2024 Presidential Election thread

[mtutiger]

17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

if I'm Trump I can't see any reason to agree to another one. He's not facile enough to actually debate with Harris, so he can't do himself any more good than he already gotten out the night with Biden, and it gives Harris a huge platform where his supporters will see her in action  - when because the media segregation, they otherwise might never.

The big complication is the VP pick and the DNC, which will dominate the balance of August... Just tons of earned media exposure that will likely expose his supporters to her one way or another.

Obviously convention bumps are often ephemeral, but if you squint, you can see a world where, by the last week of August, his standing starts to look rather shaky and where he will need the debate. Not unlike where Biden was when his team agreed to the June debate

Edited July 27, 2024 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The big complication is the VP pick and the DNC, which will dominate the balance of August... Just tons of earned media exposure that will likely expose his supporters to her one way or another.

Obviously convention bumps are often ephemeral, but if you squint, you can see a world where, by the last week of August, his standing starts to look rather shaky and where he will need the debate. Not unlike where Biden was when his team agreed to the June debate

could be. Hillary took him apart in the their first debate but she faded in the later ones. Harris is probably higher energy today than Hillary was in 2016 and Trump is 8 yrs older and less focused/focusable than ever. If she turns that prosecutor's laser on Trump, Harris's biggest risk might be looking like she's being too mean to him - seriously.

[CMRivdogs]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

could be. Hillary took him apart in the their first debate but she faded in the later ones. Harris is probably higher energy today than Hillary was in 2016 and Trump is 8 yrs older and less focused/focusable than ever. If she turns that prosecutor's laser on Trump, Harris's biggest risk might be looking like she's being too mean to him - seriously.

There's still a large swath of undecided voters who don't like strong women. 

[mtutiger]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

could be. Hillary took him apart in the their first debate but she faded in the later ones. Harris is probably higher energy today than Hillary was in 2016 and Trump is 8 yrs older and less focused/focusable than ever. If she turns that prosecutor's laser on Trump, Harris's biggest risk might be looking like she's being too mean to him - seriously.

In terms of a debate, its all about striking the right balance. She needs to hold his feet to the fire, but to my comment earlier today, she has to project the happy warrior and she has to put forward her own path forward. 

I'm not saying it will be easy, and she has landmines of her own that she will have to disarm along the way... But the early returns suggest that she's striking the right balance and understands the assignment. That's all I can ask for as someone who supports her candidacy 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, mtutiger said:

In terms of a debate, its all about striking the right balance. She needs to hold his feet to the fire, but to my comment earlier today, she has to project the happy warrior and she has to put forward her own path forward. 

I'm not saying it will be easy, and she has landmines of her own that she will have to disarm along the way... But the early returns suggest that she's striking the right balance and understands the assignment. That's all I can ask for as someone who supports her candidacy 

I expect also expect another initiative from the Admin that plays well - possibly a deal in Gaza. Harris has been more vocal in criticizing Netanyahu's conduct of the war, so Biden may be able to get a little 'good cop/bad cop" thing going to extract a little from Bibi on the threat of Harris replacing him and US demands just getting tougher. Of course if Bibi expects Trump to win, he won't care.

[CMRivdogs]

 

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I expect also expect another initiative from the Admin that plays well - possibly a deal in Gaza. Harris has been more vocal in criticizing Netanyahu's conduct of the war, so Biden may be able to get a little 'good cop/bad cop" thing going to extract a little from Bibi on the threat of Harris replacing him and US demands just getting tougher. Of course if Bibi expects Trump to win, he won't care.

It's a really good point, as terrible and pathetic as it is, how receptive Bibi is to a deal may be contingent on polling is going forward in this election. 

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Three months is still an eternity in politics. The favorable rating are interesting. 

 

 

I want to focus on Minnesota for a second... Two polls today:

This is a state that, as recently as this week, Trump staffers were talking up opening offices and playing for. And polling wise, it has now reverted to something really similar to what it was four years ago.

The Pennsylvania poll is more important, especially knowing that Josh Shapiro is potentially the front runner for the VP nomination...

But I do think what we have learned this week is that the battlefield is what we thought it would be: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA NC, NE-02. And all the talk about MN, VA or even NJ and NY is all BS

[CMRivdogs]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I want to focus on Minnesota for a second... Two polls today:

 

But I do think what we have learned this week is that the battlefield is what we thought it would be: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA NC, NE-02. And all the talk about MN, VA or even NJ and NY is all BS

I agree. The usual 7 tossup states are the most important. I've heard some talk about Harris being in Pennsylvania Monday. Shapiro will be there as well. His favorables are way up, but does he translate to Michigan or Wisconsin? 

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

When did the Republicans ever have a good family policy?  

[Tiger337]

One thing I have noticed in polls is that Harris seems to do slightly better than Biden in polls that include Kennedy.  It seems like undecideds were choosing Kennedy over Biden more than they choose Kennedy over Harris.   

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

One thing I have noticed in polls is that Harris seems to do slightly better than Biden in polls that include Kennedy.  It seems like undecideds were choosing Kennedy over Biden more than they choose Kennedy over Harris.   

agree

[romad1]

When they complain about couches and dolphins

screw

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I agree. The usual 7 tossup states are the most important. I've heard some talk about Harris being in Pennsylvania Monday. Shapiro will be there as well. His favorables are way up, but does he translate to Michigan or Wisconsin? 

I don't know if he translates to MI/WI or other states, but Pennsylvania is the most important state on the map in this election because it has the most EC votes and it opens up more pathways to a win. 

The polling yesterday showing a very tight race in GA is a good example of how important PA is... with both of those states combined, only one other state (aside from Nevada) would clinch it.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[pfife]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

There may end up being one, but not clear why he pulled out as of this one. His rationale doesn't make a whole lot of sense

Hence why conclusions are being drawn.

Spculation - I think he wanted to get Biden on stage so badly he didn't care about the rules.   And turns out it worked...  too well even  

Now I think he doesn't want the rules he agreed to with a more competent opponent.   I think she should keep calling him a beta coward bish for not debating, but switching out the debate opponent seems like it would be a violation of the debate agreement LOL.

[pfife]

2 hours ago, 1776 said:

I believe the polls will determine whether or not he’ll debate her. Kind of the flip side of your point, if he trails in the polls by a margin that doesn’t favor his campaign, I think he debates her. Sort of a “get out of jail” card if you will. Yes, the pun is there. If he is up a comfortable percentage, I could see him saying no to a debate. 
However, your last sentence will likely win out.

Yeah the candidate that's losing always wants 87 debates because as we just saw, debates can really influence an election.   If he's behind it's a hail Mary. 

[pfife]

2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

Dictator from Day One. If he's elected forget about those planned 2026 celebrations

 

Holy schlitz

 

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, pfife said:

Spculation - I think he wanted to get Biden on stage so badly he didn't care about the rules.   And turns out it worked...  too well even  

Now I think he doesn't want the rules he agreed to with a more competent opponent.   I think she should keep calling him a beta coward bish for not debating, but switching out the debate opponent seems like it would be a violation of the debate agreement LOL.

Oh sure, that's probably right. 

The optics are still terrible and he deserves every bit of judgment he gets out of it. Because if the shoe were on the other foot, he'd be doing it too. (And I think 1776 knows that)

Edited July 27, 2024 by mtutiger

[pfife]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Not unlike where Biden was when his team agreed to the June debate

I can't wait to read a book or something around why they challenged Trump to debates and why one June.     That decision effectively ended Bidens political career.

 

 

 

 

[Tigeraholic1]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

LOL

[pfife]

Interesting..... I remember a few days ago when MagaLolic was against people who belittled religion - now he posts videos of them.  

Edited July 27, 2024 by pfife

[pfife]

In more important news that Bill Maher's opinion on Vice President Harris,

Donald Trump said you won't have to vote again in 4 years.