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2024 Presidential Election thread


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20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Maybe the message is people just don't like Joe Biden and don't want someone old to be President. In swing state after swing state we see Democratic Senate candidates performing better than Joe Biden. Why might that be?

Well gee were these people during the primary? Why did Democrats wait until after the primary to plot their coup?

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Many of us wanted a competitive primary process and we should have had one to vet Biden sooner. No one of note stepped up and so we didn't get one. Take a look though at poll after poll though in every swing state that has a competitive US Senate race. They almost all show Biden trailing the Dems Senate candidate. Bob Casey in PA, Elissa Slotkin in MI, Jacky Rosen in NV, Sherrod Brown in OH, Tammy Baldwin in WI are all performing better than Biden in polls. So it doesn't seem as if the Democratic brand itself is toxic or wildly unpopular where all Dems are just universally polling and performing poorly. It seems to be relegated, at this point, to the man at the top of the ticket.

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Many of us wanted a competitive primary process and we should have had one to vet Biden sooner. No one of note stepped up and so we didn't get one. Take a look though at poll after poll though in every swing state that has a competitive US Senate race. They almost all show Biden trailing the Dems Senate candidate. Bob Casey in PA, Elissa Slotkin in MI, Jacky Rosen in NV, Sherrod Brown in OH, Tammy Baldwin in WI are all performing better than Biden in polls. So it doesn't seem as if the Democratic brand itself is toxic or wildly unpopular where all Dems are just universally polling and performing poorly. It seems to be relegated, at this point, to the man at the top of the ticket.

Yet Emerson also released a poll today that asked about a number of different alternatives and, lo and behold, none of them are really doing better than Joe Biden.

Some of that is name recognition, but the idea that any other candidate would be matching Tammy Baldwin in a hypothetical Wisconsin poll is, at best, an unproven assertion at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Many of us wanted a competitive primary process and we should have had one to vet Biden sooner. No one of note stepped up and so we didn't get one. Take a look though at poll after poll though in every swing state that has a competitive US Senate race. They almost all show Biden trailing the Dems Senate candidate. Bob Casey in PA, Elissa Slotkin in MI, Jacky Rosen in NV, Sherrod Brown in OH, Tammy Baldwin in WI are all performing better than Biden in polls. So it doesn't seem as if the Democratic brand itself is toxic or wildly unpopular where all Dems are just universally polling and performing poorly. It seems to be relegated, at this point, to the man at the top of the ticket.

That’s good. Once Democrats stop wetting themselves and change their soiled underpants, they’ll come around on Biden. 

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

AARP was June 28 to July 2 and Bloomberg was July 1 to July 5. Also, Kennedy isn’t even on the ballot in Wisconsin so not sure why AARP included him. 

Thanks.... that's interesting.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yet Emerson also released a poll today that asked about a number of different alternatives and, lo and behold, none of them are really doing better than Joe Biden.

Some of that is name recognition, but the idea that any other candidate would be matching Tammy Baldwin in a hypothetical Wisconsin poll is, at best, an unproven assertion at this point.

I would just add that if people are unable to engage in the tradeoffs and risks associated with both sticking with Biden but also switching horses and either going with Harris or (even more fantasyland) having a firehouse primary in Chicago, it's going to be really hard to engage in good faith on this.

I watched a clip of Jon Stewart's show last night discussing his preferred fantasyland scenario - absolutely zero self reflection as to the downsides of his hypothetical scenario, it's all perfect and good and that's that. 

Edited by mtutiger
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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I can't stand Jon Stewart anymore. His contrarian both sides may have worked 15-20 years ago but not anymore.  

I liked him back in the day, but I was also a lot less pragmatic and understood the world a lot less 15 years ago than I do now. Things like understanding how my experience might be different from others experience, not projecting my views onto others with different experiences, etc. 

I will give him credit in that he's a really good and tough interviewer, especially with people with opposing views. At least compared to Bill Maher.

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Food for thought....

I still don't think Biden's out of the woods, but the lack of a unified response by those wishing for him to step aside was a mistake. And at some level, it goes back to the fact that many of the folks who had spent months leading up to the debate making arguments about Biden stepping aside never leveled with their readers with the reality that Kamala Harris, for many reasons that don't need to be rehashed, is pretty much the only realistic option.

When you look at who Biden's strongest soldiers are at the moment in Congress (the Congressional Black Caucus), one wonders whether these many pundits who dreamed aloud of Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro may have impacted the thinking.

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3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

She's saying this publicly?  Won't she go to jail for destroying Democracy by encouraging her delegates to vote for another candidate?

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1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

She's saying this publicly?  Won't she go to jail for destroying Democracy by encouraging her delegates to vote for another candidate?

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. She didn't win the nomination and she's not saying the candidate who did win the nomination should step aside and be replace by someone who won zero delegates and earned zero votes. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's remarkable to me the Dems are plotting an open coup and want to disregard the voters and have former presidents pick the candidate. Then they'll run on democracy and respecting the results of an election. 

As an outsider looking in, I find it fascinating and hilarious that you keep trying to play this game.  The same Dems that put up road blocks for Sanders and flat out made it nearly impossible anyone could run against Biden this time around.  

I will say the right wing message i'm hearing right now are two fold.

- Biden, as his party is making the case that losing this election will end our democracy, is content with doing his best.  If he does his best there will be no regrets from him.

- Whitmer, Newsom, and others are waiting for 2028, which is odd considering if Biden loses there will be no ability for them to run.

Edited by ewsieg
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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. She didn't win the nomination and she's not saying the candidate who did win the nomination should step aside and be replace by someone who won zero delegates and earned zero votes. 

But she did win those delegates, those people voted for her and now she's telling them to vote for someone else!  It's an assault on our democracy!!!!  

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1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

As an outsider looking in, I find it fascinating and hilarious that you keep trying to play this game.  The same Dems that put up road blocks for Sanders and flat out made it nearly impossible anyone could run against Biden this time around.  

I will say the right wing message i'm hearing right now are two fold.

- Biden, as his party is making the case that losing this election will end our democracy, is content with doing his best.  If he does his best their will be no regrets from him.

- Whitmer, Newsom, and others are waiting for 2028, which is odd considering if Biden loses there will be no ability for them to run.

They didn't put up road blocks for Bernie Sanders. Hillary got 3.5 million more votes than Sanders. They then changed the rules because Sanders whined and he still lost by millions of votes to Biden. 

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1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

But she did win those delegates, those people voted for her and now she's telling them to vote for someone else!  It's an assault on our democracy!!!!  

She didn't win the nomination. Dems right now are openly plotting removing Biden as the nominee and replacing him with an unelected candidate. It's literally not the same thing. 

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4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

As an outsider looking in, I find it fascinating and hilarious that you keep trying to play this game.  The same Dems that put up road blocks for Sanders and flat out made it nearly impossible anyone could run against Biden this time around.  

A couple of points:

1. Given that Biden is an incumbent, a competitive primary would have actually gone *against* precedent. Trump 2020, Obama 2012, Bush 2004... None of those guys got big name challengers did they?

We can argue whether or not the situation with Biden is distinct, but let's not act like this isn't basically normal.

2. I imagine that Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker and others did polling on this race (Newsom in particular is rumored to have fielded a poll) and they found they would get their ass kicked.

Maybe it plays out differently in reality, but the incentives weren't there for any of these guys and gals to throw their hat on the ring and risk their political careers

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She didn't win the nomination. Dems right now are openly plotting removing Biden as the nominee and replacing him with an unelected candidate. It's literally not the same thing. 

Some are, most are inquiring on the 'what if' serious conversations with Biden (and donors) change Biden's mind.  

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Just now, ewsieg said:

Some are, most are inquiring on the 'what if' serious conversations with Biden (and donors) change Biden's mind.  

The time for that conversation was two years ago. We had an election. Biden won. You can't just replace a candidate this late in the game. 

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