2024 Presidential Election thread

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Election in India a mixed bag for Modi but a big loss for polllng, which missed by a mile

I didn't follow anything other than the election results. Did the polling show Modi and BJP were set to have a big wave election and sweeping victories nationwide?

[Motown Bombers]

Just got polled for the first time ever. It was for MI-10. My only options were John James and Carl Marlinga so I think it may have been a Marlinga internal. Emily Busch is also running for the Dems. It asked me to chose one option why I'm not voting for James and I had trouble just choosing one. I settled on he was slow to accept defeat and is supported by people who wanted to overturn the election. It was between that or abortion. They also had his stance on ending social security and taking millions of tax dollars and providing 0 jobs. Sucks I could only choose one. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

What's the point of Trump having a vetting process for Vice President? The point of vetting is to ensure something bad won't come out about them. What could come out about the VP candidate that could be worse than what the guy at the top did?

[Motor City Sonics]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What's the point of Trump having a vetting process for Vice President? The point of vetting is to ensure something bad won't come out about them. What could come out about the VP candidate that could be worse than what the guy at the top did?

A puppy murderer. 

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Did the polling show Modi and BJP were set to have a big wave election and sweeping victories nationwide?

yup

[chasfh]

On 6/5/2024 at 1:54 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What's the point of Trump having a vetting process for Vice President? The point of vetting is to ensure something bad won't come out about them. What could come out about the VP candidate that could be worse than what the guy at the top did?

He’s vetting for maximum loyalty for certainty of pardon, if it comes to that. 

[CMRivdogs]

Real Republicans don't shop at Kohl's anyway...

I guess Walmart is still available

[Motown Bombers]

 

[oblong]

Is the help they are getting the result of “socialism”?

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

Dr Phil is suppose to be a psychiatrist right? He's suppose to be able to assess personalities right?

 

[Edman85]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Is that account affiliated with the Biden campaign? I've seen it a lot lately, but seems like a trolly engagement farmer.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

Is that account affiliated with the Biden campaign? I've seen it a lot lately, but seems like a trolly engagement farmer.

It's Biden's official rapid response account. I believe it's run by the same people who ran Fetterman's social media. 

[romad1]

feels like a trap...but for whom?

 

[Motown Bombers]

I don’t understand why people treat Florida as if it’s a ruby red state like Idaho. Trump won Florida by the same margin Biden won Michigan. There have been nine statewide elections in Michigan since 2016 and all have been won by Democrats. Michigan is considered a tossup and Florida is off the table. Biden has already opened a campaign office in Florida. It’s also one of the only opportunities to flip a senate seat. 

[Edman85]

Abortion is on the ballot in Florida too, which adds another wrinkle.

I will quadriannually caution against using individual polls to come to conclusions though. Even though 538 is a fraction of what it was, their polling averages are probably a better measure, factoring in quality and biases of polls.

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Abortion is on the ballot in Florida too, which adds another wrinkle.

I will quadriannually caution against using individual polls to come to conclusions though. Even though 538 is a fraction of what it was, their polling averages are probably a better measure, factoring in quality and biases of polls.

Polls are definitely broken.   

[Edman85]

Just now, romad1 said:

Polls are definitely broken.   

They are broken, but people who publicize individual anomalous polls may exaggerate the extent of their disarray by fundamentally misunderstanding their nature.

[romad1]

17 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

They are broken, but people who publicize individual anomalous polls may exaggerate the extent of their disarray by fundamentally misunderstanding their nature.

there are a lot of bad faith polls in the system that are used to generate reaction. 

[Motown Bombers]

I’ll just drop this here

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[oblong]

DeSantis and his cronies will play dirty trying to prevent any unfavorable results from becoming official.  That's what worries me the most in this election cycle.  Too many times in the process things get certified by previously anonymous civil servants and at some point that machine will break and we'll see challenges, unfounded, and bad actors. 

 

[Motown Bombers]

Voter suppression will be an issue in Florida, however, the secretary of state for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are all Democrats. The only swing state that has a Republican secretary of state is Georgia and that is Raffensberger who didn't give into Trump although he is fine with voter suppression. 

[Edman85]

Another Florida factor, based on people I've talked to, is how a significant amount of DeSantis die hards may go to RFKJ

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Voter suppression will be an issue in Florida, however, the secretary of state for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are all Democrats. The only swing state that has a Republican secretary of state is Georgia and that is Raffensberger who didn't give into Trump although he is fine with voter suppression. 

Georgia still ranks middle of the pack in 'voting access', right with Michigan.  Plus turnout went up in their last election and first since the new laws.  It's definitely still in play for Biden and I see no reason to be concerned about state officials for Georgia.