favoring Republicans. 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, 1776 said:

My point again is that the perception/reality is that Biden is ignoring the border issues. That’s all that matters when voters make a choice on Election Day. They’re not going to care what courts ruled what. And it’s not just MAGA folks either. They see a president that appears to be just fine with the current state of things. 

Even Fox News is blaming the GOP and Trump for the border crisis;

 

[CMRivdogs]

32 minutes ago, romad1 said:

It’s an uncomfortable truth that Trump appeals to people who have limited education.  These are not the country club GOP. 

 

 

Throw in a large number of very rich people who pay people next to nothing to do their bidding.

Because taxes…

[1776]

18 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Again, the question is; were you better off 4 years ago? Distract and distort is the GOP strategy. Without bringing up the border, Taylor Swift or the price of tennis shoes, the answer to that simple question, for 95% of Americans, is no.

The article attached is interesting. Point being in this piece, realistically, the economy is better than people give it credit for. However, the general perception remains that the economy is not good. So again, folks will vote according to their perception of things, not necessarily according to the actual numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/whats-wrong-with-the-economy-its-you-not-the-data-cfa911e6?mod=mhp
 

 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, 1776 said:

The article attached is interesting. Point being in this piece, realistically, the economy is better than people give it credit for. However, the general perception remains that the economy is not good. So again, folks will vote according to their perception of things, not necessarily according to the actual numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/whats-wrong-with-the-economy-its-you-not-the-data-cfa911e6?mod=mhp
 

 

Perception on the economy is improving. There's usually a lag. Inflation was baked in in 2022. Republicans ran on inflation in 2022. Dems won and suddenly the border is the hot button issue now. 

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Perception on the economy is improving.

It goes back to the Wayne Gretzky quote.... where the puck is going, not where it's been.

Edited April 4, 2024 by mtutiger

[Sports_Freak]

14 minutes ago, 1776 said:

The article attached is interesting. Point being in this piece, realistically, the economy is better than people give it credit for. However, the general perception remains that the economy is not good. So again, folks will vote according to their perception of things, not necessarily according to the actual numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/whats-wrong-with-the-economy-its-you-not-the-data-cfa911e6?mod=mhp
 

 

Find data from 4 years ago to answer the MAGA question. I'm much better off than I was 4 years ago. And the local church doesn't have traffic jams of people in SUVs trying to get boxes of food to feed their families.