2024 Presidential Election thread

[Motown Bombers]

Scholten doesn't mention Harris, doesn't mention a successor, doesn't mention any plan, doesn't mention any data, just pure fantasy. 

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Dems keep doing it. This has just got to be self sabotage at this point. 

 

In 1956 American didn't blink twice before re-electing a man that had just had a major coronary - in an era before statins, beta-blockers, stents or bypass surgery options, and his VP was 'effing Richard Nixon. Go figure.

I guess the fact that he was a Republican speaks for itself.....😉

Edited July 11, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

Or, just go with me here, maybe if you 1) Believe the DNC narrative that this may be our last election if Trump wins and 2) Think you can't beat Trump with Biden, maybe you should be vocal about it instead of worrying about your standing in the party?  Is this not the same forum that praises Cheney and Kinzinger for speaking out against their party and mocks the rest for 'knowing Trump sucks' but just going with it?

Yesterday's Bulwark had Ezra Klein on it and he stated that off the record, every major democrat he's talked to about this has told him they don't think Biden can beat Trump, but would prefer not to disrupt the apple cart and are resigned to the fact that they'll lose and just to get ready to win it back in 2028.

Or we had a primary, we chose Biden, he is what's between us and Project 2025, so we better get behind Biden.

[Motown Bombers]

There's got to be some sort of collusion. Some donor is taking these Dems hostage. 

[romad1]

I would say its even money we have a new US president by midnight. 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Or we had a primary, we chose Biden, he is what's between us and Project 2025, so we better get behind Biden.

Or maybe Ezra Klein (who I love BTW) is suffering a case of Pauline Kael syndrome.....😉

[Motown Bombers]

I don't know why these better and younger candidates didn't just run in the primary? Has any candidate even said they would run in replace of Biden? It's like these Dems support a mythical candidate. 

[romad1]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I don't know why these better and younger candidates didn't just run in the primary? Has any candidate even said they would run in replace of Biden? It's like these Dems support a mythical candidate. 

Because the "elites" told them that Biden was the candidate, and these party elites made a full-court press to keep the young blood out of the primary to avoid damaging the incumbent.  You have to be smart enough to see that happened.  Please don't gaslight us anymore with this stuff about how nobody did the necessary back in the primary season.  

The facts are the facts.  Biden is polling poorly considering how bad Trump is.  

[ewsieg]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Or we had a primary, we chose Biden, he is what's between us and Project 2025, so we better get behind Biden.

Exactly, it is what it is.  We let Biden give it the 'ole college try and hope he's gotten better since his college days (since he sucked at that).  In the end, if Trump wins, we can all feel good about the fact that he tried his best.  

In fact you forced me to take the L on this so bad that I'm rethinking my entire political thoughts over the last 8-9 years.  It's been extensively reported that so many top republicans made a ton of attempts to stop Trump initially and even from running again.  Most never publicly did it, but they really tried behind the scenes and that's all that should really count.  Guess I shouldn't hold that against them and consider voting for republicans again.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, romad1 said:

Because the "elites" told them that Biden was the candidate, and these party elites made a full-court press to keep the young blood out of the primary to avoid damaging the incumbent.  You have to be smart enough to see that happened.  Please don't gaslight us anymore with this stuff about how nobody did the necessary back in the primary season.  

The facts are the facts.  Biden is polling poorly considering how bad Trump is.  

The elites are literally trying to get Biden off the ballot. Where is the polling that anyone else is doing better?

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I would say its even money we have a new US president by midnight. 

Given the election logistics, that might not be the right move. If Biden really thinks he has to save the election by stepping aside, isn't now the wrong time? Can you even get anyone on all 50 state ballots? Maybe he goes to a podium - turns the campaign over to Harris and pledges to resign on Jan 21 after a Dem win and he and Harris are sworn in. 

Edited July 11, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

Exactly, it is what it is.  We let Biden give it the 'ole college try and hope he's gotten better since his college days (since he sucked at that).  In the end, if Trump wins, we can all feel good about the fact that he tried his best.  

In fact you forced me to take the L on this so bad that I'm rethinking my entire political thoughts over the last 8-9 years.  It's been extensively reported that so many top republicans made a ton of attempts to stop Trump initially and even from running again.  Most never publicly did it, but they really tried behind the scenes and that's all that should really count.  Guess I shouldn't hold that against them and consider voting for republicans again.

I mean, no Republicans in congress are trying to force Trump off the ballot after he won the primary and has 34 felony convictions. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Given the election logistics, that might not be the right move. If Biden really thinks he has to save the election by stepping aside, isn't now the wrong time? Can you even get anyone on all 50 state ballots? Maybe he goes to a podium - turns the campaign over to Harris and pledges to resign on Jan 21 after a Dem win and he and Harris are sworn in. 

The SCOTUS will simply rule against Harris being on the ballot because why?  We aren’t allowed to have a POTUS die or withdraw in the last year or during an election?  Mitch Mcconnell and Leonard Leo really have changed the rules.

[gehringer_2]

This is all almost silly at this point. Biden is only stepping aside if he decides to, and if he make that decision, that's end of story. OTOH, if the debate was a blip and he stays in and fights it out, my guess is that in the end he will get credit for having more stamina than his critics and by election time the age issue will be in the rear view mirror.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The SCOTUS will simply rule against Harris being on the ballot because why?  We aren’t allowed to have a POTUS die or withdraw in the last year or during an election?  Mitch Mcconnell and Leonard Leo really have changed the rules.

Trump will sue in every state. The Harris campaign would be nothing but fighting legal battles.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, romad1 said:

The SCOTUS will simply rule against Harris being on the ballot because why?  We aren’t allowed to have a POTUS die or withdraw in the last year or during an election?  Mitch Mcconnell and Leonard Leo really have changed the rules.

It's not necessarily a Scotus issue, in most states you have to have your nominating petitions in before the party convention....

Take a look
https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024

Already past the filing deadline for independents in 10 states.

There may be rules under which a party can replace a candidate - but you are going to get deeper into the weeds and probably end up in court.

Edited July 11, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

The Supreme Court literally overturned the election in 2000. You really want to try them again with an even worse Supreme Court?

[The Ronz]

22 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

There's got to be some sort of collusion. Some donor is taking these Dems hostage. 

Russian propaganda is coming from both sides.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, The Ronz said:

Russian propaganda is coming from both sides.

this is probably the most correct statement in several pages of this thread.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, The Ronz said:

Russian propaganda is coming from both sides.

I knew the propaganda had infiltrated leftists like the pro Hamas wing, but I didn't think it would infiltrate a normie like Scholten.  

[mtutiger]

11 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I have a question about Trump's support. We know from 2016 to 2020 that Trump drove his turnout and Republican turnout up overall. He got more votes in 2020 than 2016. What type or demographic of voters is Trump losing from his 2020 coalition and how many of them will he really lose in the end? Are there really a significant number of voters that voted for him in 2020, but won't do it again? Enough that it could push swing states on the margins towards Joe Biden?

I don't think Trump has lost a ton of support since 2020 but, to the extent that he has, you'd likely see it in suburban districts. Even with all of the issues that Biden and Democrats have right now, there's still a lot of people out here who hate his guts and will walk across glass to vote against him.

The bigger issue in this election is less about persuasion and more about turnout. Both sides will likely see a drop in this regard (ie. less people will vote in 2024 than in 2020) and, to the extent that Trump is having success right now, it's a combination of polls picking up a larger likely turnout of his voters relative to Biden and otherwise Dem voters withholding their votes in polling and either saying "unsure" or picking a third party candidate. Which is reflected in polling averages even since the debate, at least in national polling.... the increase in margin is more due to Biden dropping than it is Trump gaining share.

Edited July 11, 2024 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

What is missing in all the chattering class talk about replacing Biden is that the usual talk about 'brokered' conventions comes in the context of a primary campaign where the possible candidates were already contesting in the primaries and so had done the ground work to be eligible for the general should they get the nod at a convention outcome. Not the case here, you don't have any ballot qualified candidates.

That's why so little of this talk is from sources that Logan Roy would consider 'serious people', because people who are serious have to think through issues like this and propose answers before running their mouths.

Edited July 11, 2024 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

I still have the feeling we get a March 31, 1968 LBJ speech tonight. 

[mtutiger]

31 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Because the "elites" told them that Biden was the candidate, and these party elites made a full-court press to keep the young blood out of the primary to avoid damaging the incumbent. 

I understand what you are saying, but this just ignores the obvious issues that would accompany any candidate, whatever their perceived strength, would have in challenging an incumbent President running for reelection.

It's less about "the elites" and more about the incentive structure that exists for Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom or whoever in undertaking that possibility. Newsom in particular is rumored to have undertaken polling sometime after the 2022 Midterms and, from what I remember reading, found he would have gotten smoked in the primary. 

I haven't seen that story confirmed, but I'd be shocked if he or others hadn't polled it and found that result. And if any of us were in their shoes, I guarantee you none of us would risk our careers on that sort of kamikaze mission.

If you shoot for the King, you best not miss... as they say.

Edited July 11, 2024 by mtutiger