gehringer_2 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 (edited) On 6/7/2024 at 3:47 PM, Motown Bombers said: What is in trouble is commercial lending. Vacancy rates are at all time highs with more people working from home post COVID. Lenders over leveraged in commercial real estate could really be in a world of hurt soon. Yup. The supply is not very elastic - it won't just fall because prices do and it's hard to convert to other uses. The only way to get rid of office space is conversion to residential, but commercial buildings tend to have wide interior spaces which make them undesirable for conversion to residential because people demand windows. The other segment that is going to hit a similar demand drop crisis is refining. It costs a fortune to decommission a refinery and it's cost prohibitive to run it at low capacity factor. It's not so much an issue from the banking sector as real estate, but when the US eventually finds itself with 50 million EVs on the road and way, way long on gasoline production capacity, the collapse of oil co profits is going generate a lot of howling and gnashing of teeth on Wall Street. Some of majors have already sold off refinery capacity to independents who will probably declare bankruptcy and leave the public on the hook for cleaning up abandoned facilities. Edited June 9 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: ... but when the US eventually finds itself with 50 million EVs on the road and way, way... Exports of refined oil products will sky rocket... And will also change from gasoline-dominant to lubricant and other miscellaneous oil-derivative products So... I'm not certain how much risk/ exposure there actually is in this area... but I think it's a little bit less than 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 16 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Exports of refined oil products will sky rocket... And will also change from gasoline-dominant to lubricant and other miscellaneous oil-derivative products So... I'm not certain how much risk/ exposure there actually is in this area... but I think it's a little bit less than 100%. Sure, you will have an oil industry - lubricants, plastics production, those are small by volume compared to fuel. What will keep it going in largest volume in the immediate future is Diesel and Jet fuel, as non fossil replacement techs there are still over the horizon. But Gasoline is 60-70% of every barrel refined today. And the rest of the world is going to follow the path to EVs so you probably can't count on that much increased export. The refineries that remain operative will need to be reconfigured to re-balance output between gasoline and diesel, which will also cost the refiners a fortune in capital expense for the facilities they can keep open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Yeah that’s a solid case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Just now, romad1 said: Yeah that’s a solid case. Don’t fret over the horseshoe types on the left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 4 hours ago, romad1 said: VA residents CMVRIV, others...do you think VA is even close? I think Project 2025 would mean the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area would shift blue hard over that. If the election is decided on the basis of everyone in the state who isn't loyal to Trump losing his gig and a destruction of the civil service system. I think +4-5 should be close to what we can expect this far out. Between federal employees in NoVa and defense contractors in NoVa and Hampton Roads. There's probably enough dissatisfaction with Gov Youngkin as well to swing the vote. But then my Trump district congresscritter keeps getting re-elected because he's an ATM for the shipyards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Same as it ever was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: That's not going to sink into their cement heads. But I don't see how he can get any more truthful. He doesn't give a rat's ass about them. He does care about getting that tax package passed (already done) that lines his pockets and all the other 1%'ers with gold. If he has to jack up middle class taxes in order to pay for all his deficit spending (I know pandemic... but ALSO $1 trillion annually from those tax cuts so he can line his pockets)... he will. If he has to **** all over Social Security & Medicare in order to keep his pockets lined with those tax cuts... he will. He's a criminal. A con-artist. A house of cards. And he knows it. He wants the Presidency specifically to avoid prison. He doesn't want to President. He wants to save his ass. "You grotesque ****ing brainless MAGATS... please save my ass." After that... He can **** everybody out of their civil liberties, freedoms, pack ALL the courts and governmental agencies with boot-licking political hack sycophants, and complete the destruction of the United States and its Rule of Law and its Constitutional government and voting. No more voting. Just a simple fascist dictatorship. "I don't give a **** about you." "I just want all the money and to not go to prison while I rape this country some more." "Thank you very much for voting for me, you imbeciles." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 This probably belongs here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: So, its a story about the ship having a battery near water. He's never heard the question before, somehow there is a shark approximately 10 yards over there but there are a lot of sharks who are misunderstood but really its because Big Shark wants to have you eaten by sharks. But, you might be electrocuted by the battery if the boat is sinking. Mr. big brain had never heard that before because only a 6 year old would ask it. I don't think Biden's team will have to go far for material. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: I see Tiger 337 laughs at this. This guy could win and even if he doesn't he'll probably get about 48-49% of the vote. It's not funny, it's scary as hell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 17 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: .... It's not funny, it's scary as hell. It's worse than ****ing scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 I'm starting to think gag orders and sitting in court for hours on end may have helped him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 4 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said: Same as it ever was. Sure he can come right out and say he doesn't care about you,he only cares about your vote, but the funny part is, people were laughing at this as though he were joking. They don't think he's serious, but if he were ever serious about anything, it's this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 18 minutes ago, chasfh said: Sure he can come right out and say he doesn't care about you,he only cares about your vote, but the funny part is, people were laughing at this as though he were joking. They don't think he's serious, but if he were ever serious about anything, it's this. I don't know how anybody could possibly watch Dump and think that he cares about about anybody other than himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 (edited) 3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said: I see Tiger 337 laughs at this. This guy could win and even if he doesn't he'll probably get about 48-49% of the vote. It's not funny, it's scary as hell. I expect him to win and it sucks. I still don't think he is smart enough or organized enough to do the damage people think. The scarier part to me is how many Americans actually would like to see him to do these scary things and how stupid they are to actually believe anything he says. Edited June 10 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 8 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I don't know how anybody could possibly watch Dump and think that he cares about about anybody other than himself. They think he cares about America and them because that's what their media are telling them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: They were there long enough to pick up their Trump Crowd checks. They'll still vote for him however because BIDEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 29 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: But Trump is WINNING THE POLLS!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: But Trump is WINNING THE POLLS!!! Giant Red Wave in 2022 ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Talk of Trump refusing the drug test for the probation interview. He's nervous about the Adderall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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