Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Michigan ranks 2nd in the country in the Election Performance Index. Georgia is 11th which is good but that doesn't capture that Georgia has been purging thousands of registered voters since 2020 that Michigan hasn't been doing. One thing where Georgia is worse than Michigan is average wait time to vote. It is over double in Georgia and the wait times are longer in black democratic areas like Atlanta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 4 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I’ll just drop this here If only I could be one of those 272,000 (laid off last week as my job and many of my coworkers’ jobs were outsourced)! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 5 hours ago, oblong said: DeSantis and his cronies will play dirty trying to prevent any unfavorable results from becoming official. That's what worries me the most in this election cycle. Too many times in the process things get certified by previously anonymous civil servants and at some point that machine will break and we'll see challenges, unfounded, and bad actors. I think a lot about this too. I think in general Trump and Trumpism have been a stress test on our system and very many spots are very much dependent on the integrity of individuals. It's made me definitely change how much I value integrity in terms of who to support whereas before I was much more policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 11 minutes ago, pfife said: I think a lot about this too. I think in general Trump and Trumpism have been a stress test on our system and very many spots are very much dependent on the integrity of individuals. It's made me definitely change how much I value integrity in terms of who to support whereas before I was much more policy. I don't know the process in FL of certification but if Biden were to win a close race I struggle to see some GOP people just going "Ok, cool." then rubber stamp the results. I can envision election offices being raided and ballots spoiled for any recount then we get a crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 I mean, we saw before what can happen in Florida if an election is close and the presidency is riding on Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I’ll just drop this here This may not be the news you think it is. The first reports following this release this morning was that we shouldn’t expect rates to come down so soon as was hoped for. Higher rates for longer aren’t what most workers are hoping for. Consumers, particularly blue collar workers, are under a lot of weight right now. The news is a catch 22 to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Even Fox News couldn't come up with that kind of spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Even Fox News couldn't come up with that kind of spin. Econ 101. Give it a shot. You might learn something. Edited June 7 by 1776 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 minute ago, 1776 said: Econ 101. Give it a shot. You might learn something. I didn't ask for your opinion on rates. I simply posted the job numbers. When I want your opinion I will give it to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I didn't ask for your opinion on rates. I simply posted the job numbers. When I want your opinion I will give it to you. In other words…clueless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Just now, 1776 said: In other words…clueless. I work in a bank. I'm well aware of the rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, Tigerbomb13 said: If only I could be one of those 272,000 (laid off last week as my job and many of my coworkers’ jobs were outsourced)! Oh man I'm sorry to hear that. What field are you in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 The funny thing is that I'm in a weekly conference call where the CFO discusses the rates, trends and potential impacts. It's every Friday so I was literally just on the call this morning. It was mostly positive. My notes from the call were; the 10 year treasury yield was down under 4.3% from a recent high of 4.7%, mortgage volume has increased, inflation is trending down, and we still anticipate a rate cut sometime between September and November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: The funny thing is that I'm in a weekly conference call where the CFO discusses the rates, trends and potential impacts. It's every Friday so I was literally just on the call this morning. It was mostly positive. My notes from the call were; the 10 year treasury yield was down under 4.3% from a recent high of 4.7%, mortgage volume has increased, inflation is trending down, and we still anticipate a rate cut sometime between September and November. Don't forget the difference between banking and Wall Street: WS is squirrelly. Layoffs = GOOD! and Big New Employment numbers = BAD!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Sadly, I have a hard time trusting any economic data coming out of Washington these days. The Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are supposed to be non-biased and impartial. Maybe they are, but so is our Supreme Court. We have witnessed what has gone on there. If the supposed highest bar of fairness and justice can be corrupted, then any of these other institutions can. I keep asking myself if Trump were in office and all of these key data providing offices were housed by his appointees during an election year, would they manipulate the numbers to make him look better. Absolutely they would. Frankly, Democrats would be dumb not to take the same advantages when they have the power. There’s no such thing as cheating when someone else has rigged the game. We saw what happened when they went high, when the other guys went low. We got Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Don't forget the difference between banking and Wall Street: WS is squirrelly. Layoffs = GOOD! and Big New Employment numbers = BAD!!! This was spun to be bad news for blue collar workers that have no interest in Wall Street. I was told that we shouldn't expect rates to come down as soon as hoped. Our projections of by November have remained unchanged. People are still buying houses. They are still buying cars and boats. Still going on vacation. Default rates have remained unchanged. Wage increases, especially in lower to middle income ranges, is outpacing inflation. Consumer confidence is up. What is in trouble is commercial lending. Vacancy rates are at all time highs with more people working from home post COVID. Lenders over leveraged in commercial real estate could really be in a world of hurt soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 3 minutes ago, Hongbit said: Sadly, I have a hard time trusting any economic data coming out of Washington these days. The Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are supposed to be non-biased and impartial. Maybe they are, but so is our Supreme Court. We have witnessed what has gone on there. If the supposed highest bar of fairness and justice can be corrupted, then any of these other institutions can. I keep asking myself if Trump were in office and all of these key data providing offices were housed by his appointees during an election year, would they manipulate the numbers to make him look better. Absolutely they would. Frankly, Democrats would be dumb not to take the same advantages when they have the power. There’s no such thing as cheating when someone else has rigged the game. We saw what happened when they went high, when the other guys went low. We got Trump. I trust the numbers that were released by the various bureaus under Trump. I mean, if they were lying, they would have made it better during COVID so Trump could get re-elected. I don't trust anything Trump says about the numbers. In a second administration I could see things being different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Gas prices are going to go down because of Biden. Amazing how someone in cognitive decline can break OPEC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 (edited) 55 minutes ago, pfife said: Oh man I'm sorry to hear that. What field are you in? Staffing. Worked for one of the bigger ones that is based in Michigan. The current CEO is gutting the company, and most of its US operations are being outsourced, department by department. My sister and girlfriend also worked there and were outsourced in December. Spent the last two months training my replacement in the Philippines, and it was going pretty poorly and they fired him a week before my last day. There’s going to be a lot of clients leaving due to this, and they are really going to regret doing this by saving money in the short term in the sake of service. I do have a severance that will get me through most of summer. Edited June 7 by Tigerbomb13 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, 1776 said: This may not be the news you think it is. The first reports following this release this morning was that we shouldn’t expect rates to come down so soon as was hoped for. Higher rates for longer aren’t what most workers are hoping for. Consumers, particularly blue collar workers, are under a lot of weight right now. The news is a catch 22 to be honest. At this point, even under the most radical case the fed still isn’t going to cut more than 25 basis points before the election, which isn’t going to affect much of anything in the real world. So it’s all psychological and people will spin things every which way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: This was spun to be bad news for blue collar workers that have no interest in Wall Street. I was told that we shouldn't expect rates to come down as soon as hoped. Our projections of by November have remained unchanged. People are still buying houses. They are still buying cars and boats. Still going on vacation. Default rates have remained unchanged. Wage increases, especially in lower to middle income ranges, is outpacing inflation. Consumer confidence is up. What is in trouble is commercial lending. Vacancy rates are at all time highs with more people working from home post COVID. Lenders over leveraged in commercial real estate could really be in a world of hurt soon. On board with this 100%. In fact, I have a friend in real estate (residential) and told her when the pandemic hit and all the offices were closing... That commercial real estate would be permanently damaged. I told her she should be glad she's in residential. Everyone was going to find out that there is/(were) zero, or close to zero problems with working at home, if someone is back office. VPN's work perfectly fine for accounting, etc... Not so much for the manufacturing guys... they actually have to use their hands to create... But almost every business was going to find out that they didn't need all that expensive office space... and commercial real estate will never be the same. However much it is able to recover.. it will NOT be the same as pre-pandemic. Other than that.. the economy is AWESOME... IMO. But I will be happy when Wall Street quits stressing about the Fed. They're missing the point... just look at Corp profits which are up, up, and up... If/when they decide to drop a quarter point - September maybe - who cares? Again, don't miss the point... profits are way up. As is employment, wages, inflation is getting tamed... What else do they freaking want? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 On 6/7/2024 at 2:56 PM, Motown Bombers said: I didn't ask for your opinion on rates. I simply posted the job numbers. When I want your opinion I will give it to you. If you don't want to hear opinions, then don't post anything online. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 VA residents CMVRIV, others...do you think VA is even close? I think Project 2025 would mean the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area would shift blue hard over that. If the election is decided on the basis of everyone in the state who isn't loyal to Trump losing his gig and a destruction of the civil service system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 On 6/7/2024 at 2:35 PM, 1776 said: This may not be the news you think it is. The first reports following this release this morning was that we shouldn’t expect rates to come down so soon as was hoped for. Higher rates for longer aren’t what most workers are hoping for. Consumers, particularly blue collar workers, are under a lot of weight right now. The news is a catch 22 to be honest. Continued high rates are bad news for investors (both big and small) and people trying to buy a house or another major purchase. I am not sure why unchanged rates would be bad for the average worker though. The problem for the average worker is inflation. The catch 22 is that inflaton might not go away as long as we have continued economic growth and high employment. Then again, most people would rather pay high prices than be unemployed, so it's hard to root for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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